What is the record for dice roll difference

I have a team that is negative 302 rolls after 78 games. Pitching staff is minus 165 and my hitters are minus 137
It is not because my pitchers are fatigued either, my staff ERA is 3.87

According to the binomial distribution probability calculator. your pitching and hitting imbalance probability is way less than .01 percent. Assuming the number of trials is about 1300 for hitting/1300 for pitching, that really is a severe imbalance.

But, if 2000 SOM managers do their analysis and only one reports such an imbalance over the next 30 days, I'd say there's nothing fishy going on or surprising about your outcome
.

Maybe, someday, they'll have a monthly challenge for binomial distribution probability fails and we'll be able to earn a credit if we win.

https://www.stattrek.com/online-calcula ... omial.aspx

Post a link to the team.

In every single case I have examined over the years, it was a case of pitcher fatigue for the pitcher side.
That is, remember that rolls progressively get reversed to hitter's cards as fatigue builds toward F0.

Would have to look at individual results, but for the pitchers--I guarantee that is the case.

Once again, another drawback of forcing bad decisions on HAL ahead of time through avoidance of the bullpen logic by using static decisions before a game is played.

Post a link to the team.

In every single case I have examined over the years, it was a case of pitcher fatigue for the pitcher side.
That is, remember that rolls progressively get reversed to hitter's cards as fatigue builds toward F0.

Would have to look at individual results, but for the pitchers--I guarantee that is the case.

Once again, another drawback of forcing bad decisions on HAL ahead of time through avoidance of the bullpen logic by using static decisions before a game is played.

Good points about pitcher fatigue causing imbalance; just a teeny-tiny bit of pitcher fatigue can have a dramatic effect on the binomial distribution calculation...Of course, if his hitters are minus 137 after oh, say 1300 rolls, that requires another explanation, the most likely one being that when something happens to only 1 of 2000 managers after about 1300 rolls and the binomial distribution probability of that event is about .0005, then, that pretty much is an expected outcome.

I'd love to have some kind of usable explanation for pitcher fatigue than the equivalent of "guys get tired and shit starts to happen." One of the worst instances of being in the dark here.

And if this is the case - i.e., that dice rolls start to go to the hitters when pitchers start to fatigue - when? F3? F2? and what happens then? - how come this never seemed to come into play for super relievers? Not saying it does now by saying that, either.

I'd love to have some kind of usable explanation for pitcher fatigue than the equivalent of "guys get tired and shit starts to happen." One of the worst instances of being in the dark here.

And if this is the case - i.e., that dice rolls start to go to the hitters when pitchers start to fatigue - when? F3? F2? and what happens then? - how come this never seemed to come into play for super relievers? Not saying it does now by saying that, either.

Paul8210--exactly. No explanation for the hitter side except to unsatisfiably say it is in the tail of the expected distribution.

Ploughboy, nothing secret about what I said, with one exception. The usable explanation is you would have to read the SOMWiki on bullpen logic v2+. It is worth a read and describes it to the extent I have referenced.

Now for the exception (and this part is important--unlike when we get much less important features like multiple lineups against pitcher balance ratings, and other dalliances):

The problem is it does not say what the function is between F9 and F0, but then again that is consistent with the PCF engagement on the card as well. For instance, as it explains in the wiki, a pitcher does not go from fully rested to fully fatigued from one pitch to the next. That is, all the pitcher cards do not instantly engage all the PCF @symbols that are there. It is gradual. In the same way, rolls can be reversed--but it is not the same as F0, it is gradual. This makes sense. What doesn't make sense is we don't know what function is applied to PCF to engage these breakdowns of pitcher card @readings and reversals?

Is it linear? Expoential?

A salient point is if you try to get 300 innings out of an R3 who pitched 120, it used to be difficult to do successfully. But it was possible to be successful.
Now, it appears, at least initially, to not be viable. Whether the economics still work remains to be seen. What I mean by that is, a fatigued Tom Gordon may still be better than some cheapie starter that folks use when loading on offense. But has the pricing made that option not viable economically? Not sure but seems so. And further--the newest BP logic may not allow you to pitch Tom Gordon after he threw 150 pitches the previous two days. That isn't a bad thing IMO.

I'd love to have some kind of usable explanation for pitcher fatigue than the equivalent of "guys get tired and shit starts to happen." One of the worst instances of being in the dark here.

And if this is the case - i.e., that dice rolls start to go to the hitters when pitchers start to fatigue - when? F3? F2? and what happens then?

I love that we're all not sure of the details of pitchers fatigue. In real baseball the manager is never totally sure if the pitcher is gassed, slightly gassed, or ?, so it makes perfect sense that we are all confounded by the lack of transparency. Strat should never reveal the specifics of how this feature affects one's team and we should all be scratching our heads because that's real baseball!

I'd love to have some kind of usable explanation for pitcher fatigue than the equivalent of "guys get tired and shit starts to happen." One of the worst instances of being in the dark here.

And if this is the case - i.e., that dice rolls start to go to the hitters when pitchers start to fatigue - when? F3? F2? and what happens then?

I love that we're all not sure of the details of pitchers fatigue. In real baseball the manager is never totally sure if the pitcher is gassed, slightly gassed, or ?, so it makes perfect sense that we are all confounded by the lack of transparency. Strat should never reveal the specifics of how this feature affects one's team and we should all be scratching our heads because that's real baseball!

Truth! (I think... )

I'd love to have some kind of usable explanation for pitcher fatigue than the equivalent of "guys get tired and shit starts to happen." One of the worst instances of being in the dark here.

And if this is the case - i.e., that dice rolls start to go to the hitters when pitchers start to fatigue - when? F3? F2? and what happens then?

I love that we're all not sure of the details of pitchers fatigue. In real baseball the manager is never totally sure if the pitcher is gassed, slightly gassed, or ?, so it makes perfect sense that we are all confounded by the lack of transparency. Strat should never reveal the specifics of how this feature affects one's team and we should all be scratching our heads because that's real baseball!

Yet is ok to know RHH Andre Dawson (5R) should be pinch hit for by LHH Bake McBride (5L) when a lefty rp comes in?

Can't argue with that, Nev.
Though some of the more geeky saber-meister types like Girardi et al did some weird stuff like that as managers occasionally.
But I agree with you.

Really the bottom line for me at least is the bullpen logic works pretty darn well when it isn't handcuffed. And I am not sure what I would do with the additional knowledge re: PCF engagement. Though I'd still like to know more, just as a geeky thing. Not a fan of black boxes, but I am the wrong person to advocate since I have very little issue with BP management by HAL.