Should I keep or let him go?

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Icterus Galbuli

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Should I keep or let him go?

PostFri Feb 02, 2018 8:08 pm

So in the 60's set I picked up Sam Bowens to platoon against left-handed pitching.

He only has one good card, 1964, with a .263ba .323obp .453slg .776ops 3L ..if I can hit that card he is a good option against lefties and is a rf-2 (-1)

So we are cruising along and he's doing well...against LHP he's hitting .266ba .296obp .606slg .902ops in 94 at bats WITH 9 homeruns!!! I am just sure I've lucked up with his ONE good card.

Then he gets injured and I check ...and I double check ...and I triple check

...and he's on his 1965 card!!! .163avg .199obp .296slg .495 ops !!! 5L
...even against lefthanders that card produces an out 90% of the time!!

So do I keep playing him until my luck changes? or just count the blessings I've received and get a new outfielder against LHP?
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madal

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Re: Should I keep or let him go?

PostFri Feb 02, 2018 10:58 pm

What's his H/P splits? How deep into the season are you? Do you think you can better numbers from a FA? Your question is keep or let go, I'd keep if in the 10% drop range, and was reasonably within playoff range, but re-evaluate early and often.
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coyote303

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Re: Should I keep or let him go?

PostFri Feb 02, 2018 11:18 pm

Here's two rules you can take to the bank:

1. If you know you have a good card, never cut a player no matter how poorly he is doing.

2. If you know you have a bad card, cut the player no matter how well he is doing.

The only time a decision is tough is if you have an in-between card. However, even then base your decision on the card (once you know for sure which one it is) and never base it on performance (again, assuming you know which year you have).

One last point is some players may have four or even all five seasons that are worth keeping. Obviously, that's not the case with Mr. Bowens. Cut him.
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Radagast Brown

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Re: Should I keep or let him go?

PostSun Feb 18, 2018 4:21 pm

I agree with the above advice...

I have been in this game ten years or more,
doing things you never did before!
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paul8210

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Re: Should I keep or let him go?

PostMon Feb 19, 2018 1:41 pm

It's never that simple. Bowens' 1965 card is a tremendous homerun threat against left handers in a home-run park. Imagine a 1-4, 1-6, or 1-8 roll for a home-run (13 points). That's not really what's on his card because of the ballpark homer opportunities, splits, and what-not, but, that pretty much describes the pinch-hitting threat from him in the bottom of the ninth against their left-handed relief pitcher at Fenway.

Now, if you've got a better way to spend .98 million because you've already got a right-handed pinch-hitting power threat and you and your foes play in Dodger Stadium and there are no left-handers in your division because they've all been burned at the stake and you've found a cheaper player with a higher batting average/OPB (like, uh-I-don't-know, Mike Kekich, for example?), well, that's another story.

There's never a 100% certainty that a 1965 5L Sam Bowens doesn't belong on a roster. Not much of a ringing endorsement, but, there you go.
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ScumbyJr

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Re: Should I keep or let him go?

PostTue Feb 20, 2018 3:48 pm

Icterus Galbuli wrote:So in the 60's set I picked up Sam Bowens to platoon against left-handed pitching.

He only has one good card, 1964, with a .263ba .323obp .453slg .776ops 3L ..if I can hit that card he is a good option against lefties and is a rf-2 (-1)

So we are cruising along and he's doing well...against LHP he's hitting .266ba .296obp .606slg .902ops in 94 at bats WITH 9 homeruns!!! I am just sure I've lucked up with his ONE good card.

Then he gets injured and I check ...and I double check ...and I triple check

...and he's on his 1965 card!!! .163avg .199obp .296slg .495 ops !!! 5L
...even against lefthanders that card produces an out 90% of the time!!

So do I keep playing him until my luck changes? or just count the blessings I've received and get a new outfielder against LHP?


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