Arky

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scorehouse

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Arky

PostMon Aug 12, 2019 8:54 pm

curious how many games he misses due to injury? great hitting but if he's out 20-30 games..... i haven't used him in a long time
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mykeedee

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Re: Arky

PostMon Aug 12, 2019 9:43 pm

Do you use Honus?
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Outta Leftfield

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Re: Arky

PostMon Aug 12, 2019 10:12 pm

I did an analysis of lost games due to injury several years ago, when DiamondDope still was still posting average actual per season performance for each player's card. I did a study looking at leading players in 100M of a quality that they would not be rested or platooned. (Think Ruth & Hornsby.) I posted my findings on the ATG discussion board several years ago. It didn't get much attention at the time, though I thought the results were pretty significant. Here's a quick summary

I found that 600 PA (1) players--with the three game risk--on average lost about 5% of plate appearances compared to bulletproof players. 15 game risk players (such as Arky) lost about 10% PA compared to bulletproof players, which would mean he would miss, on average, about 16 games a year.

So, I figure, hitter PA and games might go like this--on average-- for a full-time player:
Bulletproof: 700 PA, 162 games played
3 game risk: 665 PA, 154 games played
15 game risk: 630 PA, 146 games played (including Arky's 10M card)

This is, of course, an average. In some years, Arky might play 160 games and some years 135, but on average Arky would play about 146 and have roughly 630 PA, assuming 700 PA as a full season. I can republish the full study again if folks would like to see it. This kind of study can not be reproduced today since we no longer have Diamond Dope Actuals.
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egvrich

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Re: Arky

PostTue Aug 13, 2019 7:23 am

Outta Leftfield wrote:I can republish the full study again if folks would like to see it. This kind of study can not be reproduced today since we no longer have Diamond Dope Actuals.


Yes, please do.
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Outta Leftfield

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Re: Arky

PostTue Aug 13, 2019 10:36 am

egvrich wrote:
Outta Leftfield wrote:I can republish the full study again if folks would like to see it. This kind of study can not be reproduced today since we no longer have Diamond Dope Actuals.


Yes, please do.


OK. I'm traveling right now and away from my stuff. I'll post it in a few days, once I get home.
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STEVE F

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Re: Arky

PostTue Aug 13, 2019 12:06 pm

According to my calculations, Arky should miss 11-12 full games (this does not count any "remainder of game" at bats lost)
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scorehouse

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Re: Arky

PostTue Aug 13, 2019 5:46 pm

good stuff!!! keep it up. bottom line is he worth the lost games in a 100 mil league where there is no room for a decent backup. DH league so that really stretches the cap
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Outta Leftfield

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Re: Arky

PostTue Aug 13, 2019 9:49 pm

I would definitely use Arky in a 100M league in a lefty-friendly ballpark. Arky's is one of my favorite cards.
He will lose a few games to injuries, but he's also a lefty SS with a decent glove who will hit for power and average and draw lots of walks.
I don't really want to promote him and make him harder to draft, but let's give the fella his due. ;)

IMHO, the "15 game injury risk" can be overblown. 15 game injuries CAN happen, but they don't happen all that often. Very frequently, as Steve F suggests, a guy like Arky will play 150 games, have 650 PA, and be a major contributor to the team. A 130 game season is possible, but in practice comparatively rare.
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egvrich

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Re: Arky

PostWed Aug 14, 2019 7:53 am

Outta Leftfield wrote:IMHO, the "15 game injury risk" can be overblown. 15 game injuries CAN happen, but they don't happen all that often. Very frequently, as Steve F suggests, a guy like Arky will play 150 games, have 650 PA, and be a major contributor to the team. A 130 game season is possible, but in practice comparatively rare.


That's the balancing act. When you have a 15 game risk if he gets a 15 gamer early in the season, you're pretty much guaranteed to only get about 130 games out of the guy. Which makes it not worthwhile price vs. results. Perfect example: Every single time I use one of the 15 game risk Lajoie cards, he is guaranteed to get injured in the first week of the season for 15 games. Not exaggerating, it's a virtual guarantee it will happen to me every time I draft him.

I just completed a season with a team where every player was a 15 game injury risk and here are the season long injuries for the team:

https://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/l ... am/1515210

127 games worth of injuries.

31 of them to Ty Cobb who was injured SEVEN DIFFERENT TIMES.

But amazingly, not a single 15 game injury all season long. Team ended up losing in the Finals. It was an interesting experiment.
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Outta Leftfield

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Re: Arky

PostWed Aug 14, 2019 5:26 pm

On the SOM injury card, there's a 1 in 20 chance that any given injury will be for 15 games. Here's how it rolls out on the 20-sided die. The 3-game-only advantage for 600 PA players kicks in for injury rolls of 14 and above. Otherwise, it's the same as for regular player. It's not impossible by any means that a team could have a lot of injuries but none of them for 15 games, since in each case that 15 game roll is a twenty to one shot.

d20 Result
1-2 Stays in game
3-4 Inj. for remainder of game
5-8 Inj. for 1 extra game
9-11 Inj. for 2 extra games
12-13 Inj. for 3 extra games
14 Inj. for 4 extra games
15 Inj. for 5 extra games
16 Inj. for 6 extra games
17 Inj. for 7 extra games
18 Inj. for 8 extra games
19 Inj. for 10 extra games
20 Inj. for 15 extra games
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