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Fri Sep 20, 2019 5:55 pm
Can someone confirm exactly what base stealing rules ATG is playing under?
Base Stealing ???
Moderator: Palmtana
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Sat Sep 21, 2019 6:20 pm
I would like to know the answer to this one myself Rich
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Sat Sep 21, 2019 8:28 pm
OK you asked for it. This is from the SOM wiki. I recommend a double shot of 5-hour energy before reading this.
(23.0) Super-Advanced Supplementary Stealing System
For the ultimate in strategy and realism, we recommend the Supplementary Stealing System. In this system, each baserunner is rated for the frequency with which he runs (the ability to get a good lead) and his success rate. He will be working against both the catcher's throwing arm and the pitcher's ability to hold runners close to the base.
(23.1) Ignore the baserunner's letter-grade stealing rating. Instead use the numeric rating found on the Advanced side of the batter's card, after the letter-grade rating. Here is a sample:
*8-10/11,12 (19-14)
The numbers preceding the slash are the range (when the two colored dice are rolled) indicating when the runner will establish his good lead. The numbers immediately after the slash are the range indicating when the runner will be automatically out stealing. Better base stealers have no automatic outs; you will see a hyphen (-) instead of a number range.
(23.11) Players who steal often have an asterisk (*) in front of their good-lead range. The asterisk indicates that if the defensive manager does not elect to hold the runner, the runner automatically achieves his good lead. If a runner does not have an asterisk, or if he has an asterisk but is held on base, he must roll the two colored dice to determine whether he achieves his good lead.
(23.12) Most pitchers and some batters have no number rating for stealing. If these players attempt a steal, they begin with a success chance of 0. After all adjustments (for hold, etc.), their minimum success is 1.
Some pitchers have Supplementary Stealing ratings. These pitchers will be listed separately on the roster sheet.
(23.13) The two numbers in parentheses indicate the runner's stealing success ratings (on a roll of the 20-sided die), the first when he has his good lead, the second when he does not.
(23.2) If the runner attempts to achieve his good lead and succeeds, he must attempt to steal immediately. So you will want to calculate his success chance first.
Here is a typical sequence for determining whether to steal and how to do it:
(23.3) Stealing Second Base
A. Combine the catcher's arm (which will range from -4 to +5) and the pitcher's hold rating (which will range from -6 to +9). This sum may not exceed the range of -5 to +5.
Example: Catcher's arm is -1, pitcher's hold is -5. Instead of a combined -6, the adjustment is -5.
Adjust the runner's success ratings accordingly. Example: Instead of (19-14) above, this runner is now 14-9 after a -5 catcher/pitcher adjustment.
B. The defensive manager decides whether to hold the runner on base. If so, there is further adjustment: -2 from the first steal success rating and -4 from the second steal success rating.
Example: Instead of 14-9, this runner is now 12-5.
Note that the effect of holding the runner is applied after calculating the catcher/pitcher adjustment, so the total effect can exceed -5.
C. The offensive manager decides whether to attempt a steal. If so, then first check to determine if the runner achieves his good lead.
1. If the runner has an asterisk (*) rating and the runner is not being held on base, then the runner automatically has his good lead.
2. If the runner does not have an asterisk (*) or he has an asterisk and is being held on base, then roll the two colored dice and check the runner's number range(s). If the roll falls within the range of the first set of numbers, the runner achieves his good lead. If the roll falls within the range of the second set of numbers, the runner is automatically out stealing. If the roll does not fall within either range, the runner has failed to achieve his good lead.
D. If the runner rolls for his good lead and achieves it, he must steal immediately. If the runner fails to achieve a good lead, he has the option of stealing at any time, or of holding his base.
The baserunner may make only one attempt for a good lead while he occupies the same base, unless:
1. If a runner being held on base attempts and fails to achieve a good lead, he may try for the good lead once more if the defensive manager later decides to cease holding the runner on base.
2. If the defensive manager changes to a pitcher with a worse hold rating or a catcher with a worse arm, a runner who has previously attempted and failed to achieve a good lead may try for the good lead once more.
