thoughts on Pitchers with

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egvrich

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Re: thoughts on Pitchers with

PostFri May 29, 2020 10:19 am

tmfw30 wrote: Now, if you have a particularly speedy division, or if egvrich is in your league and has a team packed with AA guys, it's worth giving slightly more weight to hold rating as a variable.


:lol: :roll: :D

Let's not have any more talk about all this.
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nomadbrad@sbcglobal.net

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Re: thoughts on Pitchers with

PostFri May 29, 2020 3:13 pm

childsmwc wrote:This is just a rough estimate but I would say there is probably about a $500k spread between the best hold ratings and the worst hold ratings, for top end starters. So while hold rating is factored in I wouldn't say it makes up a significant component of the pricing. You can decide from there if either end of that spectrum is over/under priced.


Well stated...and yes the real question is...is the spectrum over/under priced?

The answer depends on:
1 - Your stadium
2 - your catcher
3 - Your CAP
4 - base stealing ability of the other teams in your division and their stadiums.

Sometimes it's a bargain and the next league not so much.
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nomadbrad@sbcglobal.net

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Re: thoughts on Pitchers with

PostFri May 29, 2020 3:16 pm

tmfw30 wrote:I generally see a good hold rating as a luxury and nothing more.

It depends on your opponents - basestealing is often not much of a factor in ATG, and it generally takes a pretty skilled manager to build a winning team based on stealing a lot of bases. Now, if you have a particularly speedy division, or if egvrich is in your league and has a team packed with AA guys, it's worth giving slightly more weight to hold rating as a variable.

if your league is dominated by big hitters then hold rating is virtually irrelevant.

-matt


Also, well stated.
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scorehouse

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Re: thoughts on Pitchers with

PostFri May 29, 2020 4:03 pm

i musta not been very clear so let's try this. take Syndergaard, he's priced at 4.61$ , so we know his card is discounted because he's not an *SP, so that's a given. however, he's a whopping +9 hold rating. if he rated +1 to a -1 instead, r we now looking at a 4.8 card, 5.00, or 5.3+? what i'm attempting to ascertain, no pun intended, is a ballpark figure/% on how much the very high hold rating discounts the otherwise Strat price of the card? and what is the +Hold # threshold for a dramatic card pricing discount? is it +3, or anything over? i mean a +9 turns Cecil Fielder into a base stealing machine :D
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nomadbrad@sbcglobal.net

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Re: thoughts on Pitchers with

PostFri May 29, 2020 6:28 pm

YES the hold is figured into the price of EVERY pitcher card.

How much? nobody knows, since SOM isn't transparent....however, one of the previous guys gave a + .50 cent for a -9 and minus .50cent for a +9 holdfactor and this sounds about right.

HOWEVER, whether you should or should not consider that price premium or discount should be weighed AFTER the draft once you see the teams in your division. to determine if the the discount or premium is worth while. It will vary league to league.
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nomadbrad@sbcglobal.net

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Re: thoughts on Pitchers with

PostFri May 29, 2020 6:33 pm

scorehouse wrote:i musta not been very clear so let's try this. i mean a +9 turns Cecil Fielder into a base stealing machine :D


Remember the COMBINATION of pitcher PLUS catcher can NEVER be more than +6 or less than -6.

So you MUST figure your catcher's hold into it also.

If you have Fielder as always stealing and you have a +6 pitcher with a zero hold catcher, then Fielder would have a stealing success rate of around 65%, however his attempts would still be low since he would rarely get a good jump even under favorable conditions where HAL would let him attempt the steal.

It's typically NOT a good idea to have a pitcher/catcher combo greater than +3 ....although I'm sure some owners can show me some counter examples to the contrary.
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scorehouse

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Re: thoughts on Pitchers with

PostFri May 29, 2020 6:55 pm

good info Nomad thanks
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childsmwc

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Re: thoughts on Pitchers with

PostFri May 29, 2020 7:40 pm

Scorehouse,

I believe there is probably about a $250K discount on a +9 hold and approximately a $250k premium on a -9 hold (this is a somewhat sliding scale depending on the price of pitcher we are talking about). A lot of the rationale not to price more into the hold rating has already been discussed above. Also if you start with the premise that a 70% success ratio is required just to break even from a runs created stand point, you have to allow a lot of extra stolen bases to really cost your team runs. On top of that what a bad hold rating tends to do in the online game is expand the range of base runners that Hal with send more so that increase the overall success factor (although this will go up a few % points). And if that 1-11 in the line up with a CS on a 9,10 just got bumped to a 1-14 because of your +arm Hal is going to send him even though when you factor in the CS ratings it doesn't improve your over all team runs. (another reason to check do not steal on your batters that you don't want running).

The SB logic and hold logic are things that could still be improved in the online game, but because you can't maximize these ratings it limits the value of hold.
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scorehouse

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Re: thoughts on Pitchers with

PostFri May 29, 2020 9:00 pm

thats good observation
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