Projected Total

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ScumbyJr

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Re: Projected Total

PostSat Oct 28, 2017 8:32 am

stevep107 wrote:ProjRank LastYear Manager League 1 League 2 League 3 League 4 League 5 Top4 Projected Top4
1 Komodos069 82 103 94 95 97 389 389 &
2 mbertolli 97 94 80 95 97 383 383 &
3 S ringojb 98 118 83 78 83 382 382 &
4 milleram 95 91 84 95 100 381 381 &
5 S rudys raiders 98 92 82 98 82 370 370 &
6 S sebastian 92 88 81 98 91 369 369 &
7 dharmabums 96 68 96 85 90 367 367 &
7 S bob711 91 90 99 87 78 367 367 &
7 S chris_s 101 76 85 95 86 367 367 &
10 albert2b 93 86 94 76 93 366 366 &
10 egnaro 84 97 99 80 86 366 366 &
12 ute3333 92 73 97 81 95 365 365 &
13 S exwallman 81 100 82 101 81 364 364 &
13 Hittmens 91 86 91 87 95 364 364 +
15 S Jeepdriver 84 97 90 89 86 362 362 &
16 S Gilbo 71 79 95 91 96 361 361 &
17 keyzick 93 84 100 83 79 360 360 &
17 mesquiton 88 94 78 100 72 360 360 &
19 marklen 86 103 94 76 71 359 359 #
19 TIMOTHYFOSTER 82 85 96 76 96 359 359 &
19 samh0711 80 100 82 85 92 359 359 &
22 Islander22 85 95 91 72 84 355 355 &
23 blsmith7 81 83 88 89 87 347 353 ^
23 F Stoney18 86 97 81 74 89 353 353 &
23 Riggodrill 80 78 80 91 96 347 353 ^
26 S bbfan 93 91 95 73 62 352 352 &
27 karphenry 78 80 84 103 83 350 350 &
27 dalekeener 95 89 61 86 80 350 350 &
27 S cristano1 79 86 100 80 84 350 350 &
30 F stevep107 77 102 88 76 82 349 349 &
30 foggyone 92 82 86 83 88 349 349 &
30 kihoover 86 72 95 90 78 349 349 &
33 2cityfan 98 71 82 89 79 348 348 &
34 S ScumbyJr 75 72 100 94 78 347 347 &
34 rickburr 81 93 79 75 94 347 347 &
36 S edgecitytx 83 89 75 91 83 346 346 &
36 pacoboy 77 92 65 94 83 346 346 &
36 ycbill 78 84 79 102 81 346 346 &
39 F wjb23 84 76 82 96 83 345 345 &
40 JMROZINSKI 83 86 73 80 94 343 343 &
41 lferenti123 77 92 75 77 96 342 342 +
42 AZHawg 76 85 79 92 85 341 341 &
42 twonewb 89 79 76 97 71 341 341 &
42 eadlew 70 98 79 76 88 341 341 +
S - made semi-finals in 2016.
F - made finals in 2016.
& - Final score.
$ - made playoffs in round 5. An extra 0-8 games could be added to the final score.
+ - won semi-finals in round 5. An additional 0-4 games could be added to final score.
% - lost semi-finals in round 5. Final score.
^ - Round 5 not yet completed. Likely to make the playoffs.
# - Round 5 not yet completed. Unlikely to make the playoffs.

Looks like the number required to ensure a place in the top 36 is 347.

One team that finishes with 346 points will also make it through also (either pacoboy, edgecitytx or ycbill) but lferenti123 and eadlew both also have a chance to finish with 346.


Looks like the final spot is between ycbill who currently holds tiebreaker with 1 championship and eadlaw (currently
in the finals) who could take the tiebreaker with 1 championship and 2 finals. Correct?????
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eadlew

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Re: Projected Total

PostTue Oct 31, 2017 2:40 am

I just won my league, which puts me into a tie for 36th and, because of the win, also provides me the tiebreaker. However, please verify. eadlew
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stevep107

