The Secret Formula: Theory in Action: Update - CHAMPS!

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STEVE F

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Re: The Secret Formula: Theory in Action: Update - CHAMPS!

PostThu Jan 23, 2014 5:03 pm

J-Pav wrote:Steve,

Congratulations!!

Nicely done :D


Thanks J, and a tip of my cap to the "secret formula". Although I may have slightly deviated a couple of the salary spots, I think one of the lessons learned was to put the money into the innings that get used. The 4 starters plus Atchison combined to pitch 88% of the staff innings.
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Radagast Brown

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Re: The Secret Formula: Theory in Action: Update - CHAMPS!

PostSat Feb 01, 2014 11:30 pm

Congratulations on the championship Steve F. I remember reading this thread (or it's precursor) years ago.
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danno

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Re: The Secret Formula: Theory in Action: Update - CHAMPS!

PostThu Jan 05, 2017 6:06 pm

Totally Disagree:

Winning in SOM 365 has nothing to do with baseball knowledge. Three basic factors determine each season's outcome:

1. Chance.
2. Total number of SOM 365 leagues played.
3. Maintaining the value of your team.

Let me go over each factor:

1 / 2: Chance and Total Number of Leagues Played. The winning teams are assigned to those who have invested hundreds and thousands of dollars into SOM 365. Every so often, a "newbie" will get a winning team to keep SOM from being sued. If you check who wins the most are the guys who play the most. Skill has nothing to do with it. For example:

If you had the great baseball management / organization skills, it shouldn't matter how many games / leagues that you play. If we sample about 20 leagues played, the "expert" should have at least a .500 winning average or better. That is not the case. If you check each league division winner, they are usually guys who have played 100 or more seasons.

3. Maintaining the Value of Your Team: Once your team is drafted, if you make any roster changes that lowers the worth of your team, your chances of winning are significantly reduced. In fact, unless you have a commanding lead in your respective division, you can't make any roster changes without it making things worse. Check those who win. They NEVER make any roster changes unless they have a commanding lead. Now, let's use some common sense.

Let's go back to the real baseball expert. If a manager see's a player with 100 or more AB struggling and trades that player away for another player, more often than not the new player will not perform anywhere near their statistical ability. The chances of this happening in real life are not likely. SOM explains away this phenomenon stating that in essence you are playing one all star team against another therefore the stats are depressed. That's not true and J-PAV proves it because most of his players are not super stars. There are hidden gems within the league and you have to know how to hunt them out, but I say again, for the most part, it just doesn't matter. What matters is being lucky enough to draw a team that will win your division and you increase your chances doing so by investing many dollars into SOM 365. Winning is based on a computer bias and has NOTHING to do with skill.

Do you need more proof? Then consider the following.

Computer programs follow a pattern. If you know how to identify the pattern they shine like pearls. The SOM 365 pattern is EXTREMELY obvious. Once a team moves into first place, they stay there for the rest of the season. Whatever is your relative position (I.E., 1st, 2nd, 3rd, etc.), you are going to pretty much maintain that position for the entire season. Yes, you will move up or down a game or two but eventually you will go back to your assigned (computer) position.

More Proof? For you veteran players, how many times have you seen a team come from 5 or so games behind and win their division? How about almost NEVER. Again, once the season starts, your team is assigned a relative position and there is NOTHING that you can do to move it upward / winning, out of this position.

More Proof? How many times have you seen a player hit 2HR for a losing game? It happens all of the time. There are more players hitting 2HR for a losing game than a winning game. That's part of the pattern that I am telling you about. This is a way to prop up stats for players, give you incentive to continue playing your losing team, without changing the relative position of the team upwards or winning.

The key to winning in SOM 365 is to play many leagues and not to change your team or lower the value of your team once the season begins.

FYI. Once you fall about 5 games or more below .500, it's over. You are not going to recoup those games. I have never seen anybody climb from playing below .500 and win their division. In some leagues, EVERY team is playing below .500 except for the division leader. That does not count because the entire league has the same computer bias. I'm talking about being in a normal league. If you fall below .500 ball, it's over with.