E. If a steal is attempted, use the runner's adjusted first success rating if he has his good lead, and his adjusted second success rating if he fails to achieve his good lead.
If the runner is not being held on base, his adjusted success rating may exceed 20, in which case he is automatically safe. If he is held on, then his success rate may not exceed 19. His success rate may not be lower than 1.
Roll the 20-sided die to determine whether the runner is safe or out.
(23.31) On a successful steal with a dice roll of 1, 2, or 3, there is a possible throwing error by the catcher. Roll the 20-sided die again. Refer to the catcher's card for his "T" number(s). If the second roll is within the "T" range, the catcher has committed a throwing error, allowing all baserunners to advance one additional base. If the second roll was outside the catcher's "T" range, no error occurs.
If the defensive manager decides that the risk of the throwing error is greater than the value of attempting to throw the runner out, the catcher may elect to hold the ball rather than attempt the throw. This decision is made after the offensive manager has announced his intention to steal and before the 20-sided die in rolled to determine safe/out. If the catcher elects to hold the ball, the runner(s) safely steals the base and there is no possibility of a throwing error.
(23.4) Stealing Third Base
(23.41) To steal third, the runner will be using his adjusted second steal-success rating. So if he is being held on base, deduct 4 from his rating as well as the catcher/pitcher effect. Example: The (19-14) stealer above held on base by a pitcher with a +1 hold and a catcher with a -2 arm, would have a success range of 9 (14 -4 +1 -2 = 9)
Ignore the runner's asterisk on attempted steals of third base and home. He must roll within the range of his good lead in order to attempt these steals. If he fails to achieve his good lead, he may not attempt to steal. If the roll falls within the range for his automatic outs, then he is out stealing.
Otherwise, follow the instructions above for stealing second base.
(23.5) Stealing Home
(23.51) To steal home, the runner will be using his adjusted second steal-success rating. But there is no adjustment for the catcher/pitcher effect. Instead, deduct 9 from his second steal-success rating. And if he is being held on base, deduct an additional 4.
Example: The (19-14) stealer above will have a success range of 1-5 if stealing home while not being held, and a success range of 1 if being held.
Ignore the runner's asterisk on attempted steals of third base and home. He must roll within the range of his good lead in order to attempt these steals. If he fails to achieve his good lead, he may not attempt to steal. If the roll falls within the range for his automatic outs, then he is out stealing.
(23.6) Double/Triple Steals
In double or triple steals, only the lead runner's ratings will be used. The defense may attempt to throw out the lead runner only. The trail runner(s) automatically advance one base.
(23.7) Forced Steals on the Hit and Run
If the lead runner has not yet rolled for the good lead when a Hit and Run result requires the runner(s) to steal, then do so and proceed normally, making all necessary adjustments. If the runner has previously failed to achieve the good lead and the Hit and Run subsequently requires a steal, then proceed as you would for a runner who does not have a good lead.
If the lead baserunner is on second base and he fails (or has already failed) to obtain a good lead, he is automatically out trying to steal third base.
(23.8) Holding runners on base
(23.81) A runner may be held on base when the infield is playing Back. Additionally in Super Advanced Play, any runner may be held when the infield is playing the Corners In.
(23.82) Depending on the runner's base, he is held on by different fielders. Consult the RUNNER BEING HELD CHART on Page 15 to determine who has responsibility for holding the runner (the fielder covering the runner's current base and, if the potential steal is at second base, the infielder who would be taking the throw from the catcher).
(NOTE: Use the Runner Being Held Chart to determine the infielders responsible for holding runners, which supercedes the table titled, "Super Advanced Holding Runner Chart" on the Super Advanced Fielding Chart.)
(23.83) When an infielder is responsible for holding a runner and a gb()X is hit to him, add 1 to that fielder's range rating. Example: With a runner held at first and a lefthanded hitter at the plate, a shortstop rated 2e20 becomes 3e20. The maximum range rating is 5.
(23.84) Do not award a SINGLE** on a "gb()+" while runners are being held on base. Instead, when a gb()X to an infielder responsible for holding the runner results in a symbol followed by a "#", change that result to "SI2" (single, with all runners advancing two bases).
