Question about base stealing/pickoffs

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Sknsfan

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Question about base stealing/pickoffs

PostMon Jun 13, 2022 7:50 pm

TOP OF INNING 3
0 D.Gordon 3-11 Ground Out (1B) b-0 F9
1 S.Adams 1-4 Single (CF) b-1 F9
1 1 H.Wagner 6-5 Single (LF) 1-3 b-2 F9
1 23 T.Cobb sqz Single (C) 3-H 2-3 b-1 F9
Pickoff 1-o F9
Stolen Base 3-H F9
2 G.Sisler 2-8 Single (RF) b-1 F9
Stolen Base 1-2 F9
2 2 H.Trosky 6-6 Strike Out b-0 F9

Here is an inning from a game a bit back. I noticed I had missed Wagner stealing home at some point and went digging to find it.

My question here is about Cobb being picked off.

It's the 10.68mm card in the ATG9 set. his steals reads as follows:

*3-6/- (19-15)

From the rules definition online:
Detailed steal rating (following the A-E rating) -- The first number is the dice-roll (2-12) probability that the runner will get a good lead; the second number is the roll he would be picked off. Numbers not listed are the numbers he doesn't get a good lead. A wide range of getting a good lead usually means the player attempts many steals. A wide range of the second number means he gets picked too often.

Detailed steal safe chances (in parentheses at the end of the steal rating) -- If the runner gets a good lead (see number description to the left), the first number is the possibility he will be safe stealing, between 1-20. The second number is the possibility if he doesn't get a good lead. Nineteen is the highest number possible. A high first number indicates an accurate basestealer - if he gets a good lead, he usually makes it. A high second number means he is a true speed demon, able to steal even if he doesn't get a good lead.

I know there is some unfinished info in the above (Like the pitcher hold and catcher throw rating are used to adjust the steal safe chances) but the above reads to me like Cobb would never get picked off.

Anyone know what sort of Super-Advanced rules may effect things like this?
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Sknsfan

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Re: Question about base stealing/pickoffs

PostTue Jun 14, 2022 5:27 pm

In case anyone is interested in the answer it can be found in the general strategy section.
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TomSawyer

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Re: Question about base stealing/pickoffs

PostSun Aug 07, 2022 2:20 pm

Seems quirky. I once lost on an outfield E0 having an error. I just finished a game which featured consecutive pickoffs at 2b (of my runners).

You have to remember, this is a game I saw Walter Johnson give up 100 homers in a year. It may not be accurate.

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