2018 BS Finals "Discussion" Thread

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tmfw30

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Re: 2018 BS Finals "Discussion" Thread

PostFri Feb 08, 2019 12:57 am

Lab taking Mariano Duncan also broke my heart. Super in love with that card.

But a roster of mine without Rueter basically makes me feel like I'm walking around the streets naked.
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cristano1

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Re: 2018 BS Finals "Discussion" Thread

PostFri Feb 08, 2019 9:00 am

Most of the boys on my team I've never used before: Seymour, Joyce, Ott (I think I've used him in one barn event in the past 4 years), my CA (never used him), my 2B (never used him), my SS (never used him). I will have 1-2 batters on my team that I've previously used.

That said, I am willing to drop up to half my team depending on divisional assignments. I passed on Marichal because I could have only been happy with 5 star pitchers left: P Alexander, T Brown, C Mathewson, E Walsh, and Marichal. I would have dropped Marichal if I ended up in a division with you (Petro), Mesquiton, DJ, Halle (possibly), Monkey (possibly). If I got a bad divisional assignment, I would have dropped Marichal and possibly been left with nothing had Mathewson or Walsh gone.

Also, my final reason was because of playoffs. Marichal would start game 3 or 4 for me, on the road. Putting him and his 4 ballpark homers in a random park is too risky (for my liking) in a 7 game set. I like to take all the chance out of it, so I decided to give a little on the SP value scale to have 4 good value aces who don't give up dingers.

Finally, it felt really really good to draft "Chrissie" Mathewson.
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The Last Druid

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Re: 2018 BS Finals "Discussion" Thread

PostFri Feb 08, 2019 9:10 am

Good draft so far. First, Cristano was herded into his 4 aces strategy (Pineiro, Heredia, Duren going in the early rounds) and now without his ace in the hole, Marichal!! Would have bet the farm that he took Mathewson this round after Marichal went and that his protestations to the contrary, he would have taken Marichal instead of Matty if he could have. Assuming that he uses Mathewson's best card, Dougess taking Marichal cost him 3/4 of a million for a less effective starter given the league composition.

Now I wasn't kidding when I said that I spent the 6 months after last year's finals playing in parks like Fenway 67, 71, Baker 32 etc. at 100M just to combat the 4 ace strategy. Learned a whole lot. The time to implement that is NOW as it looks like two teams are going 4 aces.
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cristano1

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Re: 2018 BS Finals "Discussion" Thread

PostFri Feb 08, 2019 9:13 am

Unless the two teams with 4 aces don't land in your division. Next year we need two rule changes: (1) Straight draft, not serpentine, (2) Divisional Assignments Pre Draft

I like Marichal don't get me wrong. But the last 2 years I played a small ball team with 6 other small ball teams in the league.
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The Last Druid

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Re: 2018 BS Finals "Discussion" Thread

PostFri Feb 08, 2019 9:16 am

But he is maximally effective against lefty teams and small ball and that is at least 3/4 of the teams in this league. And you only have two *9 guys. Gonna have to trot out Hrabosky now and pony up for that too!
Last edited by The Last Druid on Fri Feb 08, 2019 9:26 am, edited 1 time in total.
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cristano1

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Re: 2018 BS Finals "Discussion" Thread

PostFri Feb 08, 2019 9:23 am

Why do you think that? I don't see him as a value against you, Mesquiton, DJ, Halle, Monkey. Also, in this league I have Marichal's ERA at ~20-25 points higher than Mathewson's for a savings of 750k. I save 10 runs a season by drafting Mathewson over Marichal. I don't see it as being anything more than at the margins in either direction. Marichal has a higher downside risk. You just want me to have Marichal so you can land in my division and send out your 7 righty batters and they can hit dingers on him all night long.

Also, my top reliever this year will be priced in the Clear range.
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cristano1

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Re: 2018 BS Finals "Discussion" Thread

PostFri Feb 08, 2019 9:38 am

I mean I've made playoffs in the barn finals how many years running? 6 or 7? Sure, I could get unlucky and miss them this year, but I still build my team for the playoffs. Marichal is going to be subpar against some of the best teams this year.

I would be willing to break it down this simply. Mesquiton's team is a playoff team. Either there's a good chance I have to face Mesquiton in the playoffs, or he lands in my division. If I was given that bit of info in isolation, I would pass on Marichal.

Also, DJ has a playoff team and is going to send out 7 righty batters, small ball or not. You and halle both have nice teams. You'll both be righty batter overweight.

At best, we are debating an EV of 0.1 wins here, between Marichal and Mathewson. Now had you taken Duren with pick 13 and a super reliever in the 3rd round, we are talking ~1.5 wins.

And then there are the wins you lost because you took a 9R with your 1st pick, and this league is a bunch of lefty teams. You probably gave up 3-4 wins by drafting Pineiro (and getting unlucky) and drafting a super reliever (and losing Duren). I made mistakes too. As soon as Kershaw went I should have given up on the 5 Non Star rotation. But then I wasted pick 2 on Hecker and lost Duren right after that.

The best thing about 4 aces are, there are 8 great aces and they are easy to get. You can definitely get a higher EV wins by drafting a Non Star rotation, but they are near impossible to get. I wanted to send out Pedro and Kershaw 1/2/6/7 of the playoffs, ah well, there is always next year.
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jet40

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Re: 2018 BS Finals "Discussion" Thread

PostFri Feb 08, 2019 10:26 am

Seymour should be a great value in Dunn.
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cristano1

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Re: 2018 BS Finals "Discussion" Thread

PostFri Feb 08, 2019 10:43 am

Are you referring to the jet ratings? Are you joe the jet?
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jet40

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Re: 2018 BS Finals "Discussion" Thread

PostFri Feb 08, 2019 10:59 am

cristano1 wrote:Are you referring to the jet ratings? Are you joe the jet?


No. I am not Joe the Jet.
But I do the math on the cards, as I am sure most do.
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