Adventures in Team Building

Very interesting. If I recall (I read this yesterday - and it's not been a very restful weekend - sick kids), you used all four-man rotations. This year I used all 5-man staffs. I had some early success with this, and kept playing that way. It also seemed that other teams in my leagues performed well doing so.
Maybe it was just anecdotal?

Petco Championship Team

Theory: get high value non * sp with cheap "value" guys in the pen. Spend the $ on hitting.

http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/team/803296

Carlos and Lance,

Thx for posting -

Even though I didn't do The Secret Formula post this year, I still track the stats from over 20+ Championship teams I've played against. Over 80+% of the time, Champs teams use a four man rotation. It has trended this way for awhile now, and so I don't usually try to swim against the tide. This of course creates opportunity for the manager who's willing to put in a little extra homework.

I would hazard a guess to say that the single most difficult way to win a ring, at least in 2011, is with a five man rotation in Petco. So, way to go Lance! The second hardest way is simply to just play in Petco at all.

Several years back, if you remember, Bernie hosted a contest to see if we could figure out the five ballparks most likely to win a championship. The parks were the ones with the big left or right HR slants, followed by the overall big hitters parks. Whatever the Petco equivalent was back then (RFK, I think?) came in dead last. Shortly thereafter, the ballpark slants lost their advantage and we went several seasons where the ballpark just didn't matter that much. Now we seem to have reverted back some.

I've tried just about everything else in 2011, so I'm giving Petco one more go:

http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/team/818504

J

As we wind down the 2011 season set and start gearing up for 2012, I thought I'd open up a post dedicated to reviewing our experimental teams. Let's see who had The Most Interesting Team of 2011.

My first offering is a two for one I call The Alpha & The Omega.

http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/team/803747

Theory: Exploit the big hitter's park (US Cellular) to win the ring because it's too damn hard to win in Petco (see below).
Result: CHAMPS (102-60)
What's interesting: 237 net runs (pythag record of 106-56). In 40 some odd leagues I've been in, no one else has broken 200 net runs ($80 mil standard - no theme leagues). If someone has broken 200, please post it here, I'd love to see it. This team was first in OPS and first in stolen bases. I also gave up more stolen bases (174) than I got (160) and committed over 100 errors.

http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/team/379948

Theory: Exploit net productive outs to win the ring.
Result: DFL (62-100)
What's interesting: I thought I had discovered the wheel when I set out to draft this team. I had been reading an article in Baseball Think Factory or Baseball Musings that discussed the benefits of productive outs: ie, pitchers who get strike outs and double plays combined with hitters who do not strike out and do not hit into double plays. I think I got every single player I wanted in the autodraft. Now we know why.

In hindsight, this was still a decent team (I think). The fly in the ointment was choosing Petco. This might have been a completely different story if I had chosen a neutral ballpark or maybe a baserunner friendly park like Kauffman. It took me a dozen teams before I realized that the 2011 set was highly skewed to big hitter's parks, unlike the last several years where the ballpark tilts were basically irrelevant.

Has anybody won a ring in Petco?

Looks like your Alpha team was very lucky in avoiding injuries.

Power did seem to be a little easier to come by in this set. This team hit 322 home runs which is the most I've hit in a standard 12/$80M league.

http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/team/806071

And this one hit 335 in a $100M

http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/team/814310

You dropped Verlander in a $100 mil league??

http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/team/810424

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

I spent some time considering the 4 vs 5 man rotation thing today. I needed a sample for a frame of reference, so I took my last $80 mil no DH league and computed the starting pitcher salaries over the first 20 games for all 12 teams. I equalized the *SPs by taking 80% of their salary to compare evenly with the non-*SPs (ie, a $5 *SP was considered a $4 SP). Six teams used a 4 man rotation, four used a 5 man rotation and two others mixed 2 *SPs with other non-*SPs. The finals are still ongoing, but FWIW, in this example three playoff teams used the 4 man rotation and the other used the hybrid theory.

Here are the average SP salaries (all adjusted to non-star SP status) for each of the first 20 games of the season:

1. 5.21
2. 4.12
3. 3.72
4. 2.43
5. 4.86
6. 4.26
7. 3.42
8. 2.38
9. 4.89
10. 4.06
11. 3.85
12. 2.19
13. 4.95
14. 4.32
15. 3.65
16. 2.43
17. 4.61
18. 4.04
19. 3.97
20. 2.48

You can see how the scale slides, accommodating the #1 starter for the 4 man rotation pitching on the fifth day, the #2 guy pitching the sixth game and so on. The general rhythm is a $5, 4, 4, 2 mix for every four games. If you average that out, you find that the avg SP salary is routinely more or less $3.75 for any given game. Let's assume for the moment that all pitchers are perfectly priced. If every day your opposing pitcher is $3.75, how much do you need to spend to have a decided advantage going into the game?

This is where, in my opinion, I find the 5 man rotation harder to pull off. In a $6,5,4,3,2 rotation, the $3 and $2 guys pitch a combined 64 games against an average $3.75 guy, where they are at a decided disadvantage, and the $4 guy is basically 50/50. And don't forget, the top dollar *SPs are spread out all throughout the league, so you're lucky when your opponent is only a $3.75 guy! The five $4 guy rotation probably gives you the most bang for your buck, but there's a lot of competition at that price in the autodraft, so you have to plan accordingly if you go that route (there are overall only 18 non-*SPs priced between $3.52 and $5.45).

For the sake of argument I assumed all things were equal, which of course, they're not. First, there's the autodraft. Also, Brian Duensing can whoop my Kershaw led Progressive team (esp if I have lots of lefty batters) on any given day too. This is where the lineup configurations, the ballparks, the defense ratings, the offensive philosophy and the team speed all add multi-dimensional layers to the puzzle. Lots to consider.

In the end, I try and go with what's been proven to work. Maybe the 2012 season will see the return of the $10 starting rotation...

Power did seem to be a little easier to come by in this set. This team hit 322 home runs which is the most I've hit in a standard 12/$80M league.

http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/team/806071

And this one hit 335 in a $100M

http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/team/814310

you beat me in that crazy finals in that $80M. Here is my current power team:
http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/team/816554 ... and yes, my pitching is pretty bad. but i've had worse.

Wow, you are averaging 2.34 HR per game. That is a lot. You could almost make a run at 400.

You dropped Verlander in a $100 mil league??

http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/team/810424

I traded him for Cain. Cain significantly outperformed him (for me, anyway).

Ah, I forgot trades also show up as drops. Makes more sense that way!