(23.85) When a runner is held on first or second, subtract 1 from his running rating when that rating is needed to determine whether he can advance an extra base on another player's hit. If the baserunner is not being held, add 1 to his running rating.
(23.9) Delayed steal of home
(23.91) With runners at first and third base, the offensive manager may attempt a "delayed steal" of home (this may not be attempted if either runner has previously rolled for a good lead). Use this procedure:
A. Do not roll for the lead. Instead, calculate the safe range for the runner at first by using his second steal rating number in parentheses and plus/minus the catcher's arm (do not adjust for the pitcher's hold rating or for the fact that the runner is being held on base).
B. If the runner on first attempts to steal, the defensive manager chooses whether to have the catcher hold onto the ball (this permits the steal of second, but prevents the runner on third from attempting to score), or to throw to second in an attempt to throw out the runner.
C. If the defensive manager chooses to throw to second, the offensive manager has the option of having the runner on third attempt to steal home. Calculate the safe chance by subtracting 5 from his second steal rating number in parentheses (do not adjust for the pitcher's hold rating, the catcher's arm or the fact that he is held on base).
D. If the runner on third attempts to steal home, the defensive manager has the choice: Let the throw go through to try to get the runner attempting to steal second, or cut off the ball and throw home.
E. After all choices are made, roll the 20-sided die to determine the result.
F. With two outs, if the defense throws out the runner going to second base, the runner on third does not score.
(24.0) Pickoffs and balks (optional)
If you are using the optional system for individual balks, wild pitches and passed balls, pickoffs and balks are possible when using the Supplementary Stealing System.
A more complete description of the balk-wild pitch-passed ball system is in Section 29. We include the pickoff/balk play here for your convenience:
(24.1) When rolling for a lead, also roll the 20-sided die along with the two colored dice.
A. If the 20-sided die roll is 3-20, discard the 20-sided die and continue normally with the Supplementary Stealing System. (If a steal is attempted, you will need to roll the 20-sided die again.)
B. If the 20-sided roll is 1, the runner attempting the lead may be picked off. Refer to the runner's second steal success rating (in parentheses) and roll the 20-sided again. If the number rolled is less than or equal to the runner's rating, the runner dives back safely, but has failed to achieve his good lead.
If the number rolled is higher than the runner's rating, the runner has been picked off (statistically, this does not count as a time caught stealing).
C. If the 20-sided roll is 2, there is a possible balk. Refer to the pitcher's balk rating (at the top of the Advanced side of his card) and roll the 20-sided die again. If the number rolled is less than or equal to the balk rating, a balk has occurred and all baserunners advance one base. If the number rolled is higher than the balk rating, the runner dives back safely, but the runner has failed to achieve his good lead.
(23.0) Super-Advanced Supplementary Stealing System
For the ultimate in strategy and realism, we recommend the Supplementary Stealing System. In this system, each baserunner is rated for the frequency with which he runs (the ability to get a good lead) and his success rate. He will be working against both the catcher's throwing arm and the pitcher's ability to hold runners close to the base.
(23.1) Ignore the baserunner's letter-grade stealing rating. Instead use the numeric rating found on the Advanced side of the batter's card, after the letter-grade rating. Here is a sample:
*8-10/11,12 (19-14)
The numbers preceding the slash are the range (when the two colored dice are rolled) indicating when the runner will establish his good lead. The numbers immediately after the slash are the range indicating when the runner will be automatically out stealing. Better base stealers have no automatic outs; you will see a hyphen (-) instead of a number range.
(23.11) Players who steal often have an asterisk (*) in front of their good-lead range. The asterisk indicates that if the defensive manager does not elect to hold the runner, the runner automatically achieves his good lead. If a runner does not have an asterisk, or if he has an asterisk but is held on base, he must roll the two colored dice to determine whether he achieves his good lead.
(23.12) Most pitchers and some batters have no number rating for stealing. If these players attempt a steal, they begin with a success chance of 0. After all adjustments (for hold, etc.), their minimum success is 1.
