ATG9 Salaries - Third basemen

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chaberlal

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Re: ATG9 Salaries - Third basemen

PostSun Dec 29, 2019 11:03 am

IF GEORGE KELL AT 5.90M$ HAD A REVERSE CARD MEANING HIS LEFTY BEING RIGHTY HE WOULD BE THE BEST 3B VALUE DESPITE HIS POOR SPEED
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chaberlal

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Re: ATG9 Salaries - Third basemen

PostSun Dec 29, 2019 11:05 am

WHEN YOU REALIZE THAT SP ARE ALMOST 3/1 IN LEAGUES
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STEVE F

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Re: ATG9 Salaries - Third basemen

PostSun Dec 29, 2019 1:02 pm

Please don't shout this early in the morning
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tersignf

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Re: ATG9 Salaries - Third basemen

PostSun Dec 29, 2019 1:06 pm

STEVE F wrote:Please don't shout this early in the morning

HA
ha
I am not sure what the SP 3/1 thing means, but I was afraid to ask and get shouted at :)
Maybe R:L ratio of starting pitchers on average? And a hypothetical wish for George Kell's card to have an alternate reality?
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chaberlal

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Re: ATG9 Salaries - Third basemen

PostSun Dec 29, 2019 5:44 pm

I meant 3/1 rightie SP vs lefties
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tersignf

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Re: ATG9 Salaries - Third basemen

PostSun Dec 29, 2019 6:04 pm

Gotcha ;)
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RiggoDrill

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Re: ATG9 Salaries - Third basemen

PostMon Dec 30, 2019 12:21 am

joethejet wrote:I think it's a little curious that Riggo doesn't include McGraw, but the description of McGraw is pretty close to what Joyce is (high ob, bad D, no power. Granted Joyce has some v RHP)

I didn't include the McGraw cards because they're such extreme outliers - they basically break my model. Both cards rate as poor values, however, I'm not sure I believe those ratings because such exceptionally high pure OBP has value at the top of the lineup. I actually drafted a 150M cap team specifically to test the '99 McGraw card in a high-powered lineup.

https://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1532179

McGraw is slugging a pathetic .261, but he's got a .458 OBP and the team is winning.

I don't see the comparison with Joyce. Both of the Joyce cards have ballpark homers and extra base hits. I mean, the McGraw cards are truly EXTREME OUTLIERS! :shock:
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joethejet

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Re: ATG9 Salaries - Third basemen

PostMon Dec 30, 2019 4:01 am

RiggoDrill wrote:
joethejet wrote:I think it's a little curious that Riggo doesn't include McGraw, but the description of McGraw is pretty close to what Joyce is (high ob, bad D, no power. Granted Joyce has some v RHP)

I didn't include the McGraw cards because they're such extreme outliers - they basically break my model. Both cards rate as poor values, however, I'm not sure I believe those ratings because such exceptionally high pure OBP has value at the top of the lineup. I actually drafted a 150M cap team specifically to test the '99 McGraw card in a high-powered lineup.

https://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1532179

McGraw is slugging a pathetic .261, but he's got a .458 OBP and the team is winning.

I don't see the comparison with Joyce. Both of the Joyce cards have ballpark homers and extra base hits. I mean, the McGraw cards are truly EXTREME OUTLIERS! :shock:


Ok, true, but Joyce is a High OB, low D player without a lot of power so... Yeah, he's a N power v RHP, but not v LHP. And McGraw is better on D. (and more money) Still, a .465 OB is nothing to sneeze at! And, he should steal a few bases.
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egvrich

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Re: ATG9 Salaries - Third basemen

PostMon Dec 30, 2019 8:34 am

Riggo,

Please do me a favor and keep telling everyone how crappy that McGraw card is so I can keep getting seasons like this out of him ...

https://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/team/1521028

Rich
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rburgh

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Re: ATG9 Salaries - Third basemen

PostWed Jan 01, 2020 12:41 am

I have posted this a dozen times or more, but I will post it again.

