Re: 200M DRAFT RANKING by WAR...work in progress
Posted: Tue Dec 26, 2017 12:42 pmThis is fascinating stuff Marc--and I've used the data in a recent 200M unique-franchise (one player per team) auto-draft league. Please keep the updates coming, if possible!
One or two questions. I drafted Mickey Mantle (boyhood hero, and I've never had him in any league!) as my Yankee, before I saw your post. And I noticed that his WAR went up each time you modified your rankings. He started at 4.91, then 5.01, then 5.5 in an August 29 post. I'm pleased to see his WAR go up, since I have his card, but I'm wondering what in your analysis might have caused that rather significant final improvement?
Also, I'm curious how you were able to incorporate OF and catcher arms into your evaluation data. I'm not sure I've seen anyone else who has been able to quantify the importance of the throwing arm. So if you're able to quantify arm stats, that represents something of a breakthrough, and I, for one, would love to hear more.
It's fascinating overall to think of WAR in a 200M context, and very smart of you to come up with this approach. Of course, a major difference with real baseball is that here the WAR players are generally top-level All-Stars and sometimes even MVPs (e.g. Dustin Pedroia) who nonetheless are indeed freely available in a 200M context. Is the gap between a real life replacement player and a 200M replacement a lot greater? Very few players in 200M crack WAR +4, whereas a +4 WAR is pretty common in real baseball.
I wonder how well a replacement level team would perform in 200M (Bottomley, Pedroia, routine low 9M SPs, etc.). I read somewhere that a replacement-level team in real baseball would probably post about a 29.5% w/l pct (about 48 wins, roughly equivalent to 50-win 1962 Mets). My guess is that a true 200M replacement team would probably do better than that (maybe about 60 wins?), but I could be wrong. Any thoughts?
One or two questions. I drafted Mickey Mantle (boyhood hero, and I've never had him in any league!) as my Yankee, before I saw your post. And I noticed that his WAR went up each time you modified your rankings. He started at 4.91, then 5.01, then 5.5 in an August 29 post. I'm pleased to see his WAR go up, since I have his card, but I'm wondering what in your analysis might have caused that rather significant final improvement?
Also, I'm curious how you were able to incorporate OF and catcher arms into your evaluation data. I'm not sure I've seen anyone else who has been able to quantify the importance of the throwing arm. So if you're able to quantify arm stats, that represents something of a breakthrough, and I, for one, would love to hear more.
It's fascinating overall to think of WAR in a 200M context, and very smart of you to come up with this approach. Of course, a major difference with real baseball is that here the WAR players are generally top-level All-Stars and sometimes even MVPs (e.g. Dustin Pedroia) who nonetheless are indeed freely available in a 200M context. Is the gap between a real life replacement player and a 200M replacement a lot greater? Very few players in 200M crack WAR +4, whereas a +4 WAR is pretty common in real baseball.
I wonder how well a replacement level team would perform in 200M (Bottomley, Pedroia, routine low 9M SPs, etc.). I read somewhere that a replacement-level team in real baseball would probably post about a 29.5% w/l pct (about 48 wins, roughly equivalent to 50-win 1962 Mets). My guess is that a true 200M replacement team would probably do better than that (maybe about 60 wins?), but I could be wrong. Any thoughts?