What comes after the secret formula?

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freeman

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Re: What comes after the secret formula?

PostFri Jan 03, 2020 1:22 pm

Avoid gimmick teams is the same to me as saying there is no secret formula. There is no reason to limit your strategies and clearly some so-called gimmick teams win. Manipulating the game where teams have the same salary cap to provide significant separation tends to require taking teams to some kind of extreme. I also don't get the never drop players rule that so many players seem to worship. The reality is that strategies in your head run into the reality of results. You always have to assess whether it is just bad luck...or there is something lacking in your strategy, the balance between your defense, starting pitching, and relief pitching or the players you selected. Many times tweaks can help a team win. If a team need a wholesale teardown then you are probably out of luck no matter what...but some changes can really help and at least in the first 40 games can be done relatively cheaply. With regard to overpaying closers that only pitch 40 innings, that's true, but an elite C6 closer can really help a team and you can have him pitch far more than 40 innings--but you have to have the right relief settings to do it. I tend to focus on developing my own strategies rather than targeting those in my division. Yes, a few tweaks are in order if there are extreme teams/parks that don't fit mine, but nothing too significant. I got my strategy...it's usually too late at the waiver stage to radically go in a different direction.

One thing you learn (I think) is that merely manipulating your home park advance is not enough, because everyone else is doing the same. You need some other theory to separate your team. My theory is the game is not always linear--I'm not sure that is the right word--but that a card's value can have more or less value (not just the increased value due to ballparks ef settings) in a particular ball park by how it is paired with other cards. You have to find nodal points in the game where a hit is not a hit is a hit is a hit...but has more value because it results in more runs (or fewer runs if you transferred it from a batter to a pitcher's card). If you are in Citizens and you have a lot of homeruns...but fail to get enough on-base...you are not going to score a ton of runs. So how do you get a team in Citizens that hits 300 hrs AND has an on-base of .320...AND has an ERA under 4? If you can square that circle...then you probably have a really good team. How can you be near the top in runs in Marlins...and still be the near the top in pitching as is normal?
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elpasopesos

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Re: What comes after the secret formula?

PostSat Jan 04, 2020 5:22 pm

freeman wrote:Avoid gimmick teams is the same to me as saying there is no secret formula. There is no reason to limit your strategies and clearly some so-called gimmick teams win. Manipulating the game where teams have the same salary cap to provide significant separation tends to require taking teams to some kind of extreme. I also don't get the never drop players rule that so many players seem to worship. The reality is that strategies in your head run into the reality of results. You always have to assess whether it is just bad luck...or there is something lacking in your strategy, the balance between your defense, starting pitching, and relief pitching or the players you selected. Many times tweaks can help a team win. If a team need a wholesale teardown then you are probably out of luck no matter what...but some changes can really help and at least in the first 40 games can be done relatively cheaply. With regard to overpaying closers that only pitch 40 innings, that's true, but an elite C6 closer can really help a team and you can have him pitch far more than 40 innings--but you have to have the right relief settings to do it. I tend to focus on developing my own strategies rather than targeting those in my division. Yes, a few tweaks are in order if there are extreme teams/parks that don't fit mine, but nothing too significant. I got my strategy...it's usually too late at the waiver stage to radically go in a different direction.

One thing you learn (I think) is that merely manipulating your home park advance is not enough, because everyone else is doing the same. You need some other theory to separate your team. My theory is the game is not always linear--I'm not sure that is the right word--but that a card's value can have more or less value (not just the increased value due to ballparks ef settings) in a particular ball park by how it is paired with other cards. You have to find nodal points in the game where a hit is not a hit is a hit is a hit...but has more value because it results in more runs (or fewer runs if you transferred it from a batter to a pitcher's card). If you are in Citizens and you have a lot of homeruns...but fail to get enough on-base...you are not going to score a ton of runs. So how do you get a team in Citizens that hits 300 hrs AND has an on-base of .320...AND has an ERA under 4? If you can square that circle...then you probably have a really good team. How can you be near the top in runs in Marlins...and still be the near the top in pitching as is normal?



