The Secret Formula: Theory in Action: Update - CHAMPS!

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carumba10

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Re: The Secret Formula: Theory in Action

PostMon Nov 04, 2013 2:42 pm

scumby wrote:
carumba10 wrote:Obviously as a n00b I am missing something here. I don't understand how you pick the ballpark after the draft. I thought the park had to be picked before proceeding to "join a league"


you don't. The moral of the story is it may be a good strategy to pick a neutral ballpark and then build your team from the waiver wire and free agent pool. (assuming a 12 team league)


Alright. This was the earlier quote that caused my confusion ..


So I don't pick Progressive and load up on lefties, I load up on lefties and pick Progressive. The distinction being that I expect my team of lefties to play nearly equally well in AT&T
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J-Pav

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Re: The Secret Formula: Theory in Action

PostMon Nov 04, 2013 2:52 pm

Yes, this was just to explain my thinking before submitting the autodraft. Once the league is drafted, you play in the park you selected.

My point is that I usually go after guys who can play anywhere, not just guys who benefit from big LH HR splits. So if I have Progressive and the three guys in my division have AT&T, I'm not completely hamstrung on the road. This is why I usually avoid guys like Garrett Jones.

Does that make more sense?
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rowdy brown

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Re: The Secret Formula: Theory in Action

PostMon Nov 04, 2013 6:49 pm

The problem with the strategy of "high-scoring team in a pitcher's park" (I've thought about it) is that the hitters cost extra for being good hitters who do not rely on BP singles and HRs. Don't they? Is it not the case that BP singles and homers come cheaper than regular singles and homers?
SOM online owner name: slingsby
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J-Pav

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Re: The Secret Formula: Theory in Action

PostMon Nov 04, 2013 7:36 pm

I really don't know. I've never broken things down to that extent. But if that's the case, then yes, I guess I just pay up to get the OPS I need.
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Knerrpool

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Re: The Secret Formula: Theory in Action

PostMon Nov 04, 2013 9:42 pm

rowdy brown wrote:The problem with the strategy of "high-scoring team in a pitcher's park" (I've thought about it) is that the hitters cost extra for being good hitters who do not rely on BP singles and HRs. Don't they?


Absolutely, they do. That is all part of "the game". And, the allure of a slanted park is that, all things considered, it is cheaper to find guys to fit - the tradeoff is they don't perform in opposite parks.
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visick

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Re: The Secret Formula: Theory in Action

PostTue Nov 05, 2013 8:54 am

"the tradeoff is they don't perform in opposite parks."

You do play 81 games in your HOME park
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geekor

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Re: The Secret Formula: Theory in Action

PostTue Nov 05, 2013 11:51 am

rowdy brown wrote:The problem with the strategy of "high-scoring team in a pitcher's park" (I've thought about it) is that the hitters cost extra for being good hitters who do not rely on BP singles and HRs. Don't they? Is it not the case that BP singles and homers come cheaper than regular singles and homers?


Ummm... no they don't.

Cards are priced off of a 10-10-9-9 (or maybe all 10's but I think it is 9-9 for HR) park. the goal then is to find guys, who gain value based off that pricing model.

So for instance, pitchers will take a beating in that pricing if they have a lot of BP HR's, but if you're playing in PNC, you are gaining value for HR's that will almost never be hit. Same with hitter, those guys with 8 BP HR's are undervalued a bit for a neutral park, place them in Coors and now you are gaining some value.

I've won most of the time by using a high scoring team in a pitchers park, that's kinda the thing I tend to do. It's very possible to do it, just pay attention to hits, OB and TB, and don't pay attention to the BP numbers as they are useless.
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Jerlins

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Re: The Secret Formula: Theory in Action

PostWed Nov 06, 2013 9:54 pm

I have had more success with high scoring team in a pitchers park as well, putting more emphasis on BA over OBP, a few natural HR hitters, few gba's on the cards, all of which play relatively solid defense. It normally cost me $58 to $60 spent on hitting. You just have to find the diamond in the rough type pitchers. Three, maybe four years ago, Jamie Moyer had a card that priced out somewhere between .80 to 1.2 and used him four or five times, and to my recollection, won 20 games on at least three of those teams, and in all cases consistently outperformed my $2 and $3 SP's and 75% of the league as a whole.

Playing against a team with a heavy slant stadium with hitters built for that stadium is relatively inexpensive to compete against. Normally, one can find a .50 SP or two that can totally dominate a team. Again, a couple of years ago, one of the Ortiz (Ramon maybe) was a 9R and he completely dominated a team in my division with an ERA of under 1.00, with 6 or 7 wins (wish we still had the old boards because I posted these stats).

I've always enjoyed the annual "The Secret Formula" post. One year, 5 or 6 of us were guest writers with our own strategies, and the back and forth banter throughout was fun. I miss all strategy forums that used to be posted on the boards. As a person who had never played the board game, lots of folks (most still with us in this community) helped me become a better player. I can't recall the name, but I remember someone for a few years straight, posting SOM $ values vs real $ values (example- Player A was a $3.5 SOM priced player but valued out at $4.75). That was like my bible for my early teams.

We need more of these posts to continue to grow the community and keep folks interested.
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Palmtana

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Re: The Secret Formula: Theory in Action

PostWed Nov 06, 2013 10:19 pm

Jerlins wrote:I can't recall the name, but I remember someone for a few years straight, posting SOM $ values vs real $ values (example- Player A was a $3.5 SOM priced player but valued out at $4.75).


That would be luckyman/Marcus Wilby. Here is some of his work from 2005.
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rowdy brown

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Re: The Secret Formula: Theory in Action

PostThu Nov 07, 2013 1:01 pm

geekor wrote:
rowdy brown wrote:The problem with the strategy of "high-scoring team in a pitcher's park" (I've thought about it) is that the hitters cost extra for being good hitters who do not rely on BP singles and HRs. Don't they? Is it not the case that BP singles and homers come cheaper than regular singles and homers?


Ummm... no they don't.

Cards are priced off of a 10-10-9-9 (or maybe all 10's but I think it is 9-9 for HR) park. the goal then is to find guys, who gain value based off that pricing model.

So for instance, pitchers will take a beating in that pricing if they have a lot of BP HR's, but if you're playing in PNC, you are gaining value for HR's that will almost never be hit. Same with hitter, those guys with 8 BP HR's are undervalued a bit for a neutral park, place them in Coors and now you are gaining some value.

I've won most of the time by using a high scoring team in a pitchers park, that's kinda the thing I tend to do. It's very possible to do it, just pay attention to hits, OB and TB, and don't pay attention to the BP numbers as they are useless.


Actually, your follow-up agrees with what I suggested was true. If hitters are priced for a 10-10-9-9 park, BP homers will count as 45% homer, 55% out, whereas regular homers count as 100% homers. The BP homers are half price. So building a team that hits well in PNC means spending more to achieve the same team-wide OPS.
SOM online owner name: slingsby
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