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100 Win Curse

PostPosted: Fri Oct 15, 2021 11:45 am
by coachprbb
Through 4 events and 64 leagues that have been completed, there have been 13 100 win teams...of those 13, 5 have won the championship, leaving 8 to lose. At least 1 (maybe 2) lost to another 100 win team.

Re: 100 Win Curse

PostPosted: Sat Oct 16, 2021 12:42 pm
by Hittmens
Does not sound like much of a curse- 5 of 13 is pretty good not great but pretty good

Re: 100 Win Curse

PostPosted: Fri Oct 29, 2021 8:21 am
by coachprbb
In round 5 there were 2 100 win teams and they both won it all. So now the totals are 15 100 win teams and 7 champs. Curse? :shock:

Re: 100 Win Curse

PostPosted: Tue Nov 02, 2021 2:30 pm
by Radagast Brown
I hope this is a joke. You guys are too smart to believe in such nonsense. Besides, look at real life MLB, 100 win teams lose sometimes in the playoffs.

Re: 100 Win Curse

PostPosted: Wed Nov 03, 2021 7:45 am
by coachprbb
I hope you understand that what I am posting in keeping track of the "100 win curse" is proof that there is no 100 win curse. And, just to prove this stuff does happen in real life as well, look at the World Series...the team with the fewest wins in the playoffs won the whole enchilada. Pitching defense and timely hitting win no matter what era you play in.

Re: 100 Win Curse

PostPosted: Wed Nov 17, 2021 11:04 am
by coachprbb
There are currently 7 100 win teams in the playoffs in event 6....that is about 33% of the total 100 win teams in all 6 events...total 22

Re: 100 Win Curse

PostPosted: Wed Nov 17, 2021 1:44 pm
by FrankieT
Of course there is no curse, it just seems to sting in the memory more sharply when it happens, while the "expected" successes get absorbed into the less emotional part of the brain ;). So it feels like a curse to some.

But, there is some plausible statistical basis as to why it may sometimes happen--though I haven't done or claim to know if this has significant correlation. So, the hypothesis is that in many cases with 100+ win teams, at least in 12-team leagues, those teams play their largest fraction of games against their own division.

Now consider:
1. A team that gets to 100 wins is almost required to match up well against its division, but not necessarily as well or completely against every other team outside the division. So maybe you are a .675 club intra division, but play .500 in unfavorable parks.

2. A team that gets to 100 wins is generally likely to be some kind of extreme roster--either pitcher park, hitter park, one-sided, etc. So if in a division with three pitcher park teams, as a pitcher park team, that you killed, and you face an 85 win team in the playoffs who scraped by their division as the only hitters park but is well geared to a hitting park--then maybe your rotation of Santana, Marichal et al get destroyed at Wrigley by that 85 win team. They only need to overperform for one away game in a 7 game series and they can basically even up the odds (in terms of extreme park advantage).

I've been the recipient and the victim of this scenario a few times as many I am sure. So I agree 100% on lack of a curse or any kind of normalization as it's been called--but I do think there is some actual statistically valid reasons that may be contributing factors to this as a phenomenon that is more likely than any hocus pocus.

It may be recalled though, unlike MLB or real life, SOM online has many things that switch random outcomes--Max Rules, home field advantage, pitcher fatigue, on and on. So no comparison to real life at all. That is a non-sequitur.

Re: 100 Win Curse

PostPosted: Fri Nov 26, 2021 10:54 am
by coachprbb
4 of 7 100 win teams won in Event 6....making 11 of 22 won their respective leagues