Defensive Play Possibilities

Discuss different strategies for any of our player sets

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zzkev6

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Defensive Play Possibilities

PostWed Mar 29, 2017 5:04 pm

Does anyone have a chart or something indicating approx. how many defensive play possibilities we should expect in a given season by position? I know the positions that have more action such as SS and 2B and CF, but was wondering if anyone had come up with something to indicate such
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coyote303

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Re: Defensive Play Possibilities

PostWed Mar 29, 2017 11:47 pm

If you figure 36 plate appearances per game, here are how many chances each position will see in a year. Of course, 36 is an arbitrary estimate which will vary by team.

SS = 189
2B = 162
C, 3B, CF = 81
P, 1B, LF, RF = 54

Edit: I briefly had incorrect numbers up. This was fixed.
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zzkev6

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Re: Defensive Play Possibilities

PostFri Mar 31, 2017 4:42 pm

Awesome....thanks for sharing
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the ghost of roger maris

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Re: Defensive Play Possibilities

PostSun Apr 16, 2017 9:57 pm

if you then take the lowest group as the baseline you can see that the SS will have 3.5 as many GBX as P,1B, RF, LF etc
P, 1B, LF, RF = 54 54 1 (54/54)
C, 3B, CF = 81 81 1.5 (81/54)
2B = 162 162 3
SS = 189 189 3.5

which is why many folks will not play anything but 1 and 2s at SS and 2B
vivan Correcaminos! Andale! Andale!
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J-Pav

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Re: Defensive Play Possibilities

PostWed Apr 19, 2017 4:08 pm

The simplest method I can think of -

Just go to your recently completed teams and click the Sim Fielding tab. All of the X chances and subsequent outs are recorded right there.

My last team had only one platoon (LF) and basically seven full time players.

The results:

SS had 201 X chance opportunities (25% of all X chances)
2B had 170 (21% of all X chances)

C had 64 (8% of all X chances)
3B had 68 (8% of all X chances)
CF had 68 (8% of all X chances)

1B had 65 (8% of all X chances)
LF had 66 (two players combined - 8% of all X chances)
RF had 42 (5% of all X chances)

The remaining players (incl pitchers) had 9% or so of all X chances.

Looking at a couple of my other teams, these numbers seem to be about ballpark for expectations, although admittedly there are outliers. For instance on this team, 1B and LF seemed to see a little more than their fair share.
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J-Pav

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Re: Defensive Play Possibilities

PostWed Apr 19, 2017 4:19 pm

Deep in the weeds (http://www.mfooz.com/bblog/wp-content/u ... efense.pdf):

A. How Many X-Rolls?

Our question in this section is: In the time it takes a player to get 108 PA rolled off his hitting card, how many X-rolls on defense can we expect him to get?

Well, he only gets his card rolled half the time that he's up; that gets us up to 216 PA. And since he has eight teammates and they all bat in order, he only hits 1/9 (11.1%) of the time. That gets us up to (216 / 11.1%) = 1,946 total rolls, in order to hit that one batter's hitting card 108 times.

Since all SOM pitchers have the same exact X-rolls, we know precisely what the chance of each X-roll is, just by knowing dice probabilities. (These are provided by Madsen. They are the total probabilities, not the probabilities given that the roll is off the pitcher's card, so we don't need to halve that 1,946.)

Table 1: Probabilities of Each X-Roll

1B 2B 3B SS LF/RF CF P

0.93% 2.78% 1.39% 3.24% 0.93% 1.39% 0.93%

Multiply all of those by 1,946, and you get:

Table 2: Number of X-Rolls Per 108 Offensive PA

1B 2B 3B SS LF/RF CF P

18 54 27 63 18 27 18

That answers our question. We can expect a SS to field 63 (ss) X rolls in the time it takes him to get 108 rolls off his card on offense; a 1B to field 18 (1b) X rolls; etc. In the defensive NERP allowed formula -- which again is

(TB * .318) [- (.333 * DP)] + (OB * .25) - (AB * .085) -- Table 2's numbers will be our “AB” for each position.
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J-Pav

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Re: Defensive Play Possibilities

PostWed Apr 19, 2017 4:21 pm

Easy peasy.
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STEVE F

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Re: Defensive Play Possibilities

PostWed Apr 19, 2017 4:42 pm

J-Pav wrote:The simplest method I can think of -

Just go to your recently completed teams and click the Sim Fielding tab. All of the X chances and subsequent outs are recorded right there.

My last team had only one platoon (LF) and basically seven full time players.

The results:

SS had 201 X chance opportunities (25% of all X chances)
2B had 170 (21% of all X chances)

C had 64 (8% of all X chances)
3B had 68 (8% of all X chances)
CF had 68 (8% of all X chances)

1B had 65 (8% of all X chances)
LF had 66 (two players combined - 8% of all X chances)
RF had 42 (5% of all X chances)

The remaining players (incl pitchers) had 9% or so of all X chances.

Looking at a couple of my other teams, these numbers seem to be about ballpark for expectations, although admittedly there are outliers. For instance on this team, 1B and LF seemed to see a little more than their fair share.


In this example, are you accounting for the 2 X rolls for the pitcher? based on the middle infield rolls it would appear not. 13/28 aprox 46% but 13/30 aprox 43%
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J-Pav

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Re: Defensive Play Possibilities

PostThu Apr 20, 2017 10:19 am

J-Pav wrote:The remaining players (incl pitchers) had 9% or so of all X chances.


To be more specific, it appears the pitchers contributed 47 X chances, or just a little less than 6% of the overall total (819 total team X chances). I assume Verlander (e33), Narveson and Treinen (both e51) had something to do with that.

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