Biggest discrepancy between simulated & real life HR

My nomination is Goose Goslin

http://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1423564

1926: 17 HR, 33.4 AB/HR
Sim: 50 HR, 13.8 AB/HR

Ballpark effects gone wild!

Bonds has hit 114, which is 41 more than his real life number. But he and Goslin share one thing (also shared by Ralph Kiner) - their cards all reflect having played in VERY tough HR parks. The year bonds hit 73 HR, he hit 34 at home. All other LHB's that year combined for a total of 1 HR in that park, in about 2000 PA's. So for those of you who think the ballpark factors are exaggerated, they're really not.

Good point!

Good point indeed. But when Bonds squeared one up it was going out no matter where he was. Case in point 73-34=39. That is a gain of only 5 HRs when in other parks.

To say his HR numbers should be inflated when going away from that park is to miss one point. There were probably few fly balls hit in the home park that dies on the warning track where one might say if he just played in a smaller more hitter friendly park..... Bonds was either hitting a ground ball, a line drive that was not going out of any park because of the launch angle or he was putting the ball deep in the stands. That was the nature of his roided up advantage.

So I would say yes, even Bonds simulated strat numbers are inflated by ballpark effects more than they should be.

31 out of Frank Thomas here. But a lot of that is in extra PAs.

http://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/sim/1384943

Sorry, but Bonds has 8 BPHR, which is SOM's max. That means he is going to roll about 26 BP HR's on his card over the course of a season. 13 of those will come at home, and 13 on the road, no?

SOM usually sets things up so the average ballpark is about all 9's, so 9/20 X 13 = 117/20 or about 6 is how many BP HR we can expect him to hit on the road, and 1/20 x 13 = 13/20 or about 1 BP HR we can expect him to hit at home. And he hit 5 more. I'd say they did a pretty good job, no?

The ballpark #s are exaggerated, most especially with some great pitchers. Look at Seaver's '71 card - his best season by any reasonable metric - and then look up the hr's he gave up vs righties at home and on the road and then compare Shea's park effect hr's to the league average at baseball reference.com. Make a coherent case that those stats warrant 3# hr's against righties on his card. You won't be able to. Similar issues with Verlander in 2011 and Marichal in 1966 and most of the Palmer cards and probably several hundred others.

SOM did not do a good job with the ballpark hr's. For hitters, just look at Gehrig. There SOM overestimates the effects of Yankee stadium and takes away homeruns that he should have. Gehrig's '27 season and lifetime stats show that he hit hr's only slightly more frequently at home than on the road - and his overall career hitting and 1927 stats showed he was a much, much better hitter on the road than at Yankee stadium.

SOM screwed up the home run ballpark effects just as they screwed up clutch hitting. The 8 chances for #'s should probably be a maximum of 6 for a more accurate simulation of ball park homeruns. I don't, however, have a problem with ball park singles being 5 chances, they do screw up a lot though on denying some pitchers no ballpark singles.

I am convinced that when they come up with these innovations, such as their latest gimmick with the current cards, that Richman gets an idea, runs it by his minions who may or may not refine it, but that they don't do adequate research to ensure accuracy and don't playtest things enough to ensure playability.

While I came to accept them , I never liked the BP numbers or the clutch from the get-go

I suspect our hitters get a significantly greater number of plate appearances in our leagues than in real life -- eight more games per season for Kiner and Goslin, and more offense, especially in the higher caps.

That should contribute to the discrepancy.

All other LHB's that year combined for a total of 1 HR in that park, in about 2000 PA's.

You are seriously claiming that lefties only hit one home run all year in Pac Bell in 2001?