Andrew Miller - Hit/Pit ratio

Discuss different strategies for any of our player sets

Moderator: Palmtana

  • Author
  • Message
Offline

tof78

  • Posts: 46
  • Joined: Wed Jul 26, 2017 3:51 am

Andrew Miller - Hit/Pit ratio

PostSat Dec 15, 2018 5:13 am

I have discovered something that looks very strange to me.
With 2017 set I played 5 seasons.
I always had A.Miller as Reliever.

Here below his ratio between Hit and Pitch Dice rolls.
I am now suspecting that there is no equal chance between Hit and Pitch.
That would mean that Hal may chose more Hit dice roll than Pitch dice roll if a RP like Miller has a so nice Pitching Card.
If it is true that Hal may influence H/P ratio I think it is not fair as the price to get such player in our roster should already take this in account.

Stats per season. Keep in mind that I used this player a lot in order to optimize him:

- Hits 618 Pit 471
- Hits 615 Pit 476
- Hits 621 Pit 502
- Hits 648 Pit 516
- Hits 663 Pit 479

As you can see the ratio is quite the same and considering the high number of rolls the results start to demonstrate what I am suspecting.

Now I have few questions:

- Is there any clear rule n 365 version or computer version that says that Hal may influence H or P dice roll? (if you play a board game season you throw dice so that situation cannot happen
- did you experienced similar stats with Miller or equivalent Hit valued RP (I have to say that I just had similar one with Chad Green as well)

Thanks in advance for your feedback
Offline

Hittmens

  • Posts: 349
  • Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 6:19 pm

Re: Andrew Miller - Hit/Pit ratio

PostSat Dec 15, 2018 8:12 am

As his fatigue drops he will get a lot more hitter roles. Factor out the F0 etc and you will come close to the 50 50 split
Offline

hallerose

  • Posts: 308
  • Joined: Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:24 pm

Re: Andrew Miller - Hit/Pit ratio

PostSat Dec 15, 2018 9:51 am

You really need to subtract out all the rolls at less than F8. Probably just bad settings and bad bullpen construction.
Offline

tof78

  • Posts: 46
  • Joined: Wed Jul 26, 2017 3:51 am

Re: Andrew Miller - Hit/Pit ratio

PostSat Dec 15, 2018 12:59 pm

OK, got it.
Thanks
Offline

ScumbyJr

  • Posts: 1352
  • Joined: Wed Dec 11, 2013 11:55 am

Re: Andrew Miller - Hit/Pit ratio

PostWed Jan 09, 2019 5:06 pm

tof78 wrote:I have discovered something that looks very strange to me.
With 2017 set I played 5 seasons.
I always had A.Miller as Reliever.

Here below his ratio between Hit and Pitch Dice rolls.
I am now suspecting that there is no equal chance between Hit and Pitch.
That would mean that Hal may chose more Hit dice roll than Pitch dice roll if a RP like Miller has a so nice Pitching Card.
If it is true that Hal may influence H/P ratio I think it is not fair as the price to get such player in our roster should already take this in account.

Stats per season. Keep in mind that I used this player a lot in order to optimize him:

- Hits 618 Pit 471
- Hits 615 Pit 476
- Hits 621 Pit 502
- Hits 648 Pit 516
- Hits 663 Pit 479

As you can see the ratio is quite the same and considering the high number of rolls the results start to demonstrate what I am suspecting.

Now I have few questions:

- Is there any clear rule n 365 version or computer version that says that Hal may influence H or P dice roll? (if you play a board game season you throw dice so that situation cannot happen
- did you experienced similar stats with Miller or equivalent Hit valued RP (I have to say that I just had similar one with Chad Green as well)

Thanks in advance for your feedback


I think you are on to something. Same thing happened with Chad Green
Hits 599 Pit 442
It started early and continued until the end.

I sent this message early in the season
Happy Thanksgiving

To: All
From: Me
Date: Thursday, 11/22/2018 2:39pm

I won't give thanks for Chad Green having 135 hitters rolls to 83 pitcher rolls. Last night 6 consecutive batters got on base off hitter card rolls with Green a F9.

https://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/misc/1500360
Offline

STEVE F

  • Posts: 3039
  • Joined: Tue Mar 19, 2013 2:08 pm

Re: Andrew Miller - Hit/Pit ratio

PostWed Jan 09, 2019 7:13 pm

deleted
Offline

milleram

  • Posts: 652
  • Joined: Tue Apr 02, 2013 12:40 am

Re: Andrew Miller - Hit/Pit ratio

PostThu Jan 10, 2019 1:38 am

I haven't used Miller this season--I've had Green on a couple of teams. (and missed him in initial draft often)

I used F7 mostly on 1st team, sometimes F6 when I had another pitcher injured--I didn't use any F settings on the team he had his poorer season--his roll ratio was 355-350 his good season and then 350-355--dead even across both teams---if you set a reliever at low F settings your AB will start to pile up on hitters no matter how good he is--- the lower the F setting the more AB on hitters--I can't explain why Green had a bad season on 2nd team--but it wasn't roll bias.

In my experience AB will tend to be slightly bias toward hitters overall even with no F settings as HAL will hold pitchers in the game if you get a sizable lead, or with other pitchers tired.

https://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1492548

https://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1495003

Return to General Strategy

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests