The Secret Formula: Theory in Action: Update - CHAMPS!

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mbertolli

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Re: The Secret Formula: Theory in Action

PostSun Oct 27, 2013 12:42 pm

When you figure the auto draft out, please let me in. In 10+ years of playing this game I have rarely done better than having the 1st, 2nd or 3rd waiver pick.
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STEVE F

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Re: The Secret Formula: Theory in Action

PostSun Oct 27, 2013 12:52 pm

after my first three leagues, I had given up on listing Moss. In my latest league (a PC league) he went undrafted, and I had the first waiver pick. I don't think he's the be all end all either, but I thought It'd be fun to have him once :)
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milleram

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Re: The Secret Formula: Theory in Action

PostMon Oct 28, 2013 9:46 pm

I just started online this year, and only played 2012 teams (a bunch of them)--so not sure about other years.

I read the "secret formula" strategy posts and adhered to it for my first half-dozen teams--I got a bunch of roughly .500 teams.

The 50-20-10 formula doesn't work for me. (at least for 2012)

Seems a bit cheaper starting works better for me whether a pitchers or hitters park--now I spend about 24-27 on pitching (depending on the park) and as little as 15 on the entire staff in Coors--Usually though it is a 53 to 56 - 17 to 14 - 10 formula for me now--after I went to that my average team is up about 5 wins a season.

I have seen several teams that spend more than 30M on pitching have success too--seems you need to go up or down, but not at 20M on starting to me.
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J-Pav

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Re: The Secret Formula: Theory in Action

PostTue Oct 29, 2013 12:00 am

Randall,

Just remember, there are no absolutes. Any of the high pct winning vets can tell you they miss their share of playoffs and endure some fairly lousy teams.

One of the frustrations of the game is that you can do everything absolutely right and still finish 72-90. If you replayed the same season, you might end up 90-72 and make the playoffs with the exact same team, but you'll never know it.

Also know, and this goes back to the beginning, that the phrase "The Secret Formula" is intended to be tongue in cheek. Having said that, I've added, subtracted, divided and multiplied a lot of things on a lot of teams and I believe that success leaves clues.

I play about a team a week and I do things a lot of different ways out of curiosity with the game. But it's weird how when I look back on my Championship teams how often they ended up "Formula-ish", sometimes without any express intention of setting out to do it that way.

It's okay to follow your own path - it's also okay to be aware of what the other teams around you are doing . I think if you spend your time trying to master the $15 mil starting staff in Coors, you might really find yourself swimming against a strong current. But if it works for you and it's fun, go with it. Either way - GL!
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J-Pav

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Re: The Secret Formula: Theory in Action

PostTue Oct 29, 2013 12:22 am

Randall,

Also, I played a $15 mil Coors staff myself ( http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/team/1108819 ), even though I should have known better (Coors needs the higher dollar staff, not the lower one). I was probably off on some wacky tangent. Anyway, I got the same result as you: .500

To anyone that cares, I want to point out that my first 14 teams of 2012 were completely embarrassing. 10 missed playoffs, three lost finals and one lost semi-final, with only two of those 14 teams winning 90 games or more.

Over my next 14 teams I won 15 credits, six rings, three lost finals and five missed playoffs (barely). Now I'm a genius. But I never would have been if I didn't endure probably my worst start in SOM Online in ten years. The point is, stick it out, learn from every team, learn from every mistake and eventually you'll find your way. :D
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milleram

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Re: The Secret Formula: Theory in Action

PostTue Oct 29, 2013 1:12 am

Here's my 15M Coors team.

http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/team/1111043

I actually dropped Buckholz for Arietta and Leake about 40 games in--seemed the cheaper they were the better.
Dropped Garcia late (for two PH) because I didn't need a LH starter the rest of the way.