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Re: Projected Total

PostTue Oct 31, 2017 4:25 am

ProjRank LastYear Manager League 1 League 2 League 3 League 4 League 5 Top4 Projected Top4
1 Komodos069 82 103 94 95 97 389 389 &
2 mbertolli 97 94 80 95 97 383 383 &
3 S ringojb 98 118 83 78 83 382 382 &
4 milleram 95 91 84 95 100 381 381 &
5 S rudys raiders 98 92 82 98 82 370 370 &
6 S sebastian 92 88 81 98 91 369 369 &
6 dharmabums 96 68 96 85 92 369 369 &
8 S bob711 91 90 99 87 78 367 367 &
8 S chris_s 101 76 85 95 86 367 367 &
10 albert2b 93 86 94 76 93 366 366 &
10 egnaro 84 97 99 80 86 366 366 &
12 ute3333 92 73 97 81 95 365 365 &
13 S exwallman 81 100 82 101 81 364 364 &
13 Hittmens 91 86 91 87 95 364 364 &
15 S Jeepdriver 84 97 90 89 86 362 362 &
16 S Gilbo 71 79 95 91 96 361 361 &
17 keyzick 93 84 100 83 79 360 360 &
17 mesquiton 88 94 78 100 72 360 360 &
19 marklen 86 103 94 76 73 359 359 &
19 TIMOTHYFOSTER 82 85 96 76 96 359 359 &
19 samh0711 80 100 82 85 92 359 359 &
22 Islander22 85 95 91 72 84 355 355 &
23 F Stoney18 86 97 81 74 89 353 353 &
23 Riggodrill 80 78 80 91 99 350 353 $
25 blsmith7 81 83 88 89 89 349 352 $
25 S bbfan 93 91 95 73 62 352 352 &
27 karphenry 78 80 84 103 83 350 350 &
27 dalekeener 95 89 61 86 80 350 350 &
27 S cristano1 79 86 100 80 84 350 350 &
30 F stevep107 77 102 88 76 82 349 349 &
30 foggyone 92 82 86 83 88 349 349 &
30 kihoover 86 72 95 90 78 349 349 &
33 2cityfan 98 71 82 89 79 348 348 &
34 S ScumbyJr 75 72 100 94 78 347 347 &
34 rickburr 81 93 79 75 94 347 347 &
36 S edgecitytx 83 89 75 91 83 346 346 &
36 pacoboy 77 92 65 94 83 346 346 &
36 ycbill 78 84 79 102 81 346 346 &
39 eadlew 70 98 79 76 93 346 346 &
40 F wjb23 84 76 82 96 83 345 345 &
41 JMROZINSKI 83 86 73 80 94 343 343 &
42 lferenti123 77 92 75 77 96 342 342 &
43 AZHawg 76 85 79 92 85 341 341 &
43 twonewb 89 79 76 97 71 341 341 &
S - made semi-finals in 2016.
F - made finals in 2016.
& - Final score.
$ - made playoffs in round 5. An extra 0-8 games could be added to the final score.


It appears that eadlow has indeed won his second championship and squeaked through with the last semi-final spot, subject to confirmation by the commish.

The only two active players remaining who are still in contention for the semi-finals are Riggodrill and blsmith7. Both of them have secured a spot but we will (unfortunately) need to wait another 10 days until their scores are finalized (unless both teams lose in the semis which seems unlikely). Both teams are 1-1 in the semis so far.
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Mr Baseball World

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Re: Projected Total

PostWed Nov 01, 2017 3:08 pm

Thank you all. I will be doing some review starting tonight.

Riggo is down 3-1 and blsmith is tied 2-2.
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TIMOTHYFOSTER

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Re: Projected Total

PostWed Nov 01, 2017 7:51 pm

Thanks guys for doing the work relative to this and excited to get the post season started, even if that is a few days or few weeks away. Now that we're close to the playoffs, was reading the rules more closely and while obviously too late to make changes, noticed a significant issue with the finals drafting process as it related to a manager's total wins and while probably won't have to worry about that myself, seems like there is huge incentive for the teams to score as many points in the regular season as possible in order to pick potentially first in seven rounds. Seems like a shame that we're not going to be going into the playoffs in a more balance format, since so much of the regular season point scoring is not only out of an individual managers control but also can be affected by which leagues (and the opposition in said league) a manager played in during the regular season. Guess I missed that as thought I had read before where the playoffs would be more of a top 36 meeting on a level playing field and the same with the finals. Unfortunately, not the case at all and worrisome on multiple levels. It would definitely make sense to try to eliminate in the semi-finals the teams that have scored more points in the regular season as to "increase" one's drafting spot and would be unfortunate if a manager who performed well during the regular season is eliminated in the semi-finals because of a rule that is going to push collusion among managers as a near necessity in order to overcome regular season standouts. I think we would all agree that team 12 has little to no chance against a team that is drafting their first 7 guys 11 spots earlier and so I guess the semi-finals end up being more of "the finals" then that last round itself.
Does that make sense? Am I missing something? Sorry, first timer here so hoping someone can shed some light for me (and imagine maybe others) as to why we would allow the regular season to dictate so much of the playoff results as seems like it would be hard for the winner to feel like a winner if he drafts in spot 1. Not only that, would think that someone may be able to win the thing without ever even really competing against the top managers in the game?
Imagine someone can help bring some clarity to this as know it was probably more well-thought on than my response this evening and appreciate the insight. Good luck all going forward- gonna start working on live drafts since -- wait can we work on live drafts that aren't serpentine? How do you guys prepare for that? Anyways, thanks for the help,
confused here as you can tell,
Tim
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stevep107

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Re: Projected Total

PostThu Nov 02, 2017 4:34 am

Hi Tim,

I'm not sure I understand your concern. But if I am interpreting your message correctly, you are assuming that in the finals the top team gets to pick their first 7 players and their ballpark first before anyone else.

