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Re: 5 man rotation
Posted:
Tue May 19, 2015 9:55 am
by ironwill1
I have used a mixed 5 man with 2 SP*. I set my rotation to include the SP* guys in the first 2 slots and post the next best 2 SP (no*) pitchers. HAL will mixed the last 2 slots based on availability. This type of rotation helps in the playoffs.
Two real baseball things that SOM doesn't use:
1) 5 man rotation. I think the 1980 A's were the last team to have a 4 man rotation. Why do we even need to have a debate? We should be playing a 5 man in every 20XX season.
2) Playoff rotations should be shortened. I don't recall any team in the playoffs using 5 different starters. Playoffs should always be 4 man. This would easily accomplished by programming "off or travel" days.
Just saying...
Kevin
Re: 5 man rotation
Posted:
Tue May 19, 2015 10:35 am
by bbfan
IMHO, last two posts were right on, I was too lazy to articulate and type all that, but well stated gentlemen.
JT
Re: 5 man rotation
Posted:
Tue May 19, 2015 10:53 am
by blue turtle
Marc-
What's your take on an S6* vs. S7 or S8?
Let's say, for the sake of easy math, the pitcher averages innings pitched about the same as the fatigue number. Now the S6* is "worth" 240 innings, and the S7 is worth 224, only 6.7% penalty. Clayton Kershaw is anomaly this year as an S8, but he calcs out at 256, or another 6.7% more than the S6*, but 8.6% less than the S7*? Of course, this assumes "all other things being equal" for the cards in value.
Re: 5 man rotation
Posted:
Tue May 19, 2015 12:34 pm
by teamnasty
"Two real baseball things that SOM doesn't use:
1) 5 man rotation. I think the 1980 A's were the last team to have a 4 man rotation. Why do we even need to have a debate? We should be playing a 5 man in every 20XX season."
Completely agree with this. The 4 man, 315 IP-ace, simply doesn't exist anymore, and it's completely unrealistic to turn good modern pitchers who clear the 200 IP thresholds into 1970-vintage Steve Carlton's. It'd be a better, more nuanced, and realistic game if the 4-mans were eliminated for 20xx seasons.
I wouldn't have a problem though if you were allowed to use them in the postseason only, perhaps with some sort of effectiveness penalty on short rest. EXcept for Bumgarner baby.
Re: 5 man rotation
Posted:
Tue May 19, 2015 1:02 pm
by blue turtle
teamnasty wrote:"Two real baseball things that SOM doesn't use:
1) 5 man rotation. I think the 1980 A's were the last team to have a 4 man rotation. Why do we even need to have a debate? We should be playing a 5 man in every 20XX season."
Completely agree with this. The 4 man, 315 IP-ace, simply doesn't exist anymore, and it's completely unrealistic to turn good modern pitchers who clear the 200 IP thresholds into 1970-vintage Steve Carlton's. It'd be a better, more nuanced, and realistic game if the 4-mans were eliminated for 20xx seasons.
I wouldn't have a problem though if you were allowed to use them in the postseason only, perhaps with some sort of effectiveness penalty on short rest. EXcept for Bumgarner baby.
Can't dispute the starting pitching model in the game is out-dated; it still does resemble the 1960s and 1970s in many ways for starter pitchers.
In 2014, only 20 pitchers in the AL even started the 32-33 games a non-* SP is almost certain to start during the online season. The NL had 24.
A closer realism would be to make the *SP into non-* guys and to make the non-* guys into needing rest every 5 days, but I suspect the ripples from a change like that would be significant.
Re: 5 man rotation
Posted:
Wed May 20, 2015 12:16 am
by MARCPELLETIER
Blue T,
If I understood your question correctly, then the simple answer is: there is no penalty in the sense you mean it because expected innings are factored in the SOM price. If a S7 is expected to pitch 224 innings and if a S6* is expected to pitch 240 innings, "all other things being equal", like you wrote, prices follow correspondingly. You get "penalized" (you overspend) if you don't follow that expected pattern.
I know you made the maths easy in your example, but let me add that the maths are not as simple as fatigue number X number of starts. The expected number of innings that is factored in the price depends on the quality of the card---the less on-base allowed, the slower the fatigue comes in, and the less power yielded on the pitcher's card, the smaller the chance that he gets out early because of a big inning. When absolutely everything is being equalled, the difference between S6 and S7 is roughly 20 innings for the better cards, and it goes as long as 15 innings for cards valued at around 1M-2M.
