How bad can you be Part two

I haven't played enough online to know if the pricing of players is generally correct, but I assume there is a formula to it and some of the smarter guys here should be able to pick the formula out, more or less.

I would like to know if the pricing formula includes the park the player played in, or is based on a neutral park--say a 8 singles and 10 homerun park---(I assume an 1-8 singles park is neutral as there are 2 singles on the cards if you ignore this BP effects for the board game.)

Players like Phillips 2013--4.8 is too much I think--make me wonder about pricing--I don't think he has enough BP hrs for his price even for for GAP--though I tried him on one team as I missed on the guy I wanted--he was awful, OB below .250 for the season.

I'm still on the fence as to most saying that one fielders are overpriced--to me some are, and some aren't just like the rest, and sometimes it depends on where they bat in the lineup--for instance a one fielder that has low ob.pct as a hitter low in the lineup is more valuable than if he hits up in the order, and a poor fielder that is a good leadoff guy will get more ABs--somewhat making up for the bad defense.

I can see why some cards are over or underpriced generally--Venable comes to mind for me--he is a steal for the price in Progressive. My limited playing tells me the park and the cards you pick for the park are paramount.

On another note--- I think luck is a bigger factor than some realize---playing the CD rom version of the game you can replay seasons and/or drafted teams over and over -- I have done this dozens, even hundreds of times for the same teams and settings and have found that +/- 12 game swings for any team in a 162 game season are pretty common, probably falling into a 50% range of a bell curve.

Meant to post this here:

I'm going to sacrifice a credit to try and draft the lineup I posted in the previous thread. If I can draft that in an auto league, I THINK it might be a good control...or maybe I'll just be proving a handful of players are overvalued? But then again, is the mispricing an element that could cause someone trying to break .500 to actually fail miserably (outside of salary dumps)?

So the draft just went, I got every single pick on my draft card...$79.95M

I guess most people have learned to avoid this overpriced gang of under-achievers:

http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/team/1392139

1's and 2's up the middle...and everywhere, except for LF and 1B.

I think it could represent a team that is trying to win, but will fail miserably. (Although now I find myself rooting for them!)

Well I caved...there was just too much FA talent sitting out there, so I've had a massive overhaul this AM to convert to a winning (hopefully) squad. Pitching was slim pickings though...may still have some work to do there.

A late reply, but wanted to give some feedback

To Teamnasty comment about ignoring out-types,

I disagree to some extent. Perhaps in neutral stadiums, but in extreme stadiums, say Coors or Fenway with singles at 18-19, I wouldn't go on without looking at gbA chances, especially on pitchers. If you assume 6000 PAs for a season, 3000 PAs for home field, there is about 70-80 more singles in Coors vs neutral. But yes, looking at gbC/flyA is probably not worth the effort---just something cool to incorporate in a rating system if one can do so.

To milleram, about 1-rated middle infielders being overrated,

Overall, according to my ratings, they are rated just right. My ratings have a few 1-ss overrated, Hardy, Simmons--both were picked up as overrated earlier in this thread. Escobar is another 1-rated infielder that has been mentioned in other posts as overrated. He does appear slightly overrated, but not by much.

You mention Phillips as overrated, Phillips stands as just right, a better purchase than Hill in neutral parks, but Kinsler or Infante appear better values. Of course, for Phillips price, you don't get much offense. You pay mostly for defense, but this is what a 1 rating is worth in the middle infield. If his defense ratings were neutral, roughly 3e15 for second base, his card would be worth 1.42M, which seems right to me. Tony Sanchez has probably the card that offensively is the most similar to Phillips. Sanchez has a bit more power than Phillips, particularly vs lhp, with similar on-base on both side. Given that Sanchez has no running and his defense is below average, you basically pay 1.76M for his offense. If you factor in the nice +12 cluch rating for Phillips, and his injury-free risk, 1.42M doesn't seem far off his right value for his offense.

Most of the names that have been mentioned as overrated in this thread are indeed worth less according my ratings than in SOM, like Soto, C. Santana, Simmons, Raburn, J. Upton, Seager, Stanton, Butler--although, in the latter two cases, their defense are so poor that they should be considered primarly as dh options. So I do believe that there is something that SOM doesn't pick up right in their ratings.

But a few names that were mentioned appear in my ratings as good buys but were described as busts by many people, Dozier and Barton are two of them, but I think I can explain that away.

Dozier is a case where his value entirely depends on the percentage of lefties he'll face. In "regular environnements", say 28% of lefty pitching, his value appears okay in my ratings, perhaps even slightly underrated. At 35% of lefty piching, Dozier appears as the best value in the set among 3M+ players if we look only at position players--excluding dh (as always, assuming neutral parks, which might not be the case if you play a lot of lefties in Progressive/Busch stadiums-type). In 25% of lefty piching, he's a bust. So his value really depends on your opponents, but a very nice buy against teams that go crazy with lefties.

As for Barton, he combines two features that are not adequately assessed even by experienced managers, at least in my opinion. First, he has very nice defense at first base. Right, defense is not very important at first base, but it's still not dhing, and I feel people discard too easily the value of good defense at first base. Second, he has good onbase AND low total base, and strat players seem to always to underestimate the value of such players.

To RBrown,

Pitching-wise, Nova appears as one of the most overvalued starter. Compare his card with Cobb, almost the same stats, but 1M more expensive. Nova's S7 cannot justify the gap, especially considering that you can have relievers at less than 2M with cards as good as Nova. Mid-4-5M *SP with high slugging (ex. Lohse, Santana, Griffin, etc) don't look too good on my ratings too.

On the other hand, if I compare my price structure to SOM, it seems pretty obvious to me that the most expensive pitchers, especially Kershaw and Harvey, are even worth more than their pricetag. If you can get 320 innings out of quality (not-fatigued) Kershaw is probably worth closer to 12M.

To Valen and others, I won't post my formulas for now, not in this thread anyway. But I should not have said I took everything on the card: bunting and hit-and-run ratings were not taking in consideration, so are the pitchers' hitting and running ability. I guess I should add I didn't put in my ratings the ability of players to play mutliple positions.

Marc, some good analysis there, particularly on Dozier. For the record I don't ignore out-types entirely, just most of them. You correctly identified GBA's as something that managers, including myself, can and should make some accounting for. But to the extent all of our time is limited in prepping for a draft or analyzing a set, even GBA's are not something that you should waste (too much) time fretting over. Very significant for lineup order however.

But more broadly if the point of these threads is to develop "best practices" for newbies I think keeping it simple and learning how to count non-outs on offense and defense is more than 9/10ths of the initial battle.

if you were committed to bad play unbalanced platoons but let the 9L face righties etc....Barreto as ss vs left and Enrique Hernandez or Tim Anderson vs righties....bad D little offense....

http://365.strat-o-matic.com/player/92834/2017/1/2017
12- SI* 1-13
gb(3b)A 14-20
only hit

http://365.strat-o-matic.com/player/91963/2017/1/2017