A. It is basically impossible to have a single pricing model that spans from uncapped live draft leagues to $60 mil AD leagues. Some cards have very different values simply because of the different league format. Here are some examples:

Chipper Jones 2007 is worth way more in an uncapped league than in an $80 mil league. Why? Because in an uncapped league you can afford Arenado or Glaus or any of a half-dozen other guys to platoon with him. At $80 mil, you'd have to spend $4 mil or so to get a platoon partner for him that was enough better than he is against lefties to make the platoon worthwhile.

Mike Caldwell is a prized SP in uncapped leagues; he is used rarely at $80 mil caps if at all.

B. I strongly believe that the top 15-20 hitters at each position should be priced in their average draft order in $225 MM plus live drafts. This would make Bonds/Ruth the two most expensive cards (they are), Hornsby/Gibson/Mantle in the next tier, etc. Among other reasons, it would lessen the penalty for disconnecting in the middle of a live draft. But many of these players are NOT drafted in the order one would rank them in a uniform pricing model. Some examples:

Arky Vaughan is often taken in the first 20 picks in a live draft. This is a travesty in a uniform pricing model world. But when he's the only significant LH hitting SS, and you want to play in League 34 or the like, he's insanely valuable. Similar things happen with the good LH catchers (Mauer, Dickey) and LH platoon-needy 2B (Morgan, Cano). And, for the Minute Maid crowd, McGwire, Beltre, A-Rod, and Willie Wells are in the "must have" category.

Similarly, after the great balanced RH starters are gone in a live draft, the rest of the draft board is somewhat random, based on what park the owner is envisioning rather than any particular merit of the card.

C. Hitters' relative prices vary greatly from League 34 to Minute Maid to Polo 41 to Fprbes 57 to Petco to Wrigley 78 to Hilltop to Candlestick 61 to Vet 75. Every hitter (other than the uncapped LD guys) should be priced so that he is a value only in his 2 or 3 best ballparks. And when the 2B and 3B hitter pools, which are heavily right-handed at the top, get run through a uniform pricing model blender, those 3L and 4L guys look awfully overpriced when you assume 25% LHP. But they look pretty damned good when you assume 40% LHP. As freeman above posted, there is no such thing as a static pricing model. But you price Rolen and Clift and Schmidt and Arenado (and similar guys at other positions) to be fairly priced against 75% RHP, you make it strategically silly to use a LHP.

D. Pitchers, especially relief pitchers, are even tougher to price uniformly. Dale Murray is a monster at $80 million or $100 million because you can crank 300+ innings out of him after a little practice. In an uncapped live draft league, not so much. Why? Because there's no way you can get 300+ innings out of him there. Heck, I rarely see Maddux throw more than 270 in high caps, but I've seen him throw 360 at $100 mil.

And what baseline do you use for SP? At $60 million, your average #1 SP is probably going to be $4-4.5 million (with a huge variance). Ideally, you want to have a severe performance penalty for a $2 million guy and you'd want to make small performance increments on the high end fairly expensive. But then you move to $80 mil where the average SP is probably more like $5.5-6 million, and those $4 million guys look awfully cheap if you priced them to discourage their use at $60 mil. And so on, up through $200 mil and $140 mil to the high caps.

E. Small variations in basic assumptions about things like % LHP innings, average ballpark factors, etc. can greatly skew any uniform pricing model. Back when I cared about such things, I went to the trouble to compile ballpark usage and L/R innings totals for a whole bunch of leagues at various caps. At low caps, small-ball parks predominate and LH starters are common, while at $140 mil bomber parks and RH starter are much more common. So if you assume an "average" ballpark and pitching mix for an $80 mil cap, your pricing model has gone totally out the window by the time you get to a $140 mil league. Then you get told by everyone who exclusively plays those caps what a blithering idiot you are.

F. Multiple position guys are a major problem. Where do you put Dihigo in your universe? Is Jimmy Foxx worth playing at 3B? Is Yaz a 1B or LF? Is Trout a LF or a CF? All of these questions have a major impact on your pricing model. And don't tell me that you can make a model where these hitters come out with the same price at multiple positions; it's just not possible.

I could go on and on, but these issues alone are enough to drive one to drink.
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