FYI. I had a telephone conversation with SOM reps about these things. The Rep told me that one of the most important factors was stadium selection. I.E., matching your players to the stadium. That advice is a bunch of b.s. Why? Because you choose your stadium BEFORE the draft process is complete. You can spend all day analyzing the best players for your selected stadium and then the draft will erase your carefully select team. If you do manage to draft / trade players for your stadium, more often than not they will not perform accordingly. I.E., let me give you a great example:

Most SOM 365 players favor RH hitters. Therefore, most of the pitching and hitting favor RH. I'm looking for a common weak spot so I decide to favor a LH hitting team and using a stadium that favors LH hitting. Because nobody wants LH players, I was able to draft / trade for some of the best players in baseball. The entire team under performed. They did not even come close to performing according to their stats. In fact, despite the fact that I had a LH hitters ball park with several LH sluggers, my team lost MORE home games than road games! Again, for the most part, the stadium has little to nothing to do with your team performance. That's just another distractor.

Here's another great example:

I experimented with two teams in different leagues. With one team, I traded away every pitcher and used that money to buy the best hitting in Free Agency. On another team, I did just the opposite. I traded away all of my hitting to collect funds to buy the best pitching in Free Agency. As soon as I did this BOTH OF MY TEAMS WON SIX GAMES STRAIGHT then someone outside of the league complained. SOM confiscated my teams without reimbursement. They claimed that I was "dumping" when that is obviously not true. I built up both teams and they both won six games straight in different leagues!

Another example: Early in one season, I had a team in first place by about five games. I had one key player that had over 100 AB and was terribly under performing. He was a .300 hitter batting about .200. Statistically, it was going to be near impossible for him to perform anywhere near his actual stats so I traded him for another player in Free Agency. The new big buck player did not perform either and as soon as I made that trade with FA, thereby losing value of my team and breaking the SOM winning formula for that team, they immediately nose dived out of first and the team end up finishing last. If I had not tried to improve my team and just left it alone, chances are, I would have won first place.

Example: I had a team that was a shoe in for winning the Wild Card. I was about 8 games ahead of any team in my league. There were about 24 games left in the season. I lost 22 of 24 games including a 12 game losing streak. I plunged from 2nd place to last. SOM also injured four of my top starting position players. Let me make this perfectly clear. I'm not contradicting my previous claim of no one being able to go on a WINNING streak pushing themselves into fist place. The other players maintained their relative W/L and I LOST my way out of winning the wild card.

Last Example: As you know, you can have SOM draft a team for you by selecting the dollar ratio that you want to spend on pitching v hitting. If you use this draft method over and over again, you will see some of the same players keep popping up. That's a FOOT STOMPER! BIG CLUE! I checked the guys who have played 1000+ leagues and appears as if they use this method.

In Summary: The best way to win in SOM 365 is to play in many leagues and hope that you get assigned (by random) a winning team. Then do not change your team. If you devalue your team in any manner, I promise you, you will not win. Again, I want to emphasize, that the only people who can get away with devaluing their team have their division mathematically locked up. As you can see, I had a commanding lead and lost 22 of 24 games. The other players said they have never seen anything like this before and some agreed that the league is fixed.

Disclaimer: I am relatively new at SOM 365. I have been playing SOM since 1966. I am a former professional baseball player. I know computer programming and have a B.S. in Aero Engineering. I kind of know what I'm talking about but my SOM 365 record is dismal. I have played in about 12 leagues and have never finished better than 3rd. I'm currently playing two new leagues and plan on not touching either team. Both have been drafted and are outstanding teams. I'm sorry to tell J-PAV that my drafting system is better than his. I seldom do not get players that I bid for.

I'm sorry to say that baseball knowledge has NOTHING to do with winning here. It's more of a computer circle jerk. Basically you are giving SOM $20 per league for them to play your team on autopilot. It's not interactive. You just sit and watch. There's no skill or fun in doing that.
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keyzick

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Re: The Secret Formula: Theory in Action: Update - CHAMPS!

PostFri Jan 06, 2017 7:34 am

This guy is a complete moron. You have no clue what you're talking about, searching for conspiracy in your own failings...sad. Why would you continue to purchase teams, or even visit these boards? And noting your "qualifications"?? Hahaha!! You've obviously changed your manager name, because that same rant was posted earlier this year, yet you only have 3 posts tagged to your ID. Stop trolling SOM and go back posting on yahoo comments.
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sociophil

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Re: The Secret Formula: Theory in Action: Update - CHAMPS!

PostFri Jan 06, 2017 12:13 pm

Hey Danno, Thanks for resurrecting this thread! Great stuff in here! Too bad you haven't digested and applied it, I think you'd benefit from sum learnifying.
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