This isn't the way it works.

The top team chooses one player or a stadium. Then the second player chooses and so on.

So, yes the top team chooses first but only one player at a time.

Does this help?

Cheers,
Steve
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ScumbyJr

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Re: Projected Total

PostThu Nov 02, 2017 9:23 am

TIMOTHYFOSTER wrote:Thanks guys for doing the work relative to this and excited to get the post season started, even if that is a few days or few weeks away. Now that we're close to the playoffs, was reading the rules more closely and while obviously too late to make changes, noticed a significant issue with the finals drafting process as it related to a manager's total wins and while probably won't have to worry about that myself, seems like there is huge incentive for the teams to score as many points in the regular season as possible in order to pick potentially first in seven rounds. Seems like a shame that we're not going to be going into the playoffs in a more balance format, since so much of the regular season point scoring is not only out of an individual managers control but also can be affected by which leagues (and the opposition in said league) a manager played in during the regular season. Guess I missed that as thought I had read before where the playoffs would be more of a top 36 meeting on a level playing field and the same with the finals. Unfortunately, not the case at all and worrisome on multiple levels. It would definitely make sense to try to eliminate in the semi-finals the teams that have scored more points in the regular season as to "increase" one's drafting spot and would be unfortunate if a manager who performed well during the regular season is eliminated in the semi-finals because of a rule that is going to push collusion among managers as a near necessity in order to overcome regular season standouts. I think we would all agree that team 12 has little to no chance against a team that is drafting their first 7 guys 11 spots earlier and so I guess the semi-finals end up being more of "the finals" then that last round itself.
Does that make sense? Am I missing something? Sorry, first timer here so hoping someone can shed some light for me (and imagine maybe others) as to why we would allow the regular season to dictate so much of the playoff results as seems like it would be hard for the winner to feel like a winner if he drafts in spot 1. Not only that, would think that someone may be able to win the thing without ever even really competing against the top managers in the game?
Imagine someone can help bring some clarity to this as know it was probably more well-thought on than my response this evening and appreciate the insight. Good luck all going forward- gonna start working on live drafts since -- wait can we work on live drafts that aren't serpentine? How do you guys prepare for that? Anyways, thanks for the help,
confused here as you can tell,
Tim


I am going into the semis as #35 if I make the finals I will draft low, but disagree with your statement that "team 12 has little to no chance against a team that is drafting their first 7 guys 11 spots earlier". Many prior PC CHAMPIONS failed to qualify for the Semis (7 or so), This is a very tough set. With the $80M cap there is opportunity for everyone to compete.
The leagues were picked randomly to minimize those managers looking to shop for easy competition. I have no reason to believe there is collusion to knock off the top seeds.
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TIMOTHYFOSTER

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Re: Projected Total

PostThu Nov 02, 2017 7:22 pm

Steve:
Thanks for getting back to me. I understand its one player at a time, but imagine there will still be a relatively large talent gap between the team picking #1 and the team picking at the 12th spot and would also assume that we would all rather be choosing at the #1 spot than the 12th spot. So to Scumby's point, I think it would be common sense for anyone going into the finals to prefer to be drafting versus teams with less points rather than those who have more points. If we all agree on those points, I do think that will shape (don't know how it couldn't) manager decisions in the semi-finals.
For example, a team that is around 12-24 in rankings for the semi-final and has in their league the #2, #6, #8, #11, #15, #18(the example team), #20, #23, #27, #30, #33, #36 seeds. Of course they would prefer to advance along with any of the seeds below them (20, 23, 27, 30, 33, 36 in the example) and would prefer to see the teams seeded higher than them (2, 6, 8, 11, 15) eliminated. Since the semi-finals are going to be played on a much more level playing field, the time for the lower seeded teams to "beat" the higher ranked teams will actually be that semi-finals round. They won't be able to control the other two leagues but if they can advance without any teams seeded higher than them advancing from their semi-final league, they would ensure themselves at least a 9th pick overall.
Hopefully you're still with me and for teams entering it ranked 34-36, won't make much difference so I understand Scumby not viewing the situation in the same light as myself. The team in my example most definitely prefers if higher ranked teams are eliminated and thus, semi-final decisions will most likely be made with that seeding in mind. If all of the teams ranked anywhere from something like 8th all the way to 30th have the same mindset, then the same tactics would most likely be used in all three semi-final leagues. The team in our example can't affect those other two semi-final leagues, but the other "middle of the road" teams will most likely prefer the same situation and so those teams ranked near or at the top will have a relatively large target on their backs and will have that target from the majority of teams they will be facing in their semi-final round.

