Range vs. Error ratings

Discuss different strategies for any of our player sets

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mickeybuhl

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Range vs. Error ratings

PostFri Apr 17, 2020 4:55 am

What is more important - range or error rating? For example, is a 1e40 shortstop better than a 2e10 shortstop? Is there a balance point when a 2 range with lower error is better than a 1 with higher e rating?
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coyote303

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Re: Range vs. Error ratings

PostFri Apr 17, 2020 2:27 pm

I figure it out this way. It's not exact, but close enough:

X chances per year if played full season:
SS = 190
2B = 162
3B = 81
1B = 54
CF = 81
LF/RF = 54

infield multiplier:
1 = 0
2 = 10% (2 chances out of 20 go for a base hit)
3 = 20%
4 = 30%
5 = 40%

outfield multiplier:
1=0
2=15% (3 chances out of 20 go for a base hit)
3 = 30%
4 = 45%
5 = 60%

Now multiply the X chances per year by the appropriate multiplier. For example, your 2e10 shortstop will give up (190 * 10%) 19 base hits during the year. So your 2e10 will give up about 29 hits or errors if he plays a full season--better than your 1e40 SS (who would make 40 errors*). However, your SS-1 will start several more double plays. Also, since a hit and error can occur on the same play, the chance for a batter to reach base against your SS 2e10 is closer to 28 per season.

Since runners get held and infields sometimes play in, several more hits are actually given up by infielders. However, that affects every rating equally (except 5), so I don't bother figuring that in.

I am basing the X chances per year on 36 rolls per game by the offensive team. Obviously, this is just an estimate, and the number will vary depending on your team and league.

*Note SOM's e ratings are based on the number of errors committed if the fielder played every inning of every game. So, no calculation for that is necessary. Simply add the e rating to the chances for a hit calculation to get a number you can compare.
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davidwb

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Re: Range vs. Error ratings

PostFri Apr 17, 2020 7:34 pm

That was a really complete reply, Coyote...thanks from all of us who are fairly new.

I drafted for range, HRs, and playing time -- your analysis suggests that the 1s on my team (6 out of 8 position players) with relatively low E scores should save a bunch of on bases against me. I did it seat-of-the-pants because it seemed to make sense. Glad I did.
c: 1(-3) E3
1b: 1 E12
2b: 1 E16
3b: 2 E23
ss: 1 E14
lf: 3(-1) E11
cf: 1(-2) E5
rf: 1 (-3) E10

I'm fine as long as my opponent doesn't hit to the left side!
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mickeybuhl

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Re: Range vs. Error ratings

PostSat Apr 18, 2020 2:41 pm

Coyote - thank you. That was super helpful. Really appreciate it.

David - you must have paid a lot for that defense - should prevent a lot of runs. I'll be curious how your run prevention strategy plays out.
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mickeybuhl

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Re: Range vs. Error ratings

PostSat Apr 18, 2020 4:34 pm

Coyote - do you have a calculation for catcher defense? I thought I was doing great with Ray Schalk who is 1e4 but he's among the league leaders in errors. Maybe the T rating is more significant than I expected.
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freeman

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Re: Range vs. Error ratings

PostSat Apr 18, 2020 6:56 pm

You might take a look at an article by Dean Carrano. It gives you a way to calculate runs created by an offensive player and also defensive runs saved/lost. It's a PDF file. Just google Dean Carrano Stratomatic defensive ratings and it will come up.
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freeman

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Re: Range vs. Error ratings

PostSat Apr 18, 2020 7:16 pm

Catchers get a separate rating T1-20 rating rating. On 15% of stolen base chances a 1-20 die is rolled and if the number equals or exceeds your T rating there is a throwing error. So if you have a T20 rating you'll have errors on 15% of stolen base chances and a T1 will have an error on .75% of stolen base attempts. A weak catcher's arm and/or weak pitcher holds will result in more attempts (and hence more throwing errors). Catchers also have a passed ball rating 1-5 (from 1 in 20 chance of a passed ball to 1 in 5) that comes 2.5% of the time when runners are on base. There are three Schalk cards--not sure which one you are using-- but he has one fairly bad T rating (T13) and his passed ball ratings arent great. If you're using his T13 card that might explain perhaps in combination with the passed balls.

All this you can on Strat.

https://365.strat-o-matic.com/help/hittercard
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milleram

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Re: Range vs. Error ratings

PostSat Apr 18, 2020 9:13 pm

mickeybuhl wrote:What is more important - range or error rating? For example, is a 1e40 shortstop better than a 2e10 shortstop? Is there a balance point when a 2 range with lower error is better than a 1 with higher e rating?


To answer your particular question--a SS1e40 would be worse than a SS2e10. At SS a range rating is about equal to about 19 errors (a 2SS will give up 19 more singles over the course of a year) though a 1 SS will turn more DP--so you might push that up to a e24 equivalent. At 2b more of an e20 equivalent.

With this chart add the H+E and TB per game columns together..... a 2e10 is 19.3 and a 1e40 is 27.7 (this is On base + total bases allowed by the fielder in card chances)-- again this does not take DP turned into consideration.

If you get strategy guides , they give you those same numbers for each hitter (OB and TB in card chances)

https://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/bt ... atfldg.htm
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freeman

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Re: Range vs. Error ratings

PostSat Apr 18, 2020 9:36 pm

For ATG (which he is playing) take a look here for a breakdown of hitters' hits, OBP, slugging.

http://diamonddope.com/help.cfm

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