2017 Finals Vote for CAP/DH/Draft Order

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The Last Druid

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Re: 2017 Finals Vote for CAP/DH/Draft Order

PostFri Feb 16, 2018 2:19 pm

Reuter is just an inexpensive toy to use against lefty teams. In this league he might see 5 starts. I rarely use him but he is a useful addition to a 7 man staff for the very occasional spot start against the right team.

We both manage by results. Mine from actual leagues, yours from simulated seasons. If I wanted to lay out the cash to buy all the SOM rosters ever issued, you would have no chance at all against me - ever. So despite being technologically handicapped relative to you, I've still done better than you in head to head competition. That speaks volumes right there Chrissie. :lol:
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cristano1

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Re: 2017 Finals Vote for CAP/DH/Draft Order

PostFri Feb 16, 2018 2:34 pm

I've not spent more than $15 on strat in years. I've not made any purchases aside from 201X season rosters for 14.99 per year so that I can send it to Jet so he can send me ratings so I know who people will be targeting. All my work is in Excel. Based on all the publicly available information on the strat 365 website. My little Excel program can sim 1000 seasons in under 60 seconds.

It is funny you said your top 5 guys for this league were Pedro, Speaker, Lajoie, Wagner, and Cobb. Interestingly enough, those are Jet's top 5 high salary players too in a small park. Also if you look at Jet's top 5 value starting pitchers they are.... Drumroll please..... Pineiro, Heredia, Henry, Donald, and Gabler. Holy smokes. Those are also the small pitchers YOU use the most too. What a coincidence. You are the Mark Suckerberg of Strat-o-matic. He's a billionaire but also an unoriginal copycat. Not that there's anything wrong with that. What drives me insane about Suckerberg is that he's never admitted to being a copycat.

You're more deserving than the other boys here only because you copied a smart man. Not because you are a smart man.
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The Last Druid

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Re: 2017 Finals Vote for CAP/DH/Draft Order

PostFri Feb 16, 2018 2:44 pm

Try applying to the Triple Nine Society, of which I am a card carrying member. Let me know how that goes, if you actually think you are bright. You probably couldn't even get into Mensa.

As far as relying on Jet's ratings their useful feature is the cost /value ratio, which doesn't exist for pitchers! Jet hasn't been able to figure that one out. And Chance is by far the top rated small ball player. Wagner actually sucks at unlimited caps, he is useful at 80M to 100M only because the cheaper SS card is the best small ball value. I was successful at SOM long before I ever heard of Jet's ratings. And as far as Lajoie goes, the one I would use, as stated before on this very thread, is the much less highly rated 8.21 card, because that has worked well for about 100 times for me. I take Jet's ratings as a starting point but actually go by my experience. If you look at Bowa on Jet's ratings, no one would ever use him. Ever.
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cristano1

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Re: 2017 Finals Vote for CAP/DH/Draft Order

PostFri Feb 16, 2018 3:12 pm

All one has to do is fit a simple linear regression on Jet's "overall" column and "salary" column to see the best pitchers by value. Try that 999 Mr. Mensa and let me know how Pineiro, Heredia, Donald, Gabler stack up.

Re: 2m Bowa. The point is here, it is irrelevant because Bowa is 2m. Who cares if he is a high value or just a little better than average player. His tiny price tag means his impact on the overall result is tiny. It is similar to drafting the very best 0.5m player. At the end of the day, minimal impact cause of his price.

Re: Mensa. I wasn't saying that you were smart or not smart. I was simply saying the jury is out because all you've done so far is regurgitate someone else's work. Someone could come along who has never played the game before and copy the best teams ever and will have pretty good results. What does that say about that person other than he is a good copier? Hard to draw any other conclusions. You could be a genius. No way to tell or not from your strat work. Maybe your chess work is a better indicator.
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The Last Druid

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Re: 2017 Finals Vote for CAP/DH/Draft Order

PostFri Feb 16, 2018 3:56 pm

I'm barely literate with Excel. Only thing I've ever had to use it for is Jet's ratings. Did a lot of work with linear regression in graduate school, every study I published compared regression results with MANOVA as a methodological given, because life is a continuous and not discrete variable. But that was all done with SPSS. No idea that excel can perform regression analysis. But I developed my own formula for rating pitchers Gabler, Hands, Bordi ...depends on the park. The other guys we mention are just mispriced, just like Hendrix used to be and Donald still is.