Where I may be incorrect is in the assumption that there will be a sizeable talent difference between the finals team drafting 1,13,25,37, etc, etc when compared with the team drafting 12, 24, 36, 48, etc, etc. I don't have any experience with live drafting where the teams draft in the same spot each round but from reading the recent thread about the ATG live draft, seems like there is a huge difference and I assumed (and maybe incorrectly) that because there was less talent in our card set than in the ATG card set, would think that the difference would be even greater. If that assumption is correct however, it will be important for the teams ranked approx. 10-30 to try to not only advance to the finals but do so with some of the teams ranked above them not making it so they aren't stuck drafting near the bottom.

So ultimately, my point, and I understand it is somewhat of an unknown for everyone is, knowing what we know and assuming a few things that I think we can safely assume, there will be a lot of teams with a high level of incentive to try to knock off the higher seeds in the semi-final round rather than waiting for the finals. That could be even more pronounced if managers have the mindset that making it to the finals and picking 10-12 would be nice but is most likely not going to allow for my team to be competitive so need to do whatever it takes to make sure that I'm not advancing as the 12th seed.

You can imagine those teams changing pitching strategies, saving certain pitchers to use against the higher ranked teams or even altering their teams after the draft to make sure they match up well against those higher seeded teams. Now imagine 6 teams per each semi-final round doing that and you may be able to see what I was getting at -- that being the #1, #2 or #3 seed may not be advantageous whatsoever going into the playoffs as you may have a huge advantage if you make it to the finals but you're most likely going to have a lot of teams working hard to make sure you don't make it that far.

Even worse, since the semi-finals will be balanced, there is a good chance that a team ranked near the bottom may be able to open up a sizeable lead over other teams and be able to use that lead to "shape" who is going to advance with them to the finals.

Sorry to be so long-winded and imagine confusing but I'm hopeful I've made myself somewhat clear -- that we all will want to draft as close to #1 as possible and therefore although the top teams will have an advantage if they reach the finals, they will have a significant hurdle to overcome in the semi-finals in order to get there and don't imagine that we would want to have rules that encourage either, at least in my opinion.

Again, I just missed this rule and actually thought I had at one point read the exact opposite -- the best 36 teams would make the semi's and the playoff qualifiers from each of those leagues would make the finals. And not complaining or asking for a change for this year but definitely think it is something to think about as seems more fair to play the playoffs by the same rules/format as the regular season and not give one team an advantage over another team or, as I was suggesting, unintentionally put a target on the back's of those teams you were trying to give an advantage to in the first place.

Does that make any sense?
Does anyone know how much of a difference there will be on a team that is drafting 1st each round versus a team that is drafting last each round relative to the card set we are using? I am hopeful its not much and if that's the case, could greatly alleviate teams "ganging up" on the higher seeded managers in the semi-finals round.
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Gilbo

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Re: Projected Total

PostFri Nov 03, 2017 12:39 am

Hi Tim,
I believe I understand much of what you are saying, but probably not everything. There are more variables in these matters than anyone can calculate, much less control. We all want to have high picks as it is more pleasurable to get the players we desire, but I think it is less of an advantage than it sounds. We could explore details such as space between picks: after the first pick everyone has to wait through 11 opponent picks before they choose again. Also those who pick later can learn about those who pick earlier. With players having well calculated salaries and each team w the same salary cap there is a natural leveling effect: taking a high priced talented player in one area, means taking a lesser player in another, or course.

Case in point - My teams have made the semi-finals 2013 - 2016. I have never been a high seed and a couple times made it in as 30+ seeds. No one has ever accused me of being a dominate player, yet 2014 & 2015 I did make the finals. In fact last year at game 144, I had the best record of the 12 teams in the finals. Then I had several injuries the last week and went 4 wins and 14 losses to finish the year in 3rd place in my division (ugh! what an ending!).

Nevertheless, several players in the semi-finals and finals made predictions of how teams would finish in both leagues and I was never picked better than 4th in my division (I almost got there in the finals!) I actually won the Championship in the semi-finals league, but still was somewhere around 6th pick in the last event.

Now maybe you are right in thinking the top seeds have a target on their back. Isn't that how it works in any baseball league? Maybe, someone had the great Idea to only focus on the best teams? But guess what... it didn't win it for them. It only allowed little ol' me to sneak in.... I know this doesn't solve all the dilemmas you mentioned, but it does give hope for every player who is willing to adjust to the draft pick made in front of them. Now if we only have one way to win and someone else takes our prized player...I guess we are out of luck. You are a good manager...for a rookie. Take it easy, breath, think, pray...you will be fine!
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stevep107

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Re: Projected Total

PostFri Nov 03, 2017 4:26 am

Riggodrill's team lost the semi-finals, but blsmith7's team made it to the finals which means that we all need to wait another 8+ days before the semi-finals can start. :cry:
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