Strat-O-Matic Baseball 365

https://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1747994

Every starter in my lineup has attempted to steal a base an average of once every 4 times they reach base (somewhere between once every 3 to once every 7 times as a range excluding catchers), but Pat Listach (with the same team and individual settings as everyone else) has only attempted to steal 4 times despite reaching base 63 time so basically once every 16 times he reaches base.

Any thoughts as to why?

Yes, he is a marginally worse stealer than everyone else on the squad, but that still seems to be a huge disparity.

What are your settings?

It does seem like a wide disparity but my initial instinct is that it could just be bad luck. My understanding is the first thing HAL determines is whether or not he gets a good lead and then determines whether or not to steal. Factors also include hold and catcher arm rating. Maybe just not getting good leads, maybe being held, etc-- so he doesn't make the attempt.

Yeah could be many things--besides what goffchile just said which are all valid, even with the same settings, would need to compare the actual situations to draw a comparison--# outs, men on, whether you are ahead/behind, hit/run and bunt actions on those up when he is on. He is also platooning against lefties which typically have a better hold.

All I noted as a clue is he also only had 10 opportunities to take an extra base which is low compared to others. So my guess he is typically on in situations where a steal was not warranted (ie, someone in front of him, a hitter who has hit and run on at the plate, blowout, etc.)

If it is important to you to find out, you have the data--you need to look in the individual PbP--I don't see another definitive way to get closer to understanding why.

It may look like a suitable way to compare the situations by times on base vs attempts, but it isn't going to tell you anything just by looking at how many times on base vs attempts because that isn't accounting for the things the AI considers before deciding to steal, so it is moot. Unfortunately, we don't get the pre-action rolls (attempt to take a lead, HnR etc) which would really help.

Thinking out loud, but also may want to consider what are your HnR and bunt settings for team and individuals--because those actions are independently determined on a separate lookup.

When seeking to understand what is happening, no better way to tease understanding than by making controlled changes to see what happens.

Team is set to Very Aggressive Bunting & Normal Hite & Run.

Hitters with an A bunt or B H/R are checked to do it more with the exception of Sisler & Carey, my most expensive hitters.
Anyone B or worse bunt & C or worse H/R are checked to NOT do it.

Listach is batting cleanup BTW.

Sweet Swinging 26 wrote:


Listach is batting cleanup BTW.

And there you have it.

I give up, how is batting cleanup affecting him stealing once he is on base.

Steve can address his own comment but here are a few thoughts.

1- I am not saying there is something magic about where the guy hits regarding stolen bases, sacrifices, and HnR--what matters is the following, as I already said--when Listach is on:
a. what is the score
b. what inning
c. What bases are occupied
d. who is being held if other runners, ie is there an asterisk on the rating
e. is the infield in
f. who is up
g. what are the defending team's hold/catcher numbers
h. how many outs
i. Your team settings

So I'll say again--you won't figure it out until you look at the PbP. If you don't want to go back to do that, then just start from today. There is no magic formula to this. It depends on the situation and is not a simple steal or don't steal.

Your team settings are also only tweaking the boundaries of choices if you read their descriptions on the team strategy page.

So, now let's figure something else out: why would you have guys like Listach, Lofton, Wilson, (edited--missed not including Carey) sac bunting and/or HnR aggressively? That takes a steal off the table potentially as well BTW.

For instance, Lofton already has a bunch of ways to move a runner on his card--this is why he is good for smallball--gbC, not many gbA, etc. And the others the same way--some get deep flies, some have lots of gbB.

But to take a 40+ hit card off the table and go to a generic lookup chart for sac bunts and HnR makes no sense to me numerically. If you haven't looked at the HnR for instance you may want to. Not to mention--you may have a lot of steal attempts when Listach is up that are potentially botched HnRs depending who is batting where/when. Maybe there aren't as many HnRs being attempted when Listach is on so he is getting less attempts. Dunno. Need the PbP.
Now there is an advantage if you are facing a massively dominant pitcher because you remove that pitcher's card from the mix so for a poor hitter it could make sense. (Edited--missed note on Carey)

I only see a couple managers I recognize in that group so not sure of the knowledge of competition but IMO your team is not optimized with those settings and you are getting away with it in that league IMO (can't always go by win % with folks that mostly stay in the same circle of players, don't play the tour etc.) So I wouldn't change what is working for you but maybe do some small test case changes and see what happens. And GL!

Sweet Swinging 26 wrote:I give up, how is batting cleanup affecting him stealing once he is on base.

What I meant was that the cleanup hitter will quite often have runners in front of him, so less chances to steal

true quarkmeister.

And that can be data-mined if the gentleman wishes.

I just don't know of any way except how to do it manually