I agree with your assessments, especially the last paragraph. however when you say "avoid gimmick teams is the same as saying there is no secret formula, you show a profound misunderstanding of what I mean by gimmick teams." I mean building a team on some zany idea like all switch hitters. The so-called secret formula is a flawed theory that has been refuted over and over again. When you speak of squaring the circle, that is the exact type of balance I am referring to.
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freeman

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Re: What comes after the secret formula?

PostSat Jan 04, 2020 9:18 pm

I wish my post was not as reactive/contentious. I should have just put my thoughts without reacting to yours. I'm just an ok manager, nothing special. And I think finding the right balance in the game is important For me, the right balance between hitting/pitching/defense and starting pitching/relief pitching/ and hits/on-base/homeruns/speed for particular ballparks is perhaps the secret formua or probably one secret formula--but it's one that constantly evolves as more data comes in. And of course if it didnt there would be little reason to play...

By analogy, and I dont know this for sure...but kind of seems to me like since Brady and Brees are aging that New Orleans and New England have reallocated their resources to reflect that. You are not going to try to build an elite receiving corps when it is not going to pay off like it once did. Some players focus on assessing the value of individual players and see if they are over/under-priced. I'm more focused on allocating resources to different areas of my team and hoping for a differential impact.

And I agree that a gimmick just to be gimmicky...is likely just donating your credit to another owner. But if you have a solid reason for doing so, then I would say that's ok.

Anyway, thanks for your posts. It provoked me to think and that's a good thing. Best of luck.
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J-Pav

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Re: What comes after the secret formula?

PostSat Jan 04, 2020 10:26 pm

Um, flawed theory that has been refuted over and over?? :lol:
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elpasopesos

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Re: What comes after the secret formula?

PostSat Jan 04, 2020 10:50 pm

J-Pav wrote:Um, flawed theory that has been refuted over and over?? :lol:


I find it amazing that you troll the boards for a mention of your "secret formula", which of course is not at all secret but from which you profit, right? All 12 reams in a league just need to follow your formula and they will all make the playoffs.
Nothing personal, J-Pav. I just think that the game is too complex that a formula can give you success.
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elpasopesos

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Re: What comes after the secret formula?

PostSat Jan 04, 2020 10:53 pm

freeman wrote:I wish my post was not as reactive/contentious. I should have just put my thoughts without reacting to yours. I'm just an ok manager, nothing special. And I think finding the right balance in the game is important For me, the right balance between hitting/pitching/defense and starting pitching/relief pitching/ and hits/on-base/homeruns/speed for particular ballparks is perhaps the secret formua or probably one secret formula--but it's one that constantly evolves as more data comes in. And of course if it didnt there would be little reason to play...

By analogy, and I dont know this for sure...but kind of seems to me like since Brady and Brees are aging that New Orleans and New England have reallocated their resources to reflect that. You are not going to try to build an elite receiving corps when it is not going to pay off like it once did. Some players focus on assessing the value of individual players and see if they are over/under-priced. I'm more focused on allocating resources to different areas of my team and hoping for a differential impact.

And I agree that a gimmick just to be gimmicky...is likely just donating your credit to another owner. But if you have a solid reason for doing so, then I would say that's ok.

Anyway, thanks for your posts. It provoked me to think and that's a good thing. Best of luck.


Your post has also caused me to think and I appreciate your point of view. I was just giving some advice form the things that have helped me have successful teams. (I also learned from the not so successful ones as well)
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J-Pav

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Re: What comes after the secret formula?

PostSat Jan 04, 2020 11:08 pm

Your post is a little confusing.

“Trolling” the boards? Profiting from posts in an open forum?? Personal attacks, but hey they’re not personal???

What did I ever say or do to you that led to such a complete misunderstanding here?
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freeman

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Re: What comes after the secret formula?

PostSun Jan 05, 2020 1:20 am

This argument appears to go back a ways:

http://forum.onlinegames.strat-o-matic. ... 7&start=20

I think with regard to the Secret Formula Visick said it best 8 years ago (in above link):
"I guess for arguements sake, it's more tips and a guideline rather than a 'Secret Formula'."

More importantly, it started discussion which was beneficial. And the 1 or 2 in ss, 2b or CF "rule"is a still good rule of thumb. What is sad is the dead state of these boards...

We can all disagree about strategy...but perhaps we can be charitable about our intentions? I only wish J-Pav started these discussions like he did back then.

I think we can agree at least...that it's not worth having ill-feelings about. Now let me go back and stare at my 104 win team....
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Palmtana

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Re: What comes after the secret formula?

PostSun Jan 05, 2020 1:27 am

Go here for the many years history of the Secret Formula. 1st post.

J-Pavs disclaimer for the holistic use of the Secret Formula:

Before we continue, let me add the obligatory disclaimer here, before I get shellacked with the inevitable contrarian points of view. This is the third year I've done this, but those who remember "back in the day" know that The Secret Formula was a tongue in cheek response to a thread started by our good friend Coffeeholic three seasons ago called "What's Your Dream Team?" This is not an absolute, this is not the be all end all, this is not the only way to Strat-O heaven. This is just one strat-o-holic's observations, shared with not only those who don't know, but those who don't yet know they don't know. I hope everybody enjoys it and it generates a little discussion.


The Secret Formula in its first utterance:

(from the same 2006 post as above)
1. $32 million on pitching, $48 million on hitting (or thereabouts).
2. Spend for "1s" and "2s" at SS, CF and 2B.
3. To win in '05, you must get the most mileage out of your pitching.
3A. Low WHIP (leaning towards lower total bases, I argue).
3B. Low ERA (you must finish well in runs allowed)
4. Players suited to your park (there is a tendency for Shea and Minute Maid to be the CHAMPS' park of choice).
5. Study the CHAMPS teams you've played against, as well as the teams with the best winning records in the Record Book.
6. Win your division. You can't win it all if you're not in the playoffs to begin with. After that, it's pretty much a numbers game (and luck) to win it all (10 teams=four playoffs=one title).

elpasopesos wrote:Here you go:
1. There is no secret formula. J Pav often creates teams that have no back ups when players get injured. One really bad injury to a key player could mean 5 wins.

2 Never ever drop players. You are just throwing away cash. Develop a strategy and stick with it to the end. Try to spend every dollar. Make trades if you need major changes.

Best practices. Although occasionally a team with pared RV will succeed.

3 During waivers pay very close attention to the parks and lineups in your division. 81 games are in your park but 36 more are in your division parks. Do you need a lefty killer because your division starts a lot of lefties?

Secret Formula - #6


4 Don't over pay for a closer that will only pitch 40 innings.

Best practices.


5. With the exception of the 5th starter in an all * 4 man rotation, make sure every player has a purpose. I use the expression "balance balance balance" to apply to my teams Not too much pitching in relation to hitting, not so much defense to sacrifice speed etc. You will use the value of every player.

Secret Formula - #1


6. Avoid gimmick teams. All starters under 1 million. All 1 defense. All players steal. etc.

Best practices.

7 Avoid using a player in a weaker position. Id you don't use him in his strongest position you are not maximizing his value.

Best practices.

So between your best practices points, which I’m sure fit in nicely to the Secret Formula parameters, and your adherence to a couple of the Secret Formula ideas, you and J-Pav have some commonality.

After 15 years the discussion continues.
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J-Pav

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Re: What comes after the secret formula?

PostSun Jan 05, 2020 1:35 am

Thx Palmtana - 8-)

I’m still rolling in cash from my Secret Formula royalties, so no need to make new posts anyways. :lol:
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