BTW, no one in the Triple 9 Society would ever stoop to applying for Mensa membership. They take people in the top 2%, Triple 9 is restricted to the top tenth of one percent.
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cristano1

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Re: 2017 Finals Vote for CAP/DH/Draft Order

PostFri Feb 16, 2018 4:09 pm

But that is the beauty of the Jet ratings. One doesn't have to be literate in Excel or anything else. It is just pick the highest rating / cost and you get Speaker, Cobb, Wagner(ss), Lajoie, and Pedro, who is number 1 for pitchers. I am not accusing you of doing regressions or difficult Excel formulas. The opposite - I am saying you just close eyes and copy Jet.
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The Last Druid

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Re: 2017 Finals Vote for CAP/DH/Draft Order

PostFri Feb 16, 2018 5:16 pm

Can't get in DD.

My picks will be Wheeler and the cheapest Nolan Ryan card.
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The Last Druid

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Re: 2017 Finals Vote for CAP/DH/Draft Order

PostFri Feb 16, 2018 6:15 pm

Finally got in and drafted Ryan. However, DD didn't recognize Dan Wheeler. I am copying the email I sent to Mighty Moose moments ago so you all know why the draft is stalled:

I couldn't access diamond dope to enter my two planned picks this afternoon. Wheeler and Nolan Ryan. Finally got it to pick Ryan. Then I find the site doesn't recognize Wheeler, despite Rosie claiming to have entered all the new cards in a post on Tuesday night. I will not be disadvantaged because of Rosie's negligence. So you can rule whatever you want, i.e. manually enter the one card Rosie blew off and enter the pick for me, or, allow me the pick as is in which case I will skip my DD pick for the current round with the understanding that Wheeler ls my property in the autodraft. Or you can draw a line in the sand and negate the Wheeler pick, however I did post my issues with DD delaying my pick on the message board and my intent to draft Wheeler and Ryan before I knew there would be an issue with Wheeler. Should that be the case, feel replace to replace me in the remainder of the draft and the finals. I will also post this on the board so people know why the draft is being delayed and / or why I am being replaced.
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mighty moose

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Re: 2017 Finals Vote for CAP/DH/Draft Order

PostFri Feb 16, 2018 6:24 pm

I've already ruled on what happens if a player isn't on the dd site. If you want to quit and not play your finals team over a $1.87 player, that's completely up to you. The fact that you POSTED that wanted him ruined your hand at placing him #1 on your autodraft. We can either keep skipping your turn or I will start to figure out who will be most deserving to take over your team as drafted so far. Totally up to you how you want to proceed.
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BDWard

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Re: 2017 Finals Vote for CAP/DH/Draft Order

PostFri Feb 16, 2018 6:27 pm

mighty moose wrote:I repeat. No concessions will be made if the card isn't there. Draft with who is on the Dope site. I don't want to add any unnecessary complications to drafting. If you have someone in mind that you might want, PM Rosie2167 and ask him if that player is added. - DONE.

FOOTNOTE: I just got an e-mail from Rosie. He stated that all new cards will be added by Sunday night, AND he appreciates everyone's patience while he works hard to get this done. BUT, the first paragraph will STILL apply if the card you want isn't there.


Rosie2167 wrote:All new cards except for the TB Rays team add Are now in the DD live draft.


mighty moose wrote:I've already ruled on what happens if a player isn't on the dd site. If you want to quit and not play your finals team over a $1.87 player, that's completely up to you. The fact that you POSTED that wanted him ruined your hand at placing him #1 on your autodraft. We can either keep skipping your turn or I will start to figure out who will be most deserving to take over your team as drafted so far. Totally up to you how you want to proceed.


Since Wheeler is a new TB Rays card and hasn't been added to the DD draft list, based on the above quotes, it looks like that pick will have to wait until the autodraft.

Bruce, I think your point has been made. While I agree that it would have been better to be able to post a pick not listed in DD in this forum, a practice followed in many leagues, Rick ruled against that when you asked him to allow such. By your own account, you are having a good draft and you had a great BSers season. This is a great opportunity for you to get the recognition you would deserve as the first BSers repeat winner. Don't throw it all away over a replaceable 13th round draft pick that you may very well may get in the autodraft anyway. Just take the next man up on your draft list so that the draft can continue.
Last edited by BDWard on Fri Feb 16, 2018 6:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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