Pickoffs

How do they happen?
How is it possible in this situation?
Olerud on 1st.
Ruth at bat.
Olerud set to don't steal.
Ruth set to don't hit and run.
Team hit and run set at extra conservative.
Olerud gets picked off.

Maybe send a link to the PbP?

Don't recall all the "Rare Plays" there are, but I think there are a few with runners. But would like to see the basic dice roll.
Unfortunately, all the roll/chart lookups are not shown, so may never know why.
That would be a nice feature to have.

Well, in real baseball getting picked off doesn't necessarily mean you were trying to steal.

I suppose a bug could happen whereby the "don't steal" checkbox is evaluated after, not before, the determination of how good a lead the baserunner has (example:*4-6/10 (15-8)). But, when you think about it, is that really a bug?

Some would say it's not a bug and more like a "feature." The baserunner has no intent to steal no matter how wide of a lead he has, but still strayed too far off the bag and got picked off.

Well, I get all that, but it seems to happen way to often. And with 2 outs in the 8th inning of a 1 run game, you would think Mr. Olerud would make sure Ruth got to swing the bat.

Yes, it does happen way too often. Big fail for Strat.

If you examine Olerud's 1993 card, for example, and read Wikipedia for explanation of how a runner can get picked off it is a real head-scratcher ( Olerud 1993: ( 7/- (3-1)) because the potential for a player who is terrible at steals getting picked off is way greater than the potential for a good base stealer getting picked off. The supplementary dice roll ( 3-20, dive back to base, 1, pickoff possible) triggers another dice roll that is then compared to the second number within the '()' (I think).

So, to summarize, there would seem to be two major design flaws that led to Olerud getting picked off.

1) HAL chooses to evaluate the stealing rating prior to evaluating whether the "don't steal" checkbox is selected. That's a head-scratcher to most of us, but, maybe, not so strange if you want to believe runners can still get picked off who have no intent to steal once presented with the decision variables.
2) Poor base stealers are more at risk than good base stealers at getting picked off. That's a head-scratcher, for sure.

It does feel like there are too many pick-offs. But I dont know if that impression is correct or not. It also seems like a lot more runners get thrown out trying to advance than are reflected in the stats Strat keeps.