Projected total for finals

the official tournament of the Mystery Card player sets

Moderators: Juiced JC, Palmtana

  • Author
  • Message
Offline

waynick

  • Posts: 526
  • Joined: Wed Sep 19, 2012 3:06 pm

Projected total for finals

PostThu Apr 28, 2022 11:04 am

My guess is that it will take about 470 to get into the final 24. We have 54 regular season games left, so 84 possible points are available.
Offline

franky35

  • Posts: 1961
  • Joined: Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:44 am

Re: Projected total for finals

PostSat May 14, 2022 1:47 am

470 looks to be about dead on. At the end of the regular season, it's very likely that the top 20 in the current rankings will qualify for the semis. That leaves 8 players competing for the final 4 spots. 7 of those are in the playoffs - 1, brifas, is currently ranked at #21 with 470 points but is not in the playoffs. Gorman, daveaq, and jsanders are currently in and will be locks with a win in the first round of the playoffs. Death from Above, merkle and waynick need to win in the first round and then need tiebreaks or a league championship or other teams to lose. mburatti needs to win his league championship to make the semis. Death from Above plays #20 canauscot in the first round of the playoffs in League 3, so that will be a critical series.
Offline

Juiced JC

  • Posts: 1459
  • Joined: Wed Dec 21, 2016 10:44 pm

Re: Projected total for finals

PostSat May 14, 2022 8:31 am

It looks like there's only 5 teams outside the top 24 that are within 10 points and that are in their 2000s league playoffs. So we have 29 teams alive for the top 24 spots, with all of these teams either adding 0, 5 or 10 to their total depending on how the 2000s playoffs go:

1. gritch 515
2. franky35 505
3. jaywalker72 495
4. Studmeister 490
5. hallerose 487
6. RICHARDGAGNON 486
7. piloneus382 484
8. sphilipp8 480
8. pushpin76 480
8. taxchiefs 480
11. chris_s 478
12. guardman9 477
12. ed1447 477
14. sprow01 476
15. Takanahana 475
15. The BC Manager 475
17. jmdziuban2 474
18. Ciachefpete 472
18. AdamKatz 472
20. canauscot 471
21. brifas 470
22. Dan Gorman 469
23. daveaq31 468
23. jsanders3rd 468
------------------------
25. Death_From_Above 467
26. merkle08 465
28. waynick 464
31. mburatti76 461
33. lgschreck 458
Offline

The BC Manager

  • Posts: 754
  • Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:05 pm

Re: Projected total for finals

PostSat May 14, 2022 12:15 pm

By my calculations, the top 19 have clinched their spots in the semis.

Juiced, what happens in event of a tie for the 24th spot, or a tie for the 10th spot after the semis? What's the tiebreaker?
Offline

AdamKatz

  • Posts: 348
  • Joined: Tue Aug 28, 2012 3:09 am

Re: Projected total for finals

PostSat May 14, 2022 1:12 pm

Having done no independent review, I agree with BC Manager's assesment that the top 19 have clinched their spots and we should make that official, regardless of the actual results.

Signed, #19.
Offline

franky35

  • Posts: 1961
  • Joined: Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:44 am

Re: Projected total for finals

PostSat May 14, 2022 8:12 pm

assuming that each playoff series is a coinflip, I calculate the odds of making the semis as:
lgschreck 4.7%
mburatti 7.0%

Death from Above 50%
daveaq 56%

Gorman 68.8%
brifas 67.6%
canauscot 98.2%
Last edited by franky35 on Sun May 15, 2022 1:00 am, edited 1 time in total.
Offline

Juiced JC

  • Posts: 1459
  • Joined: Wed Dec 21, 2016 10:44 pm

Re: Projected total for finals

PostSat May 14, 2022 10:06 pm

Tiebreakers
1. Championships won
2. Finals made
3. Playoffs made
4. Regular season total wins
5. Pick 3 winner

In the event of a 3-way or more tie, we go back to #1 after a team is eliminated from the tie-breaker (if required).
Offline

franky35

  • Posts: 1961
  • Joined: Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:44 am

Re: Projected total for finals

PostThu May 19, 2022 12:02 am

through the first 5 playoff games, not much has been decided. I think the only series decided so far is Dan Gorman winning and clinching a spot in the semi-finals.
Offline

franky35

  • Posts: 1961
  • Joined: Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:44 am

Re: Projected total for finals

PostFri May 20, 2022 1:11 am

Game 6 decided several series. lgshreck and merkle (who is usually near the top in rankings) lost and are out. jsanders3rd won and clinched a spot in the semi-finals. The win by jasanders and previous win by Gorman push brifas to #23 in the rankings. waynick won, putting him at 469 - just below brifas. mburatti won and moves to 466. Game 7 will makes things a lot more clear. Canauscot and Death-from-above face each other in Game 7. Its gotten very simple for Daveaq in Game 7 - win and clinch or lose and wait til next year. If both Death_from_Above and Daveaq win, then brifas is out. In any case, we'll have to wait for the world series outcomes to determine the complete list of teams in the semifinals.
Offline

franky35

  • Posts: 1961
  • Joined: Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:44 am

Re: Projected total for finals

PostSat May 21, 2022 12:21 am

Game 7 results - daveaq won, canauscot defeated Death-from-above 2-1 on a triple by Ryan Church in the bottom of the 9th. Both daveaq and canauscot clinch a spot in the semi-finals. 23 teams have clinched (unofficially).

That leaves 3 teams vying for 1 spot. Waynick is in the driver's seat - win and make the semi-finals (50% odds), mburatti - win in the finals coupled with a loss by waynick (25% odds). At 470, brifas is in only with losses by both waynick and mburatti (25% odds).

On April 28, waynick wrote "My guess is that it will take about 470 to get into the final 24." So, Carnack - what is going to happen with the semifinals?
Next

Return to --- Mystery Tournament

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest