ATG9 Salaries - Third basemen

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RiggoDrill

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ATG9 Salaries - Third basemen

PostWed Dec 04, 2019 8:04 pm

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Pricing Mistakes – Third basemen
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As a group, third basemen are the most over-priced cards in the set. I'm guessing whoever created these salaries had a very different rating system for defense at 3B or set an unusually high replacement value for the position. In any case, they're all too expensive. Generally, I pick my third baseman from a very small subset with minimal spend (e.g., platoon of Mike Lansing / Alvin Dark).

I think catchers are also over-priced although catcher salaries are less consistent and valuation of catchers is a trickier subject. On the flip side, second basemen are the most under-priced group of players.

NOTE: the John McGraw cards are not included in this list. They show up as over-priced, but are tricky for valuation due to combination of super-high OBP / no power / bad defense.

11.07 -- '80 George Brett, 3B (10.93) +14
9.64 -- '81 Mike Schmidt, 3B (9.75) -11
8.92 -- '07 Alex Rodriguez, 3B (9.53) -61
8.81 -- '04 Scott Rolen, 3B (9.56) -75
8.73 -- '87 Wade Boggs, 3B (9.60) -87
8.67 -- '85 George Brett, 3B (9.37) -70
8.47 -- '99 Chipper Jones, 3B (9.71) -124
8.30 -- '38 Harlond Clift, 3B (9.07) -77
8.15 -- '11 Jose Bautista, 3B (9.05) -90
8.10 -- '96 Ken Caminiti, 3B (9.48) -138
7.80 -- '13 Miguel Cabrera, 3B (9.70) -190
7.73 -- '80 Mike Schmidt, 3B (9.27) -154
7.65 -- '53 Al Rosen, 3B (9.06) -141
7.64 -- '66 Dick Allen, 3B (7.88) -24
7.52 -- '77 Mike Schmidt, 3B (8.52) -100
7.46 -- '04 Adrian Beltre, 3B (8.50) -104
7.18 -- '59 Eddie Mathews, 3B (9.14) -196
7.14 -- '07 David Wright, 3B (7.96) -82
7.11 -- '64 Ron Santo, 3B (7.80) -69
7.00 -- '53 Eddie Mathews, 3B (8.00) -100
6.87 -- '71 Joe Torre, 3B (7.70) -83
6.74 -- '15 Josh Donaldson, 3B (7.38) -64
6.59 -- '64 Brooks Robinson, 3B (7.09) -50
6.52 -- '30 Freddie Lindstrom, 3B (7.05) -53
6.50 -- '96 Jim Thome, 3B (7.91) -141

6.46 -- '86 Wade Boggs, 3B (7.32) -86
6.14 -- '12 Miguel Cabrera, 3B (7.05) -91
6.05 -- '99 Fernando Tatis, 3B (6.52) -47
6.01 -- '08 Chipper Jones, 3B (7.40) -139
6.09 -- '87 Paul Molitor, 3B (6.22) -13
5.97 -- '57 Eddie Mathews, 3B (6.97) -100
5.92 -- '13 Frank Baker, 3B (6.87) -95
5.85 -- '50 George Kell, 3B (5.90) -5
5.84 -- '00 Troy Glaus, 3B (7.38) -154
5.83 -- '04 Melvin Mora, 3B (6.48) -65
5.81 -- '09 Evan Longoria, 3B (6.69) -88
5.71 -- '06 Miguel Cabrera, 3B (6.97) -126
5.70 -- '72 Richie Hebner, 3B (6.32) -62
5.69 -- '06 Harry Steinfeldt, 3B (6.16) -47
5.64 -- '89 Howard Johnson, 3B (7.03) -139
5.63 -- '79 Larry Parish, 3B (6.03) -40
5.60 -- '41 Cecil Travis, 3B (6.67) -107
5.59 -- '99 Robin Ventura, 3B (6.55) -96
5.55 -- '39 Red Rolfe, 3B (6.64) -109
5.54 -- '67 Ron Santo, 3B (6.81) -127
5.49 -- '92 Edgar Martinez, 3B (5.80) -31
5.48 -- '94 Bill Joyce, 3B (5.36) +12
5.32 -- '94 Matt Williams, 3B (6.37) -105
5.31 -- '28 Freddie Lindstrom, 3B (6.46) -115
5.30 -- '79 George Brett, 3B (6.25) -95
5.27 -- '03 Bill Mueller, 3B (5.70) -43
5.25 -- '01 Phil Nevin, 3B (6.97) -172
5.21 -- '82 George Brett, 3B (6.15) -94
5.15 -- '47 Bob Elliott, 3B (6.23) -108
5.13 -- '99 Matt Williams, 3B (6.04) -91
5.13 -- '96 Bill Joyce, 3B (5.10) +3
5.06 -- '11 Frank Baker, 3B (6.08) -102
5.06 -- '76 Pete Rose, 3B (6.09) -103
5.05 -- '76 Bill Madlock, 3B (5.56) -51