To give an example, say you limit Zimmerman to six innings max, so he pitched 6 innings max as instructed, and let's say moreover that he has over the course of the season 2 bad starts in which he gets out early, and 4 starts where he's out after only 5 innings. Zimmerman is *SP, so you get 40 starts. With such pattern, though, he sums up to 230 innings. Because of the quality of this card, though, you should expect 40 games of quality starts----according to my estimation, you should expect at least 260 innings of Zimmerman. That's 30 innings lost from what you could expect. "Other things being equal", you lose 30/260 X 5.46M = 0.63M. In this example, you basically play with a 79.3M roster.
Hope it clarifies your issue.
Re: 5 man rotation
Posted:
Wed May 20, 2015 12:44 am
by ClowntimeIsOver
My current team has an interesting 5-man with 2 *'s
http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/team/1400827 It's a pitcher's park, and it was possible to have Baker start mostly at home, at least in the first half
he was set to start 26 times (but then one of the other SP got injured and it got pushed to 27), always quick hook 6 max -- ignoring his 2 relief appearances, his ERA as a starter is 3.56 so far -- a good use of 1m
Re: 5 man rotation
Posted:
Wed May 20, 2015 1:08 am
by MARCPELLETIER
For what is worth, I downloaded data for 10 completed "regular" seasons (range 70-100M) and computed the numbers of innings pitched for every pitcher for whom I had stats for at least two seasons. I had to make some adjustments---the most important, if a pitcher had less games started than expected, (for example a *SP with 36 starts) I adjusted the number of innings in order to project the expected number of starts (40/41 for *SP, 33/32 for regular SP)---I also removed innings pitched from the relief.
The last two colums represent that final number of innings pitched (with the number of seasons on which this projection is estimated). The third to last column is the number my formulas have predicted for every SP. As you can see, it's pretty damned close---only McCarthy is off by more than 10%.
- Code: Select all
Team Name BAL SAL INNINGS INN-PREDIC INN-REAL NB_SEAS
CLA Kluber, 3R 7.85 S(7*) 297 301.5 10
SLN Wainwri 3R 8.06 S(7*) 292 301.3 10
SEA Hernand 1L 8.53 S(7*) 307 300.3 10
CIN Cueto,J 1L 7.69 S(7*) 293 299.6 10
OAA Samardz 1R 5.95 S(7*) 290 292.4 10
DEA Scherze 2R 5.02 S(7*) 280 287.4 10
DEA Price,D 1R 5.80 S(7*) 291 280.4 9
MNA Hughes, 4L 5.15 S(7*) 287 280.4 8
OAA Gray,S. 1R 5.22 S(7*) 274 276.0 10
OAA Lester, 4R 6.16 S(7*) 286 273.8 10
DEA Porcell 1R 3.06 S(7*) 269 272.1 9
LAN Kershaw 1L 9.00 S(8) 280 270.8 10
WAN Strasbu 1L 2.91 S(7*) 275 268.3 9
MLN Fiers,M 2L 8.15 S(7) 253 265.8 7
WAN Zimmerm 1R 5.63 S(6*) 260 265.3 9
ATN Teheran 2R 5.26 S(7*) 282 264.5 6
SLN Lynn,L. 1R 4.16 S(6*) 246 262.8 8
PHN Hamels, 1R 4.69 S(7*) 274 260.2 8
MMN Fernand 4R 6.88 S(7) 245 249.1 8
WAN Roark,T 1R 4.61 S(6*) 254 248.9 10
SFN Bumgarn 2L 3.25 S(6*) 253 248.9 9
