Pickoff Prevention

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wavygravy2k

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Pickoff Prevention

PostFri Mar 20, 2015 4:22 pm

My runners got picked off 4 times in 3 games last night. The amount of baserunning mistakes this team has endured is unbelievable. I've already scrapped Normal baserunning. Do I need to change from Normal base stealing to Conservative now too?

I did have bunting set to Aggressive. Does the engine think this bunt setting is actually base stealing?

Soler was one of the runners who got picked off and he had the 'Don't Steal' sign on.

What triggers these pickoffs anyways?

Pitcher/catcher ratings for the 3 games:
0/+2
Pickoff

+3/-3
Pickoff

+9/+2
Pickoff
Pickoff
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l.strether

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Re: Pickoff Prevention

PostFri Mar 20, 2015 4:45 pm

wavygravy2k wrote:My runners got picked off 4 times in 3 games last night. The amount of baserunning mistakes this team has endured is unbelievable.

Pick-offs aren't necessarily "baserunning mistakes" in either the real baseball world or the SOM world. So, your feeling of victimization is a bit exaggerated. In MLB, sometimes a pickoff is a result of a wicked pickoff move--Buehrle's and MadBum's being particularly wicked--or a situation demanding the runner expanding his lead. In the SOM world, much of the pickoff results come from the runner's inherent running "skills":

"Detailed steal rating (following the A-E rating) -- The first number is the dice-roll (2-12) probability that the runner will get a good lead; the second number is the roll he would be picked off. Numbers not listed are the numbers he doesn't get a good lead. A wide range of getting a good lead usually means the player attempts many steals. A wide range of the second number means he gets picked too often."

I'm truly surprised a player of your experience is unfamiliar with these posted game rules.
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Ninersphan

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Re: Pickoff Prevention

PostFri Mar 20, 2015 4:49 pm

wavygravy2k wrote:My runners got picked off 4 times in 3 games last night. The amount of baserunning mistakes this team has endured is unbelievable. I've already scrapped Normal baserunning. Do I need to change from Normal base stealing to Conservative now too?

I did have bunting set to Aggressive. Does the engine think this bunt setting is actually base stealing?

Soler was one of the runners who got picked off and he had the 'Don't Steal' sign on.

What triggers these pickoffs anyways?

Pitcher/catcher ratings for the 3 games:
0/+2
Pickoff

+3/-3
Pickoff

+9/+2
Pickoff
Pickoff


What's your hit and run setting?, that effects base stealing WAY more than bunting. If you are set to aggresive you may be getting slow runners hung out to dry.

Did you runners have a pick off number? what are their lead numbers? if it's something like 5,6/12 the 12 ( or any number after the slash) means they get picked off trying to get the lead, and you simply have to chalk it up to bad dice rolls.

Also what are you doing on individual basis? I tend to leave base stealing at normal and deal with my base stealers on a hitter to hitter basis. Be aware if you set aggressive (team)or "steal more" (individual), your base stealers will start to do things like trying to take 3b and or home in situations you likely wouldn't want them to
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wavygravy2k

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Re: Pickoff Prevention

PostFri Mar 20, 2015 5:43 pm

Hit and run is set to Normal

Other 3 victims:
Victor Martinez stealing-(D) 5/- (13-6)
Adrian Beltre stealing-(E) 3/- (13-5)
Jean Segura stealing-(A) *2-6/- (17-13)

If there's a number after the slash I've always tried to instruct each and every one of them to never steal.

I'm not using any H&R more or Steal more options. I did set 5 guys to Sac bunt More.
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Ninersphan

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Re: Pickoff Prevention

PostFri Mar 20, 2015 7:55 pm

wavygravy2k wrote:Hit and run is set to Normal

Other 3 victims:
Victor Martinez stealing-(D) 5/- (13-6)
Adrian Beltre stealing-(E) 3/- (13-5)
Jean Segura stealing-(A) *2-6/- (17-13)

If there's a number after the slash I've always tried to instruct each and every one of them to never steal.

I'm not using any H&R more or Steal more options. I did set 5 guys to Sac bunt More.


The Sac/Squeeze charts have no bearing on stolen base numbers though. Really thought it would be Hit and Run but shouldn't be with the setting you are using, you may just have to chalk it up to bad dice rolls

I can't imagine what's going on.

I will say I LOATHE the hit and Run chart in Strat and set all my hitter to never H&R and move the setting to extra conservative, partly so I can avoid getting a guy hung out to dry on a bad attempt.