Some pitchers have Supplementary Stealing ratings. These pitchers will be listed separately on the roster sheet.
(23.13) The two numbers in parentheses indicate the runner's stealing success ratings (on a roll of the 20-sided die), the first when he has his good lead, the second when he does not.
(23.2) If the runner attempts to achieve his good lead and succeeds, he must attempt to steal immediately. So you will want to calculate his success chance first.
Here is a typical sequence for determining whether to steal and how to do it:
(23.3) Stealing Second Base
A. Combine the catcher's arm (which will range from -4 to +5) and the pitcher's hold rating (which will range from -6 to +9). This sum may not exceed the range of -5 to +5.
Example: Catcher's arm is -1, pitcher's hold is -5. Instead of a combined -6, the adjustment is -5.
Adjust the runner's success ratings accordingly. Example: Instead of (19-14) above, this runner is now 14-9 after a -5 catcher/pitcher adjustment.
B. The defensive manager decides whether to hold the runner on base. If so, there is further adjustment: -2 from the first steal success rating and -4 from the second steal success rating.
Example: Instead of 14-9, this runner is now 12-5.
Note that the effect of holding the runner is applied after calculating the catcher/pitcher adjustment, so the total effect can exceed -5.
C. The offensive manager decides whether to attempt a steal. If so, then first check to determine if the runner achieves his good lead.
1. If the runner has an asterisk (*) rating and the runner is not being held on base, then the runner automatically has his good lead.
2. If the runner does not have an asterisk (*) or he has an asterisk and is being held on base, then roll the two colored dice and check the runner's number range(s). If the roll falls within the range of the first set of numbers, the runner achieves his good lead. If the roll falls within the range of the second set of numbers, the runner is automatically out stealing. If the roll does not fall within either range, the runner has failed to achieve his good lead.
D. If the runner rolls for his good lead and achieves it, he must steal immediately. If the runner fails to achieve a good lead, he has the option of stealing at any time, or of holding his base.
The baserunner may make only one attempt for a good lead while he occupies the same base, unless:
1. If a runner being held on base attempts and fails to achieve a good lead, he may try for the good lead once more if the defensive manager later decides to cease holding the runner on base.
2. If the defensive manager changes to a pitcher with a worse hold rating or a catcher with a worse arm, a runner who has previously attempted and failed to achieve a good lead may try for the good lead once more.
E. If a steal is attempted, use the runner's adjusted first success rating if he has his good lead, and his adjusted second success rating if he fails to achieve his good lead.
If the runner is not being held on base, his adjusted success rating may exceed 20, in which case he is automatically safe. If he is held on, then his success rate may not exceed 19. His success rate may not be lower than 1.
Roll the 20-sided die to determine whether the runner is safe or out.
(23.31) On a successful steal with a dice roll of 1, 2, or 3, there is a possible throwing error by the catcher. Roll the 20-sided die again. Refer to the catcher's card for his "T" number(s). If the second roll is within the "T" range, the catcher has committed a throwing error, allowing all baserunners to advance one additional base. If the second roll was outside the catcher's "T" range, no error occurs.
If the defensive manager decides that the risk of the throwing error is greater than the value of attempting to throw the runner out, the catcher may elect to hold the ball rather than attempt the throw. This decision is made after the offensive manager has announced his intention to steal and before the 20-sided die in rolled to determine safe/out. If the catcher elects to hold the ball, the runner(s) safely steals the base and there is no possibility of a throwing error.
(23.4) Stealing Third Base
(23.41) To steal third, the runner will be using his adjusted second steal-success rating. So if he is being held on base, deduct 4 from his rating as well as the catcher/pitcher effect. Example: The (19-14) stealer above held on base by a pitcher with a +1 hold and a catcher with a -2 arm, would have a success range of 9 (14 -4 +1 -2 = 9)
Ignore the runner's asterisk on attempted steals of third base and home. He must roll within the range of his good lead in order to attempt these steals. If he fails to achieve his good lead, he may not attempt to steal. If the roll falls within the range for his automatic outs, then he is out stealing.
Otherwise, follow the instructions above for stealing second base.