4.92 -- '77 Toby Harrah, 3B (5.92) -100
4.92 -- '53 George Kell, 3B (5.45) -53
4.91 -- NeL Ray Dandridge, 3B (5.40) -49
4.90 -- '52 Al Rosen, 3B (6.12) -122
4.90 -- '17 Heinie Groh, 3B (4.96) -6
4.90 -- '46 Whitey Kurowski, 3B (4.74) +16
4.90 -- '29 Pie Traynor, 3B (5.78) -88
4.88 -- '41 Stan Hack, 3B (6.10) -122
4.79 -- '78 Graig Nettles, 3B (5.90) -111
4.76 -- '82 Doug Decinces, 3B (5.83) -107
4.75 -- '98 Vinny Castilla, 3B (5.42) -67
4.69 -- '73 Sal Bando, 3B (5.74) -105
4.68 -- '41 Ken Keltner, 3B (5.84) -116
4.64 -- '27 Pie Traynor, 3B (5.12) -48
4.62 -- '54 Al Rosen, 3B (5.62) -100
4.62 -- '64 Ken Boyer, 3B (5.61) -99
4.60 -- '98 Scott Brosius, 3B (5.59) -99
4.44 -- '50 Eddie Yost, 3B (6.25) -181
4.42 -- '69 Ron Santo, 3B (5.72) -130
4.39 -- '42 Stan Hack, 3B (5.65) -126
4.37 -- '41 Joe Cronin, 3B (5.42) -105
4.35 -- '03 Jimmy Collins, 3B (4.57) -22
4.22 -- '02 Jimmy Collins, 3B (4.47) -25
4.20 -- '62 Jim Davenport, 3B (4.83) -63
4.17 -- '64 Dick Allen, 3B (5.24) -107
4.16 -- NeL Alec Radcliff, 3B (4.05) +11
4.11 -- '40 Billy Werber, 3B (4.28) -17
4.11 -- '73 Darrell Evans, 3B (6.03) -192
4.07 -- '60 Don Hoak, 3B (5.17) -110
4.03 -- '20 Heinie Groh, 3B (4.85) -82
4.02 -- '53 Hank Thompson, 3B (5.22) -120
4.01 -- NeL Judy Johnson, 3B (4.47) -46
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The Last Druid

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Re: ATG9 Salaries - Third basemen

PostThu Dec 05, 2019 7:15 pm

As a group, third basemen are the most over-priced cards in the set.


A remarkably definitive assertion, given that it is not even accurate.

Third baseman run about even with SS's on valuation for the top 20 players at each position. But after that there is a pronounced disparity between SS and 3B such that by the time you get to the 40th guys at each position, SS are significantly overpriced relative to the corresponding ranked 3B men. And that trend only gets exacerbated the further one goes down on the ranking list.

Similarly second base is not the most underpriced position. As groups, IB and the OF corners are more underpriced than 2B.

I almost hope that Garcia is reading these posts and adopts the salary modifications exactly as suggested. Might be interesting to see just how easy it is to exploit the proposed pricing being presented to us, which while remediating some obvious pricing mistakes, just creates a slew of other egregious pricing mistakes IMHO.
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RiggoDrill

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Re: ATG9 Salaries - Third basemen

PostSat Dec 07, 2019 3:55 am

I am going to review my defense chart for 3B, but I doubt it's going to change anything. Some data...

First, I've got JoeTheJet's ratings and they roughly agree with mine. 3B is the most over-priced position and 2B is the most under-priced position.
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RiggoDrill

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Re: ATG9 Salaries - Third basemen

PostSat Dec 07, 2019 4:01 am

Next, I looked at some of the top Barnstormers managers and who they chose as their third baseman...

Labratory

60M - Bobby Adams 2.32M
80M - Bill Joyce 5.10M
100M - Bobby Adams 2.32M
60M - Bill Joyce 5.10M
140M - Harlond Clift 9.07M
200M - John Beckwith 9.89

So Labrat's like my doppleganger. He's got some more expensive 3B at higher caps, but Lab is essentially in total agreement with my ratings. Bill Joyce is a comparatively outstanding value at 3B and Bobby Adams is the single best value third baseman available.
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RiggoDrill

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Re: ATG9 Salaries - Third basemen

PostSat Dec 07, 2019 4:08 am

Druid is an exercise in the old adage, "the exception that proves the rule..."