Here's the rules on super advanced individual pick off and balks, which I'm pretty sure the online game uses. It's not just the numbers Strether mentions in his post above that can get a guy picked off.

24.0 PICKOFFS AND BALKS (OPTIONAL)

If you are using the optional system for individual balks, wild pitches and passed balls, pickoffs and balks are possible when using the Supplementary Stealing System.

A more complete description of the balk-wild pitch-passed ball system is in Section 29. We include the pickoff/balk play here for your convenience:

24.1 When rolling for a lead, also roll the 20-sided die along with the two colored dice.

A. If the 20-sided die roll is 3-20, discard the 20-sided die and continue normally with the Supplementary Stealing System. (If a steal is attempted, you will need to roll the 20-sided die again.)

B. If the 20-sided roll is 1, the runner attempting the lead may be picked off. Refer to the runner's second steal success rating (in parentheses) and roll the 20-sided again. If the number rolled is less than or equal to the runner's rating, the runner dives back safely, but has failed to achieve his good lead.

If the number rolled is higher than the runner's rating, the runner has been picked off (statistically, this does not count as a time caught stealing).

C. If the 20-sided roll is 2, there is a possible balk. Refer to the pitcher's balk rating (at the top of the Advanced side of his card) and roll the 20-sided die again. If the number rolled is less than or equal to the balk rating, a balk has occurred and all base runners advance one base. If the number rolled is higher than the balk rating, the runner dives back safely, but the runner has failed to achieve his good lead.



As I said, reading through this, it might just be a run of bad luck for you, in which case there's no real way to prevent it.
I'd monitor it though and if it keeps happening bring it to supports attention, maybe there is a bug :? :?:
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milleram

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Re: Pickoff Prevention

PostFri Mar 20, 2015 9:14 pm

There are a lot of batters out there that stole 1 base, didn't get caught and have a 2/- (20-6) stealing rating.

These guys get picked off often if you set them to steal more---sometimes I even set these guys to don't steal--and if you hit & run behind them their pickoffs go up too.

See above post on pickoff rules to see why---these pickoffs do not count as caught stealing.

If you have someone with a 2-7/10 (15-10) stealing rating and the roll is 10--it does count as caught stealing--not a pick-off.
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MARCPELLETIER

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Re: Pickoff Prevention

PostFri Mar 20, 2015 9:26 pm

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but if you select to put the no steal sign, then there's no chance to being picked off. So...

In Soler case, I'm certain it's a case of a hit and run that turn bad. You should have a look if the decision of choosing the h-r option made sense.

Also, just to fact check, but i'm pretty sure that a rating such as 5-6/12, the 12 refers to a caught stealing, not a pick-off
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Ninersphan

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Re: Pickoff Prevention

PostFri Mar 20, 2015 9:31 pm

MARCPELLETIER wrote:
Also, just to fact check, but i'm pretty sure that a rating such as 5-6/12, the 12 refers to a caught stealing, not a pick-off


Correct

23.1 Ignore the base runner's letter-grade stealing rating. Instead use the numeric rating found on the Advanced side of the batter's card, after the letter-grade rating. Here is a sample:

*8-10 / 11, 12 (19-14)

The numbers preceding the slash are the range (when the two colored dice are rolled) indicating when the runner will establish his good lead. The numbers immediately after the slash are the range indicating when the runner will be automatically out stealing. Better base stealers have no automatic outs; you will see a hyphen (-) instead of a number range.
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MARCPELLETIER

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Re: Pickoff Prevention

PostFri Mar 20, 2015 11:04 pm

Okay, and I just confirmed by readingthat a pickoff is possible only if the coach decides to attempt to steal. So, I would guess it's not possible if you opt for the no steal option.

So the question is when is it profitable to let Hal attempts to steal? Of course, it depends of several context issues (stadium, type of offense), but let us say we feel confortable if we have a 2:1 ratio of SB:(CS and PO together). You fell below the 2:1 euilibrium at 3(20-6). For a 3(20-6) runner not being held, 36 trials to steal second will translate on average in 2 steals. But you'll need to check for the PO on average 1.8 times, with a PO rate Of 70%, for a rate of 1.26 PO for the 2 steals.
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STEVE F

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Re: Pickoff Prevention

PostFri Mar 20, 2015 11:56 pm

The 3(20-6) stealer is one of the biggest sucker bets in this game. I play a LOT of netplay, and I see guys try this all the time.
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