LAA Richard 1L 6.66 S(7) 233 245.9 7
MLN Lohse,K 2R 3.31 S(6*) 249 244.4 5
NYN Colon,B 3L 1.99 S(7*) 267 243.7 2
BAA Tillman. E 2.66 S(6*) 243 241.8 5
KCA Shields. 1L 1.95 S(7*) 264 240.8 8
CHA Quintan 2R 4.41 S(6*) 248 240.4 9
CHA Sale,C*. 4L 7.98 S(6) 233 238.6 8
NYA Kuroda, 2R 4.18 S(6*) 255 238.4 7
TOA Dickey, 3L 3.69 S(6*) 250 236.3 6
DEA Verland 6L 0.68 S(7*) 251 235.6 4
LAN Greinke 3L 4.10 S(6*) 256 233.7 6
SLN Lackey, 1L 1.62 S(6*) 240 233.5 2
TBA Archer, 2L 2.42 S(6*) 232 233.1 8
TOA Buehrle E 1.95 S(6*) 233 233.0 2
ARN Miley,W E 1.00 S(6*) 226 232.5 3
NYA Tanaka, 2L 5.31 S(7) 235 232.0 6
SDN Kennedy 1L 2.36 S(6*) 241 231.7 7
MLN Peralta 6R 2.45 S(6*) 237 231.5 3
CHN Arrieta E 7.45 S(6) 224 230.9 8
CIN Simon,A 1R 2.43 S(6*) 240 230.3 4
DEA Sanchez 2L 5.45 S(6) 214 230.3 6
CIN Leake,M 4R 0.71 S(7*) 248 228.2 3
LAA Weaver, 3R 2.18 S(6*) 243 225.3 2
CLA Carrasc 2L 7.90 S(6) 227 224.8 6
NYA Pineda, 1L 8.56 S(6) 242 224.5 6
MMN Eovaldi 2R 0.96 S(6*) 228 222.3 2
SEA Iwakuma 4R 4.18 S(7) 226 221.2 6
LAN Haren,D 4L 2.21 S(6) 202 218.4 2
HOA McHugh, 2R 5.63 S(6) 212 217.9 6
HOA Keuchel E 4.51 S(7) 218 217.1 7
WAN Fister, 1R 4.77 S(7) 229 213.8 7
SEA Paxton, 1L 3.91 S(6) 193 212.5 3
SFN Peavy,J 1R 0.89 S(6*) 231 212.4 3
ATN Wood,A* 1R 3.55 S(7) 214 209.9 6
KCA Duffy,D 7L 3.62 S(6) 202 209.9 4
OAA Kazmir, 3R 4.00 S(6) 201 209.6 6
SDN Hahn,J. 1R 4.00 S(6) 199 208.9 7
CHN Hendric 2L 6.09 S(6) 211 202.9 8
NYA McCarth E 1.98 S(6*) 243 202.7 3
OAA Pomeran 4R 5.50 S(5) 193 202.1 4
SDN Cashner 2R 4.56 S(6) 204 201.7 7
SDN Ross,T. 1L 3.61 S(6) 191 200.5 5
NYN Degrom, E 4.90 S(6) 199 200.5 8
LAN Ryu,H*. 2R 3.80 S(6) 196 199.9 7
SDN Despaig 3R 3.23 S(6) 186 199.7 3
SEA Young,C 5R 0.94 S(6) 182 199.2 2
TBA Cobb,A 2L 3.90 S(6) 199 198.2 7
MMN Alvarez 1L 1.86 S(6) 181 197.3 3
TOA Stroman E 4.74 S(6) 204 197.1 4
TEA Darvish 3R 3.17 S(7) 214 195.9 6
TBA Smyly,D 6L 2.73 S(6) 203 194.9 3
SLN Wacha,M 3L 3.69 S(6) 196 194.8 6
PIN Liriano 1R 2.60 S(6) 182 194.4 3
NYN Niese,J 1L 2.67 S(6) 190 193.5 4
LAA Shoemak 3R 2.86 S(6) 195 192.2 5
BOA Kelly,J 1L 2.45 S(6) 178 190.0 2
MLN Garza,M 1L 3.61 S(6) 195 188.5 4
OAA Hammel, E 3.32 S(6) 203 187.5 5
ATN Santana 3R 1.11 S(6) 172 187.0 2
SLN Miller, E 2.66 S(6) 189 186.8 3
PIN Worley, 2L 2.50 S(6) 185 185.6 2
SFN Petit,Y 5R 2.54 S(5) 185 185.2 3
PIN Cole,G. 1R 1.88 S(6) 181 185.2 4
DEA Lobstei 1L 3.70 S(5) 184 184.1 4
NYN Wheeler 4R 2.48 S(6) 178 183.7 2
NYN Gee,D.. E 2.60 S(6) 190 182.3 2
KCA Ventura 2L 2.29 S(6) 181 180.7 4
CON Anderso 4R 2.48 S(6) 183 171.0 4
Re: 5 man rotation
Posted:
Wed May 20, 2015 1:13 am
by MARCPELLETIER
Hey Clown,
That's why I love so much the cheaper SP---you can play the matchups without hurting your roster---if Baker finishes with 26 starts, instead of 32, that's a minimal loss at 1.06M for a lot to gain--avoid those BP getting banged on!!!
BTW, I did the same in my first Tour team----Baker is 3.06 so far
Re: 5 man rotation
Posted:
Wed May 20, 2015 2:05 am
by STEVE F
GREAT stuff Marc!