Point system for evaluating rolls

I don't seem to remember it, remember seeing it on the old boards, anyone remind me.

EG:

Homerun on a 7 roll
Homerun on a 4 roll
Single 1-10 on a 5 roll.

That kind of stuff.

There's a post on this:

Go to the "General Strategy" forum. I've bumped this post back up to the top - "General strategy/Newbie Advice thread". Go to page 2 and a post by Marcus Wilby, "Nice Rotation But.... How to Count the Cards" about 1/2 way down page 2- click on the link. It will take you to a page on the old strategy forum front the tsn site that will explain it.

Sorry - I'd link it, but it's hard on my iPhone.

There are 36 possible dice rolls, or 6 sides x 6 sides.

The least chances of how the rolls can turn out are for rolls of 2 and 12, each of which has just 1 chance. The most is 6 chances (for a roll of 7). This is because a 2 can only be rolled 1 way (1-1) and a 12 can only be rolled one way (6-6). But a six can be rolled 6 ways (1-5, 2-4, 3-3, 3-3, 4-2, 5-2). The chances for a roll get higher as your rolls approach seven and lower as your roles go beyond seven.

The way I remember the chances is to subtract one chance for every dice roll up to seven. Thus, a roll of 2 has 1 chance, a roll of 3 has 2 chances, a roll of 4 has 3 chances, and so on to a roll of 7, which has 6 chances.

After the 7 roll, the chances decline by one with each roll. Thus, a roll of 8 has 5 chances, a roll of 9 has 4 chances, and so on. You can also count the other way, adding 1 for each move up from a 2 roll or down from a 12 roll.

If you multiply the total number of chances on a given card you get 3 x 36 or 108. The combined chances on both the pitcher and hitter cards is 216. Thus, the chance of rolling a 2 in the third column on the hitter's card is 1 in 208. On average, you might see this roll about 3 times in a season (given 648 PA, i.e. 6 x 108). Thus an injury on the 2 point might result in an average of 3 injuries in a season. But the chance of rolling a 7 in the same column is 6 in 208, or about 1 in 35. You might see that roll, on average, about 18 times in a season. So a HR on the 7 for a hitter might be worth about 18 HR (assuming 648 PA). Not shabby.

This can be helpful when you want to evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of a card. For example, # BPHR on the 7 is much worse for a pitcher than a BPHR on the 3, especially in a power park.

If you're unclear on any of this - NEVER PLAY CRAPS!

I don't seem to remember it, remember seeing it on the old boards, anyone remind me.

EG:

Homerun on a 7 roll
Homerun on a 4 roll
Single 1-10 on a 5 roll.

That kind of stuff.

each column roll=x/36
2=1/36
3=2/36
4=3/35
5=4/36
6=5/36
7=6/36
8=5/36
9=4/36
10=3/36
11=2/36
12=1/36

So Single 1-10 on a 5 roll = Single on a 3 or 11 roll.

If you're unclear on any of this - NEVER PLAY CRAPS!

Noooooo, if it's unclear, play craps with me

There's a post on this:

Go to the "General Strategy" forum. I've bumped this post back up to the top - "General strategy/Newbie Advice thread". Go to page 2 and a post by Marcus Wilby, "Nice Rotation But.... How to Count the Cards" about 1/2 way down page 2- click on the link. It will take you to a page on the old strategy forum front the tsn site that will explain it.

Sorry - I'd link it, but it's hard on my iPhone.

Thx, I found it.

Next question, if you were to put a pt value on walks, singles, doubles, triples and HRs how would you do it? 1,1,2,3,4? IOW just like their value for total bases?

Reason I ask is I want to chart the 6-8 rolls on a card and put a pt system on their results. So just using the pt system on that link is not as accurate as it can be.

EG: Ruth's 15.1mil card has a 1-7 roll of a double, that would = 6pts. The 2-7 roll is a walk, but also is 6pts using that pt system, yet we all know a double is significantly better than a walk. That 2-7 roll would make more sense to be worth 12pts IMO.

Try Diamond Dope.