The Last Druid

60M - George Kell 5.90M
80M - John McGraw 7.91M
100M - Mike Schmidt
100M - Mel Ott 7.77
140M - Eddie Mathews 8.00
200M - John McGraw

'81 Schmidt and '50 Kell are among the highest value 3B. McGraw is a weird card in that it has sooooooo much OBP, but nothing else - I'm not really sure how to rate it. In any case, Druid eschewed that huge pool of over-priced 3B cards, with the exception of Mathews who he used in a high cap league.
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The Last Druid

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Re: ATG9 Salaries - Third basemen

PostSat Dec 07, 2019 9:12 am

My observations were based directly on Joe the Jet's ratings,in particular the overall/cost ratio. And based on that, SS are more overpriced than 3bmen. Not the top 2 or three guys, but if you look at the top 50 values at each position it isn't even close. Same with 2nd base vs 1st and the OF.

My actual player choices are not slavishly dependent upon any ratings. My choices are based on what works for me, and since that ain't exactly broke, I will continue in that vein.

Interestingly, Jet's ratings have Adams ranked (in Polo, just as an example) as the 238th best VALUE at 3rd base. He is on the pricing committee that that Garcia uses to get cards priced, but his overall/cost ratio metric tends to favor higher priced players, for whatever reason, although Monroe gets a very favorable value ratio for some reason that remains a mystery to me.
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RiggoDrill

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Re: ATG9 Salaries - Third basemen

PostSat Dec 07, 2019 10:43 am

The Last Druid wrote:[JoeTheJet] is on the pricing committee that that Garcia uses to get cards priced, but his overall/cost ratio metric tends to favor higher priced players...

If the salaries were actually based on the Jet's ratings, I think we'd be in good shape, but it appears they're getting derailed somewhere else in "the committee."
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RiggoDrill

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Re: ATG9 Salaries - Third basemen

PostSat Dec 07, 2019 10:58 am

The Last Druid wrote:Interestingly, Jet's ratings have Adams ranked (in Polo, just as an example) as the 238th best VALUE at 3rd base. ..., for whatever reason, although Monroe gets a very favorable value ratio for some reason that remains a mystery to me.

First, I think the Jet may have a "Value" column in his spreadsheets, however, I use my own a method of calculating value using Jet's straight card ratings modified by expected usage. The two samples you picked are unusual situations...

'55 Bobby Adams
- Polo Grounds is, arguably, the most extreme park in the set and since Adams doesn't have any power, it's not helpful to him. In an average park, Adams rocks! I double-check Jets' spreadsheet and he actually give slightly higher ratings to '55 Willie Jones and '19 Buck Weaver. That said, Labrat's unabashed love for Bobby Adams (I think he drafted Adams in the 1st or 2nd round of a Barnstormer's finals draft a few years ago) indicates he is more inclined to my assessment. ...like I said, Lab's my doppleganger.

NeL Bill Monroe - Monroe is unusual because he has two injury rolls on his card. Not taking usage into account, Monroe's card is a steal for the price, however, taking his injury risk into consideration, the card's value is above average (for 3rd basemen), but not spectacular.
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The Last Druid

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Re: ATG9 Salaries - Third basemen

PostSat Dec 07, 2019 11:48 am

Jet makes some assumptions in his value assessment that I just don't agree with either as well as with expected usage. My general rule of thumb though is if a guy has a .040 or better rating on the overall rating/cost metric, you are getting solid value. Problem is though with Adams his overall rating /cost metric is only .003 in Polo which suggests he is grossly overpriced. Even in Forbes '57 his value is still .006 and Jet has him as the 190th best value at 3B. His assessments on Adams are clearly off and thus there is some flaw in Jet's valuation system, which seems to contain a systemic bias against lower priced cards.

As far as Mathews goes, his 8M card has more value than Jet gives him credit for. His speed and defense suck, but the bottom line is his run production in lefty friendly and bomber parks, more than compensates.
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RiggoDrill

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Re: ATG9 Salaries - Third basemen

PostSat Dec 07, 2019 2:30 pm

The Last Druid wrote:As far as Mathews goes, his 8M card has more value than Jet gives him credit for. His speed and defense suck, but the bottom line is his run production in lefty friendly and bomber parks, more than compensates.

I completely agree, if you are playing '71 Shea Stadium or similar park, '53 Mathews is a valuable card. Also, I noted that these "proposed salaries" are first draft. There are still a lot of adjustments to be made and that Mathews card is an example of a card that would be adjusted up to reflect it's value in power parks. That said, I still think that card is too pricy relative to other cards in the set.

FWIW, I think we're basically on the same page with most of these questions. I wouldn't try to argue that my ratings/proposed salaries are perfect. Rather, the ATG8 salaries are highly problematic and need to be updated.
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