Ugghhh Injuries

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egvrich

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Ugghhh Injuries

PostSat Oct 17, 2020 7:06 am

https://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/l ... am/1600233

George Sisler has been injured 5 times in a little over 300 PA's. Mathematically he should have been injured roughly 1.5 times. But that's not my biggest gripe. Here's my concern ... Three of those injuries occured again during the series in which he had just returned.

Not proof, but certainly circumstantial/anecdotal evidence that there is some kind of hidden re-injury possibility in the game enginel
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ploughboy1526

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Re: Ugghhh Injuries

PostSat Oct 17, 2020 10:26 am

There are 108 chances on the batter's card, and 108 chances on the pitcher's card. That's 216. With a player that is a 2 injury, he has a 2 in 108 chance (54-1) of the injury roll on his card, and if you factor in the 108 chances on the pitcher's card, or a total of 216 possibilities, you have a 2 in 216 chance of an injury roll, or 108-1, or less than a 1% chance of an injury roll.

So let's say 600 plate appearances for such a player. You'd expect between 5 or 6 injury rolls a season.

The chances are 65% that the period of injury is 3 days or less (13 out of 20) - https://stratomatic365.fandom.com/wiki/ ... ury_System

Looking at the chart, the chance of a 3 day or more (9 OF 20) is: 45%.

The chance of 2 day or less (11 of 20) is: 55%

The chance of a 1 day or less (9 of 20) is: 45%

I'll leave it to the math proficient here to give a better breakdown, but I'd take what looks to be the median, 2 days of injury.

So you'd expect between a 10 and 12 game injury stat for a 2 injury guy with 600 appearances who is subject to the 15 game max. Again, I welcome anyone to provide more specific %s or point out errors in my calculations.

I'd wager that the balance is way above that for 2 roll injury guys. Strat 365 seems to be a lot worse than what simple dice rolls would forecast. And part of that does indeed seem to be something in the engine that makes close recurrences of injuries happen - as Rich has observed.
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ploughboy1526

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Re: Ugghhh Injuries

PostSat Oct 17, 2020 10:42 am

For a 1 roll injury guy, the odds are going be be 2X better - he'll have half the chance of injury of course.

So the odds are 1 in 216 of an injury roll.

Without going into detail but following up on my previous post, you would expect such a player with 600 plate appearances to have between 2.5 and 3 injury rolls a season on average.

Using the median of a 2 game injury, that means between 5 and 6 games lost a season on average for a 1 injury roll guy subject to the 15 game max.

Of course, if the max is a 3 game, that would change things considerably. Might take a look at those odds later.
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paul8210

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Re: Ugghhh Injuries

PostSat Oct 17, 2020 11:52 am

Despite the injuries, Sisler has played in 71 of 78 games and is on pace to equal or surpass his 1922 totals of games played and AB's. Pretty much need to wait until the season is over before reaching conclusions about injury quirks in the game engine.
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egvrich

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Re: Ugghhh Injuries

PostSat Oct 17, 2020 5:28 pm

Mark,

He is a 1 injury guy so with a little over 300 PA's that's how I derived the 1.5 injuries so far.

Paul,

Yes, it's a long season, but my point is that he was injured in 3 consecutive series and then a short while later back to back series.


Many have long believed there was a "re-injury" roll hidden in the game engine.
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Radagast Brown

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Re: Ugghhh Injuries

PostSat Oct 17, 2020 8:10 pm

Many have long believed there was a "re-injury" roll hidden in the game engine.


I am sorry if I come off like a Jerk but what "many people believe", is completely irrelevant.

People also believe ridiculous things like it's better to have a hitter's hits in the one column or the three column.

I have seen people who believe in a 100 win jinx. Or idiots like the Last Droid who think if his team starts hot and he doesn't go on to win 110 games it was the dreaded normalization monster who got him.

My point is, people believe all kinds of nonsense, and that definitely doesn't make it true.

Most players, most of the time, easily exceed their real life plate appearances, and games. I would say it is a very rare exception that a player is hurt more online than he was in real life.
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STEVENSTEFFANNI

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Re: Ugghhh Injuries

PostSat Oct 17, 2020 8:15 pm

I also notice players seem to get injured most in the last game of a series..anybody else notice that?....I lost Frank Robinson who is a italics 1 in back to back series myself
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coachprbb

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Re: Ugghhh Injuries

PostSat Oct 17, 2020 10:26 pm

https://365.strat-o-matic.com/league/injuries/team/1601334

Bill Dickey (Italic 2) injured 9 times in 66 games

CRAZY
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STEVENSTEFFANNI

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Re: Ugghhh Injuries

PostSun Oct 18, 2020 2:24 am

Just lost Robinson again in the first inning of his 8th game back for 3 more games!!!!!...nothing like like having your best player and most expensive player at 9 mil miss 11 out of the last 21 games...Im sure its just bad luck ..lol

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