- Posts: 1515
- Joined: Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:01 pm
- Location: Colorado
Sat Sep 05, 2020 2:54 pm
Note: This is a long thread, but if you want to improve your mystery game, read it!
New league concept! Sign up today. In this mystery league, I get $80 million dollars and everyone else gets $70 million.
1. ($80M) coyote303
2. ($70M)
3. ($70M)
4. ($70M)
5. ($70M)
6. ($70M)
…
Okay, I’m not really starting a league with this silly concept. Nobody would want to play in it (except for maybe me). However, some mystery leagues end up being as if this was the concept. How? Over-zealous roster moves by managers, especially after the drop penalty goes up. Eventually, these “busy” managers’ roster values get down to around $70 million.
For example, in my present 60s league, I created a spreadsheet comparing wins and current roster values after 81 games. In 10 out of 12 cases, the roster value predicted the standings (i.e., more roster value equated to more wins).
The fun of a mystery league is the work starts after the season begins. It is vital to drop players with stinker years and seek out players that will make your team competitive. Injury reveals are your best clues, but there are many other clues, which are covered in other threads. However, many managers use the worst clue of all: performance after just a handful of at bats or innings pitched. In other words, you just can’t tell which card someone has after 30 at bats--unless you have a solid clue (for example, hitting a ballpark homerun when some years the batter has a W rating).
I realize that sometimes you get off to a bad start, and you are desperate to turn things around. However, learn the secrets of evaluating cards to avoid cutting players who turn out to have good or even excellent seasons. Figuring out which season a player has is as much art as science, which makes the mystery concept so challenging and fun.
TL;DR: Don’t be too quick to drop a player unless you have sufficient evidence he is on a bad year.
Here are some additional thoughts concerning this concept:
1. There are different styles. For example, I’m pretty conservative in making roster moves. Yet, the best manager I ever competed against (franky, I’m talking about you!), was much more aggressive in turning over his personnel. So, find what works for you; just be smart about it!
2. Spend extra time evaluating your roster after 39 games and after 78 games because following your next series, the drop penalty goes up.
3. Some players don’t have a bad season. Don’t drop these players just because they are doing poorly (e.g., in the 60s, Frank Robinson or Hoyt Wilhelm).
4. Once you determine for sure a player has a good season, never drop him just because he is doing poorly.
5. There are exceptions to not cutting a player sooner rather than later. Just be sure you have a good reason before doing it.
6. The 60s are an extra challenge because the talent pool of really good players is thin. Wait too long, and there might not be any fresh, high-value replacements.
7. Once in a while, it pays to check on injury reveals when another manager cuts a player. I have picked up players who were on their best year because the former manager didn’t look at the evidence the injury provided.
8. Plan multi-player moves before you make your first move. It's awful to realize you don't have quite enough to pick up that last player you were planning on getting. The worst is to add a player and drop him immediately. Double check your figures before making the first move, and be sure to correctly figure in the drop penalty.
9. If you ever see a free agent show up in preseason that you really want, don’t wait to pick him up. All my advice above kicks in after the season (and the drop penalty) starts.
New league concept! Sign up today. In this mystery league, I get $80 million dollars and everyone else gets $70 million.
1. ($80M) coyote303
2. ($70M)
3. ($70M)
4. ($70M)
5. ($70M)
6. ($70M)
…
Okay, I’m not really starting a league with this silly concept. Nobody would want to play in it (except for maybe me). However, some mystery leagues end up being as if this was the concept. How? Over-zealous roster moves by managers, especially after the drop penalty goes up. Eventually, these “busy” managers’ roster values get down to around $70 million.
For example, in my present 60s league, I created a spreadsheet comparing wins and current roster values after 81 games. In 10 out of 12 cases, the roster value predicted the standings (i.e., more roster value equated to more wins).
The fun of a mystery league is the work starts after the season begins. It is vital to drop players with stinker years and seek out players that will make your team competitive. Injury reveals are your best clues, but there are many other clues, which are covered in other threads. However, many managers use the worst clue of all: performance after just a handful of at bats or innings pitched. In other words, you just can’t tell which card someone has after 30 at bats--unless you have a solid clue (for example, hitting a ballpark homerun when some years the batter has a W rating).
I realize that sometimes you get off to a bad start, and you are desperate to turn things around. However, learn the secrets of evaluating cards to avoid cutting players who turn out to have good or even excellent seasons. Figuring out which season a player has is as much art as science, which makes the mystery concept so challenging and fun.
TL;DR: Don’t be too quick to drop a player unless you have sufficient evidence he is on a bad year.
Here are some additional thoughts concerning this concept:
1. There are different styles. For example, I’m pretty conservative in making roster moves. Yet, the best manager I ever competed against (franky, I’m talking about you!), was much more aggressive in turning over his personnel. So, find what works for you; just be smart about it!
2. Spend extra time evaluating your roster after 39 games and after 78 games because following your next series, the drop penalty goes up.
3. Some players don’t have a bad season. Don’t drop these players just because they are doing poorly (e.g., in the 60s, Frank Robinson or Hoyt Wilhelm).
4. Once you determine for sure a player has a good season, never drop him just because he is doing poorly.
5. There are exceptions to not cutting a player sooner rather than later. Just be sure you have a good reason before doing it.
6. The 60s are an extra challenge because the talent pool of really good players is thin. Wait too long, and there might not be any fresh, high-value replacements.
7. Once in a while, it pays to check on injury reveals when another manager cuts a player. I have picked up players who were on their best year because the former manager didn’t look at the evidence the injury provided.
8. Plan multi-player moves before you make your first move. It's awful to realize you don't have quite enough to pick up that last player you were planning on getting. The worst is to add a player and drop him immediately. Double check your figures before making the first move, and be sure to correctly figure in the drop penalty.
9. If you ever see a free agent show up in preseason that you really want, don’t wait to pick him up. All my advice above kicks in after the season (and the drop penalty) starts.