(23.5) Stealing Home
(23.51) To steal home, the runner will be using his adjusted second steal-success rating. But there is no adjustment for the catcher/pitcher effect. Instead, deduct 9 from his second steal-success rating. And if he is being held on base, deduct an additional 4.
Example: The (19-14) stealer above will have a success range of 1-5 if stealing home while not being held, and a success range of 1 if being held.
Ignore the runner's asterisk on attempted steals of third base and home. He must roll within the range of his good lead in order to attempt these steals. If he fails to achieve his good lead, he may not attempt to steal. If the roll falls within the range for his automatic outs, then he is out stealing.
(23.6) Double/Triple Steals
In double or triple steals, only the lead runner's ratings will be used. The defense may attempt to throw out the lead runner only. The trail runner(s) automatically advance one base.
(23.7) Forced Steals on the Hit and Run
If the lead runner has not yet rolled for the good lead when a Hit and Run result requires the runner(s) to steal, then do so and proceed normally, making all necessary adjustments. If the runner has previously failed to achieve the good lead and the Hit and Run subsequently requires a steal, then proceed as you would for a runner who does not have a good lead.
If the lead baserunner is on second base and he fails (or has already failed) to obtain a good lead, he is automatically out trying to steal third base.
(23.8) Holding runners on base
(23.81) A runner may be held on base when the infield is playing Back. Additionally in Super Advanced Play, any runner may be held when the infield is playing the Corners In.
(23.82) Depending on the runner's base, he is held on by different fielders. Consult the RUNNER BEING HELD CHART on Page 15 to determine who has responsibility for holding the runner (the fielder covering the runner's current base and, if the potential steal is at second base, the infielder who would be taking the throw from the catcher).
(NOTE: Use the Runner Being Held Chart to determine the infielders responsible for holding runners, which supercedes the table titled, "Super Advanced Holding Runner Chart" on the Super Advanced Fielding Chart.)
(23.83) When an infielder is responsible for holding a runner and a gb()X is hit to him, add 1 to that fielder's range rating. Example: With a runner held at first and a lefthanded hitter at the plate, a shortstop rated 2e20 becomes 3e20. The maximum range rating is 5.
(23.84) Do not award a SINGLE** on a "gb()+" while runners are being held on base. Instead, when a gb()X to an infielder responsible for holding the runner results in a symbol followed by a "#", change that result to "SI2" (single, with all runners advancing two bases).
(23.85) When a runner is held on first or second, subtract 1 from his running rating when that rating is needed to determine whether he can advance an extra base on another player's hit. If the baserunner is not being held, add 1 to his running rating.
(23.9) Delayed steal of home
(23.91) With runners at first and third base, the offensive manager may attempt a "delayed steal" of home (this may not be attempted if either runner has previously rolled for a good lead). Use this procedure:
A. Do not roll for the lead. Instead, calculate the safe range for the runner at first by using his second steal rating number in parentheses and plus/minus the catcher's arm (do not adjust for the pitcher's hold rating or for the fact that the runner is being held on base).
B. If the runner on first attempts to steal, the defensive manager chooses whether to have the catcher hold onto the ball (this permits the steal of second, but prevents the runner on third from attempting to score), or to throw to second in an attempt to throw out the runner.
C. If the defensive manager chooses to throw to second, the offensive manager has the option of having the runner on third attempt to steal home. Calculate the safe chance by subtracting 5 from his second steal rating number in parentheses (do not adjust for the pitcher's hold rating, the catcher's arm or the fact that he is held on base).
D. If the runner on third attempts to steal home, the defensive manager has the choice: Let the throw go through to try to get the runner attempting to steal second, or cut off the ball and throw home.
E. After all choices are made, roll the 20-sided die to determine the result.
F. With two outs, if the defense throws out the runner going to second base, the runner on third does not score.
(24.0) Pickoffs and balks (optional)
If you are using the optional system for individual balks, wild pitches and passed balls, pickoffs and balks are possible when using the Supplementary Stealing System.
