Clutch Ratings...HUH?

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ggyuppie

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Clutch Ratings...HUH?

PostFri Nov 09, 2018 11:57 am

Proviso, I just looked at an extremely small sample size. Since in-game the clutch rating applies only in two-out situations with runner(s) in scoring position, I assumed the ratings were based on the difference between the player’s overall BA and his BA w 2-outs/RISP. If not that, than what?

Looking at baseball-reference.com, I checked out the splits of these 3 players/seasons.

1979 Sixto Lezcano battted .321 overall. 75 of his 566 PA’s were with 2 outs & RISP, he hit .356. His clutch rating is 2 out chances on each side.

1995 Reggie Sanders batted .306 overall. 83 of his 567 PA’s were with 2 outs & RISP , he hit .367. His clutch rating is 6 out chances on each side.

1988 Andy Van Slyke batted .288 overall. 71 of his 660 PA’s were with 2 outs & RISP, he hit .200. His clutch rating is 3 hit chances vs. R and 4 hit chances vs. L.

What gives?
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jjii66

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Re: Clutch Ratings...HUH?

PostFri Nov 09, 2018 12:58 pm

"Clutch" is really a misnomer. I'm not sure how they figure it, but it has nothing to do with real-life clutch hitting... I think it has more to do with RBI's.
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jjii66

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Re: Clutch Ratings...HUH?

PostFri Nov 09, 2018 1:38 pm

Here is what the help file says (from the Windows game)

Clutch Hitting measures each player's ability to deliver the clutch hit. Strat-O-Matic's exclusive clutch hitting formula accurately measures every player's ability in these key situations. Traditional clutch hitting stats do not comprise enough situations to make them statistically significant. For instance a batter with 500 at-bats might only hit 110 times with runners in scoring position and perhaps 80 times in "close and late" situations. This total number of at-bats is not enough to truly gauge his clutch hitting ability, because in 190 at-bats a .250 hitter can be expected to swing anywhere between .187 and .313 just as a result of random statistical distribution. Strat-O-Matic's exclusive clutch hitting formula measures the outcome of every baserunner that the batter affected during the year. This detailed approach provides a true measurement of the batter's clutch hitting ability. Our system is implemented with 2 outs and runners in scoring position because in real-life that is traditionally the most difficult time to "come through" with a base hit. If the batter fails, there are no more chances to drive in those runners. Most batters will see their average go down in the clutch -- both in real-life and with our system.
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STEVE F

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Re: Clutch Ratings...HUH?

PostFri Nov 09, 2018 2:07 pm

Wrong and wrong. It is nothing more than a RBI adjuster, to make stats more accurate in a stock single season replay.
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ggyuppie

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Re: Clutch Ratings...HUH?

PostFri Nov 09, 2018 2:51 pm

Thanks for the comments. I guess I'm still not sure.

If it's as Steve just indicated, perhaps it shouldn't be employed at all in the online game. Not because of any fairness issue, since I've always assumed it gets built into the pricing model, but because it is based on a measure which doesn't even translate into the circumstance in which it is employed.

If it's consistent with the windows game help file, then why not devise the rule to apply more subtly across more circumstances? And let pitchers have a tougher (or weaker) with-runners-on rating too. Bigger sample size = reduced statistical variation, right? There are, after all, plenty of cases where a pitcher with a relatively high WHIP managed an ERA which was lower than you'd expect, because he was tough in jams (or maybe tough and lucky).

The Strat statement about the problem with small sample size is a little silly, considering there are cards for players with fewer than 100 at bats, which themselves have clutch ratings. Talk about a small sample size! Take 2001 Ed Sprague, with 105 PA's. He's got one clutch out chance on his card, each side. That's a one in 216 outcome. Being generous and assuming 20% of his at bats come in clutch situations, and assuming you use him and limit use to real-life, that comes up once every 10 full season simulations, on average.

It seems to me the cards are meant to simulate the production of a player in a specific season. The cards don't "accurately measure" every player's clutch "abilities", since there are many players who were either clutch or not over their careers who had years where their stats skewed the other way.

I think the leverage measure is an interesting one, distinguishing outcomes in at bats with more or less potential impact on the game outcome.
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milleram

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Re: Clutch Ratings...HUH?

PostMon Nov 12, 2018 3:57 pm

Steve is right, there was a discussion four or five years back about Strats clutch rating--Strat is to trying to get RBIs correct for "true replays"--that is playing not only a replay of a season as played, but replay lineups per day.

It has nothing to do what-so-ever with the players clutch hitting batting average for that season.

I suggested being able to create new leagues with clutch turned off, but since it is part of super-advanced rules, they would have to break it out of programming. Other features of super advanced are different in online than the computer version (or CD-Rom/Download version), such as weather affects, so it could be done.

The game online has no resemblance to a true replay of a season. I for one would like the clutch features to at least be an on/off option when you create a new league that is not an auto league.

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