Are Injuries Really Random?

Discuss different strategies for any of our player sets

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paul8210

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Re: Are Injuries Really Random?

PostSun May 24, 2020 12:37 pm

"assume the nightly number generator is a defined string of rolls out to infinity, but each game uses the same string at the start of a game. If I bat Freese in the same spot, there’s then a likelihood he’ll actually get the same rolls in each game (up to a point of course) across separate leagues, if you’re following what I’m saying."


I support this viewpoint. Defining a string of rolls used by each game allows games to be processed faster by the server. Software developers are all about fast response time when they design. For a typical league it only takes about three minutes for all the games in that league to be played in a single evening. Using pre-defined strings and leveraging that efficiency is a tenet of good software development.
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J-Pav

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Re: Are Injuries Really Random?

PostSun May 24, 2020 1:41 pm

Although the number string was not listed in the play by play for a long time in the past, it’s easy to see now that the posted numbers don’t correlate that way (a repeating string). I did a quick fly-by over my boxscores and found no patterns.

I think Coyote hit it on the head with the birthday thing.

“In probability theory, the birthday problem or birthday paradox concerns the probability that, in a set of n randomly chosen people, some pair of them will have the same birthday. By the pigeonhole principle, the probability reaches 100% when the number of people reaches 367 (since there are only 366 possible birthdays, including February 29). However, 99.9% probability is reached with just 70 people, and 50% probability with 23 people. These conclusions are based on the assumption that each day of the year (excluding February 29) is equally probable for a birthday.“

For the love of Pete, don’t wiki something called “Cheryl’s Birthday”. Your brain will literally explode.
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J-Pav

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Re: Are Injuries Really Random?

PostSun May 24, 2020 1:53 pm

Paul,

This also explains why I have to wait until 1:30am EST for all my games to run - No efficiency leveraged there! :lol:
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paul8210

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Re: Are Injuries Really Random?

PostSun May 24, 2020 2:36 pm

J-Pav wrote:Paul,

This also explains why I have to wait until 1:30am EST for all my games to run - No efficiency leveraged there! :lol:

I love that west coast managers have an advantage when it comes to roster maintenance. Heck, moving to Hawaii could increase my winning percentage as much as 4.83 percent depending on the geographical location and sleeping habits of other league managers. :idea:
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UrbanBaboon

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Re: Are Injuries Really Random?

PostMon May 25, 2020 11:07 pm

First, I know about the fact that some players can't get injured and some can't be injured for more than the rest of the game. however, playing in the 2019 set you are talking about 13 total players, which isn't enough to go around in a 12 team league. And there are zero Catchers and Zero pitchers.

The problem with the massively increased injury possibility in this game is that there's no contingency for the injuries. If you have 4 or more injuries in a three game set (which has happened to me 6 times in 34 nights of play) you become forced to cut players at a penalty. or else (well i don't know exactly, I'd like to win and playing without a Pitcher or a Firstbaseman doesn't doesn't seem to be a good strategy for winning)

So you wind up rotating your lineup through the waiver wire and slowly losing capacity to field a decent team. And while the tracking of the year is very appealing, the commitment the game has to giving you a couple of injuries everyday, which forces the exchange of players renders the season long stats fairly meaningless, because only a handful of your players can survive on your team for anything close to a season. It completely strips away any amusement that comes from the pages of stats provided because you don't get to have season totals.

No team in real baseball is ever faced with going into a game with third base empty. It's a crazy divergence which completely strips this game of anything close to realism. And spending all your time trying to roster 10 batters (in a DH league) rather than trying to put together a good team isn't enjoyable. And as I said it creates a situation that never exists in real baseball. It's the way the card is set up that's the problem: most players have more injury outcomes than Home Run or Triple (some even double) possibilities, it's simply way out of wack.

I don't want to complain and not offer a way that could be better. So I have two ideas.
1. The idea of having 300 injuries in a 162 game season is ludicrous. They could add in a layer after the all too common injury outcome. A "Saving Throw" on a 20 sided where you need to roll below 20- injury rating to negate the injury. This would probably cut the number of injuries down to under a hundred a season, which would be good.
or
2. Create a free Nameless Replacement Level Player card, of average speed and fielding, designed to hit around .200 (maybe .240 OBP, that you can pickup only when you have an injured player (which is about 90% of the games). Then you could keep your players through a 5 day injury and get some use out of the many stat pages.

Like I said, there are some incredibly fascinating parts of this game. But this one thing, this bizarre commitment to injuring players every single series is awful enough to make the good stuff not worth it.
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milleram

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Re: Are Injuries Really Random?

PostMon May 25, 2020 11:55 pm

I agree injuries are a concern--BUT--on a DH team Hal will not let you fall below 9 non-pitchers (8 for-noDH)--if you carry a 13H-12P team--only 4 hitters can be hurt at once. If you have 4 on DL all injuries are ignored--similar to the catcher rule.

So High injury teams are viable and fun to play--with the exception of playoff time as you are facing the best teams.

(DO NOT USE ADVANCED INJURIES)--I played in one league and never will again.

The key is to cover up the middle adequately with bench (2B,SS,CF)--you don't want an out of position player there, it's not that difficult to put a high injury team together that will have very-very few games where a player has to play out of position.

Another option is to have a couple of no injury guys that need not be covered at all (preferably at 2B and SS, but even DH works) and high injuries everywhere else.
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UrbanBaboon

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Re: Are Injuries Really Random?

PostTue May 26, 2020 2:03 pm

I was unaware of the cap at 4 injuries, that is useful info.

But isn't the placement of this cap a full on admission that this game injures way to many players?
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