A more complete description of the balk-wild pitch-passed ball system is in Section 29. We include the pickoff/balk play here for your convenience:
(24.1) When rolling for a lead, also roll the 20-sided die along with the two colored dice.
A. If the 20-sided die roll is 3-20, discard the 20-sided die and continue normally with the Supplementary Stealing System. (If a steal is attempted, you will need to roll the 20-sided die again.)
B. If the 20-sided roll is 1, the runner attempting the lead may be picked off. Refer to the runner's second steal success rating (in parentheses) and roll the 20-sided again. If the number rolled is less than or equal to the runner's rating, the runner dives back safely, but has failed to achieve his good lead.
If the number rolled is higher than the runner's rating, the runner has been picked off (statistically, this does not count as a time caught stealing).
C. If the 20-sided roll is 2, there is a possible balk. Refer to the pitcher's balk rating (at the top of the Advanced side of his card) and roll the 20-sided die again. If the number rolled is less than or equal to the balk rating, a balk has occurred and all baserunners advance one base. If the number rolled is higher than the balk rating, the runner dives back safely, but the runner has failed to achieve his good lead.
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Sat Sep 21, 2019 10:07 pm
Rich,
Our discussion was the impetus for this, so you know my view, which is that expressed below from a thread in the General Strategy forum:
I know that's not definitive confirmation, but at least that puts a view out there for comment, and I agree with this.
This is the Super Advanced system of the board game, which another member posted above.
The * for the best base stealers simply means that if they are not held, they automatically get their good lead - you don't have to roll for it. A determination of good or bad lead is done based solely on the runner's numbers. After that is done, the negative value of the hold is calculated, either -2 (for a good lead) or -4 (for a bad lead). That hold number is added to the pitcher's hold number and the catchers throwing arm, not to exceed a -5.
So the most you can have taken off a runner with a good lead is -7. You can get a -9 on a runner without his good lead.
As we discussed, this is why a guy like Jim Fogarty has the potential to be very disruptive despite only an 18 good lead success rate and a poor bad lead success rate of 12 : his good lead numbers of 5-12 mean he gets that good lead 84% of the time, so the bad lead number isn't really so bad since it only comes into play 16% of the time.
There's another good thread or two discussing stealing on the forum somewhere (I think General Strategy forum) but I can't seem to find it.
Our discussion was the impetus for this, so you know my view, which is that expressed below from a thread in the General Strategy forum:
John's blog today addressed stealing and used Trouts 5/- 19-6 steal rating as an example.
This means when the computer attempts to steal with Trout it will first 'roll' two dice to see if he achieves a good lead. If the 'roll' is a 5 he achieves the good lead and will automatically attempt to steal 2nd base with a safe chance of 19 +/- the catcher's arm and pitcher's hold ratings and then minus 2 for being held on base. If the 'roll' is not a 5, the computer re-evaluates whether or not to attempt a steal with a safe chance of 13 +/- the catcher's arm and pitcher's hold ratings and then minus 4 for being held on base.
viewtopic.php?f=17&t=638740&p=5550149&hilit=stealing+good+lead&sid=0737bb4f9652ec91a302e1af99b6d884#p5550149
I know that's not definitive confirmation, but at least that puts a view out there for comment, and I agree with this.
This is the Super Advanced system of the board game, which another member posted above.
The * for the best base stealers simply means that if they are not held, they automatically get their good lead - you don't have to roll for it. A determination of good or bad lead is done based solely on the runner's numbers. After that is done, the negative value of the hold is calculated, either -2 (for a good lead) or -4 (for a bad lead). That hold number is added to the pitcher's hold number and the catchers throwing arm, not to exceed a -5.
So the most you can have taken off a runner with a good lead is -7. You can get a -9 on a runner without his good lead.
As we discussed, this is why a guy like Jim Fogarty has the potential to be very disruptive despite only an 18 good lead success rate and a poor bad lead success rate of 12 : his good lead numbers of 5-12 mean he gets that good lead 84% of the time, so the bad lead number isn't really so bad since it only comes into play 16% of the time.
There's another good thread or two discussing stealing on the forum somewhere (I think General Strategy forum) but I can't seem to find it.
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