What am I doing wrong????

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keyzick

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Re: What am I doing wrong????

PostSat Jan 15, 2022 4:34 pm

TomSawyer wrote:I agree- its luck. I have tried every strategy. I consistently lose. This is as opposed to real life, where I played 11 years in a 28 man league, and averaged 97 wins. I have played Star tournaments, too - they are luck, also. Its whoever is hot with the die.


Pretty much proves it's NOT luck, otherwise you wouldn't always lose. Your strategy is obviously off, because there are people who consistently win.
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teamnasty

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Re: What am I doing wrong????

PostSat Jan 15, 2022 5:00 pm

I'll note that Aaron's team is now 57-51, which demonstrates that making a panicked judgment that you're doing "something wrong" in building a team after a small sample-sized 11-16 start is, itself, incorrect.
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chris.sied@yahoo.com

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Re: What am I doing wrong????

PostWed Jan 19, 2022 3:09 pm

Aaron Ardsma wrote:Chris,

What you say makes sense. To a degree. But here I am nearly halfway through a season, and Glavine's ERA is hovering around 5.00, more than twice the real-life number. I'm sorry, but even when ballparks and righty-lefty balances are taken into account, that just ain't right.

So I'm sticking with yep, it's BS, mostly luck. And counting on things to truly even out over the course of a season. If they do not, then I will know the product is lousy.


Sorry I took so long to respond. First vacation in 2 years and strat was not heavy on my mind.

So, I see Glavine's ERA is now down to 4.22. That is not too far off what I would expect. A couple things to remember. In strat as opposed to "real" baseball, he is playing against the 14 best players on the team all the time. No minor leaguers up for a week or two while someone rests, no September call ups when the team is out of contention. And in reality, its against the 9 best with an occasional injury substitution thrown in. Nobody gives their players off days for rest (or really, nobody should) so he is pitching against the best day in and day out. Second, the other team has strategy too. So, for example, Glavine is getting crushed by lefties (as one might expect based on his balance) and other good managers in 365 will see that balance rating and throw extra lefties in the lineup to take advantage of it. Moyer on your team has somehow managed to keep lefties below .200 despite having the exact same balance rating. Thats just how the dice roll. The fact that every pitcher on your team has a higher ERA than real life (save for Jeff Shaw who is having a magical season especially given his dice roll distribution) should suggest that real life ERA is a really poor predictor of how things will go in the online game.

In real life baseball, the odds say you send up righties against lefties, and vice versa on the other side because traditionally that's what gets you the best results, and managers are always going to go with the most likely thing (or they should at least). In strat, I already know that I have an advantage with lefties against Glavine, so, if possible, I am going to find the lefties on my team that give me a better matchup against the lefty Glavine. Thats the part of the game that comes with experience and why some managers consistently win and others consistently lose.

And finally...OF COURSE ITS LUCK! Its a dice game. By definition its luck. The strategy here is not to know what is going to happen based on real life stats, but to put the odds in your favor so that the randomness that comes with dice rolls skews ever so slightly in your favor. But to think that because Glavine cant match his real life ERA in this game makes it all BS is not really understanding the mechanics of the game at all. If that was all it took, then there would be 1 perfect team under each salary cap where you have simply maximized real life stats and whoever drafted that team would win.

If what you want is to see the season replicated, buy the computer version of the game, set it for replay mode so that each pitcher faces all the exact same lineups he faced during the regular season, and replay to your heart's content. I think that sounds like a really boring way to utilize the product and I much prefer using my brain to deconstruct the card chances and get players to do better than their stats suggest they should based on how I use them.
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toronto50

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Re: What am I doing wrong????

PostThu Jan 20, 2022 12:53 pm

Glavine used to face pitchers as well

40 SOM SP* starts x 4 (probably3 ) abs vs pitchers or a usually high ops dh
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freeman

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Re: What am I doing wrong????

PostThu Jan 20, 2022 4:49 pm

One thing I would say about luck: it's a 162 game season. So randomness should even out a great deal over that long of a period. And obviously some managers are good at developing teams that are resistant to the vicissitudes of the dice...

Play-offs being a smaller sample size are a different story...

But it's not just dice rolls. It's the distribution of parks and team make-up that also introduces randomness. Some of that dependent on the skill level of managers but some of it just different style teams. Some of that you can scheme against...some of it you cant.
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gillranjeett

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Re: What am I doing wrong????

PostFri Jan 28, 2022 6:40 am

I'm sticking with yep, it's BS, mostly luck. And counting on things to truly even out over the course of a season. If they do not, then I will know the product is lousy.

mx player for pc
mxplayer
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TomSawyer

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Re: What am I doing wrong????

PostSat Jan 29, 2022 3:41 pm

I agree, its luck- or guys know the programmers, and get cheat codes. It possibly could be Russian interference.

Among the guys who are consistent winners, I don't see any consistent themes. No philosophy seems to be better than others. And since we cannot play the actual games, how much influence does the manager have? If the salary is the effective rating of quality, we all spend close enough to be more competitive. I've never looked at a 365 team and thought it was obvious they should lose.

However, the impression that some guys win a lot may be wrong. I have seen guys who have won hundreds of championships, but are under .500 as a whole.

I have always thought that lefty starters are compromised in Strat. Andy Petite used to give up under 10 homers a year. Try getting less than 30 out of him in a league.

But as far as $20 goes, where else do you get two months of fun? And hey- we MIGHT win.
I just wish we could play the games head to head, online.
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Bballexec

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Re: What am I doing wrong????

PostSat Jan 29, 2022 3:59 pm

Regression to the Mean is a bitch. Real baseball maybe more random than we think.

Just saw the article below in the last week. I think it says you need 67 games for luck and talent to equalize in baseball. This is a greater number than in other sports. If that is true having the 5% penalty end at 41 games is kind of annoying. You still don't have a good feel for your team at that point.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ho ... y-results/

Dave C in SNC (Bballexec)
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Eddie E

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Re: What am I doing wrong????

PostSat Jan 29, 2022 8:47 pm

Things dont even normalize in 162 games. We have all seen the same card produce drastically different results even in the same stadium. There is such a great amount of randomness in dice rolls that there IS a lot of luck. However, our job is to put together a team that has the best chance of getting good results. The four best teams in a league may not always win but they usually win more times than not because they put together enough really good cards that the odds would be forever in their favor. Or something like that.
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DERRICKSANSON

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Re: What am I doing wrong????

PostSun Jan 30, 2022 10:43 am

Haha. This is comedy. It’s a game based on math. Study the math and you will win more games.
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