Edit 10/29--there is only 11 of my initial picks on this team--I missed Cano, Desmond (picked up Desmond in a trade) Ortiz, Beltran. I drafted 5 * Starters--mostly the cheaper ones. I did get my relievers----

I picked up Hamilton and Encarnacion in waivers, and got Pedroia instead of Cano in the initial draft--

I missed 2,3,6,7,10 picks--Beltre was my #1 pick, 2 Desmond, 3 Cano, 4 Rosario, 5 Avilan, 6 Beltran, 7 Ortiz, 8 Holliday, 9 Granderson, and 10 Arroyo

My draft plans were good defense up the middle and at 3rd with as much power as possible, and cheap starting pitchers that give up few BP HR--I stuck to it as much as I could after the initial draft. Middlebrooks was the last player I picked up, I had no intention of platooning Beltre--that just worked out after I missed my Starting Pitchers in the Draft
Last edited by milleram on Tue Oct 29, 2013 8:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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J-Pav

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Re: The Secret Formula: Theory in Action

PostTue Oct 29, 2013 1:22 pm

Moving back in the original direction, does anyone want to post their own autodraft, comment further on mine or comment on the autodraft in general?
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rowdy brown

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Re: The Secret Formula: Theory in Action

PostTue Oct 29, 2013 2:20 pm

J-Pav wrote:The question I want to ask the community is this: I missed six of my top ten picks in the autodraft. Was this an unfortunate autodraft poorly constructed, or did the wily veteran use guile and creativity to game the autodraft to get exactly what he wanted?


I'll guess that "getting exactly what you want" means getting all ten of your first ten picks.

Is the first waiver pick worth missing six of your first ten?
SOM online owner name: slingsby
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STEVE F

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Re: The Secret Formula: Theory in Action

PostTue Oct 29, 2013 2:27 pm

1. Interesting that you put all your hitters first. I can see why because of the "Progressive factor". You need the lefty bats and there are only so many in this set. The only time I did a similiar card was with Coors.

2. It seems you didn't really give a hoot who your starting pitchers were, and valued LOOGY's like Choate and Miller rather highly.

3. I totally agree that you can miss your top 3 picks and still put together a good team (in a 12 team league, 24 teams you really need to hit most of your picks)

Draft for Coors $80M, no DH
1.Desmond, Ian (SS) - 5.98M
2.Cabrera, Miguel (3B,1B) - 10.08M
3.Hamilton, Josh (CF,LF,RF) - 8.14M
4.Jackson, Austin (CF) - 9.28M
5.Pujols, Albert (1B,3B) - 7.44M
6.Balfour, Grant (P) - 4.78M
7.Belisario, Ronald (P) - 3.23M
8.Beltran, Carlos (RF,CF) - 4.38M
9.Walker, Neil (2B) - 3.73M
10.Ross, David (C) - 5.40M
11.Avilan, Luis (P) - 3.09M
12.Fiers, Mike (P) - 2.78M
13.Billingsley, Chad (P) - 2.35M
14.Kinsler, Ian (2B,3B) - 1.40M
15.Scribner, Evan (P) - 1.00M
16.Floyd, Gavin (P) - .99M
17.Miller, Andrew (P) - .58M
18.Quintana, Jose (P) - 1.21M
19.Gomes, Yan (1B,3B,C,LF) - .63M
20.Lannan, John (P) - .89M
21.Ibanez, Raul (LF,RF) - .50M
22.Young, Delmon (LF) - .50M
23.Weeks, Rickie (2B) - .50M
24.Johnson, Elliot (SS,2B,3B,LF) - .54M
25.Eppley, Cody (P) - .50M


I got my first 7 picks, which I was amazed by! missed 8 9 11 17 21 23 25

Went cheap at 2b platoon with Quintanilla and upgraded Jackson to Trout (only after he sat there so long I couldn't stand it)
http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/team/1108500
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J-Pav

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Re: The Secret Formula: Theory in Action

PostTue Oct 29, 2013 4:24 pm

http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/team/1103604

I went with a McCutchen-Trout-Cabrera concept team early on. Who would think you could ever get those three on one team!? Scored 855 runs. That's 100 more than necessary. Low dollar pitching gave up 836 (in Turner, even). That's about 200 too many. It's pretty hard to win anything doing that. :idea: So I stopped!

Thx for posting your draft. Getting your first seven must've been pretty surprising, but it's nice when it works out like that. Unfortunately only one net run isn't going to get things done, as I found out as well.

This brings things back to the draft.

Rowdy,

Getting exactly what you want probably means getting all 25 picks! What do you think is the answer to your question,
"Is the first waiver pick worth missing six of your first ten?"

Or anybody else as well...
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