Advancement on Ground Outs

Discuss different strategies for any of our player sets

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kenhutchings

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Advancement on Ground Outs

PostThu Oct 11, 2018 4:43 pm

I'm somewhat curious as to what other player's strategy would be in this situation..

This happened in a WINDOWS game where I'm competing against HAL. Situation: runner on 2nd with one out, my team at bat. The dice result in a ground ball to the shortstop with a 1-9 chance of making it safely to third if I desire to take the chance.

When I was considering this, my line of thinking was that I had a 45% chance of being successful if I attempted and HAL decided to try for the out at third base. I would have thought that even at 45% that HAL would prefer to get the sure out at first base, because even if the runner advances, there would be two outs, so a sacrifice fly would not be possible.

To my delight, HAL decided to go for the lead runner, who made it to third safely, and the next batter hit a sacrifice fly to score the run.

Wouldn't you think that HAL would rather concede the base and get the second out? [I know, I know, I'm assuming that HAL is being logical]. It would be better to have a runner on third with two outs rather than runners on first and third with one out. I would think getting the sure out would be the way to go on defense even if the chance of success for the team at bat was 20%.
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coyote303

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Re: Advancement on Ground Outs

PostThu Oct 11, 2018 8:42 pm

I would take the sure out with a 55 percent chance, but I would try for the out with an 80 percent chance to get the out at third. I like your logic of taking the sure out in the first case. However, by getting the out at third, you remove the runner from scoring position. I'm not sure what the percentage cutoff for me would be in deciding whether to try for the runner at third.

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