Picking Pitchers

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NMILSTEIN

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Picking Pitchers

PostThu Sep 14, 2017 5:58 pm

When looking at pitchers which stat is most important when predicting their performance in Strat?

ERA? WHIP? FIP? Other?
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coyote303

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Re: Picking Pitchers

PostThu Sep 14, 2017 7:13 pm

ERA doesn't mean as much as you would think. Mostly you need to look at the card. For example, a pitcher with seemingly great stats in 1968 won't have a card as good as you would expect because the hitting was so terrible that year. Also, the context of your stadium needs to be considered. For example, in Coors Field, ballpark homeruns are deadly.

One thing that can hurt you is a pitcher with an extreme slant against righties or lefties. The becomes exponentially more important as a league's salary cap increases. (Managers with a higher salary cap will have more flexibility stacking against extremely slanted pitchers.)

That being said I look at number of homerun chances, hit chances, and on-base chances (hits + walks). High double play chances are a bonus.
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Mumford

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Re: Picking Pitchers

PostThu Sep 14, 2017 9:12 pm

NMILSTEIN wrote:When looking at pitchers which stat is most important when predicting their performance in Strat?

ERA? WHIP? FIP? Other?


BP Homerun chances (#) are huge or if in a small ball pitchers park a negative hold rating is good plus rare pitchers with no BP single chances. Also minimize extra base hits.
I would start at WHIP unless you need an extreme versus left or right pitcher
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thom09w

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Re: Picking Pitchers

PostFri Sep 15, 2017 11:17 pm

The problem with WHIP is it doesn't take power into consideration. I've never understood why opposing OPS isn't used. But of the stats Strat shows, I'd say WHIP but take a peek at HRs allowed.
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NMILSTEIN

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Re: Picking Pitchers

PostSat Sep 16, 2017 3:47 pm

Thanks to all that replied. I didn't ask my question very clearly, I really was more interested in which stats Strat uses to determine a card. I know that they would never reveal their formula but I thought some people may have some guesses.

ERA can be misleading especially for relievers and WHIP doesn't account for HR's allowed so I would agree with thom09w and say opponents OPS is probably the best indicator.
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MARCPELLETIER

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Re: Picking Pitchers

PostWed Sep 20, 2017 2:02 pm

Bruce Bundy has developed formulas over the year that predict a pitcher's card with 95% accuracy or so. You have the formulas below. The full explanations are found on his website: http://www.cba-bb.net/Bundy.htm

To answer your question, there is no one single stat that you could rely with full accuracy.If I were to pick one, it would be pitcher's opponent OPS, but still, you would need to make adjustments to have a better idea of what the pitchers's card would look like, adjustments for leagues (National vs American), for stadium environment, and for team's defense. Stadium environment is based on a 3-year period, so this year's stadium rating are probably a good indicator of how you should adjust HR allowed for this year pitcher's card. Ideally, you should also take away HBP and Intentional walks out of OPS, since SOM does not consider the latter two when making the pitcher's card.

You could probably skipped the non-intentional walks for starting pitchers without too much impact, but relievers are more affected by this stat. Seung Hwan Oh this year allowed 13 walks while facing 250 hitters, which is a pretty good ratio. But 8 of the those 13 walks were intentional. So he really allowed only 5 walks, which is outstanding. His card won't have any walk on it (a pitcher must allow more than 9 walks per 108 hitters faced to have walks on their cards).

But you could try Bundy's formula and try to make your own estimates.

In short, non-IBB, doubles, and triples seem to be only affected by league's adjustment.

Home runs are adjusted by the environment of the pitcher's team. Singles too, and they are further adjusted by the quality of the pitcher's team's defense.

In bold italic are constats you should adjust per league, by roughly a 4% difference (consider 8.8 for NL and 9.2 for AL instead of taking 9 in formula #16.

FORMULA #15: PITCHER'S TBF
pTBF = ( IP * 2.95 ) + HITS + ( W - IW )

FORMULA #16: PITCHER'S WALK
sompW = (( W - IW ) * 216 ) / ( TBF - IW )) - 9

FORMULA #17a: PITCHER'S HIT
sompH = ((( HIT / TBF ) * 216 ) - 29.4 ) + XF
(XF = Xchart FACTOR; DEFAULT = 4.9)

FORMULA #17b: PITCHER'S HIT
sompH = ((( HIT * ( 168 - sompW ) / (( TBF - IW ) * .265)) + (((( 2 * oppBA ) - .265 ) * 30 ) - XF)

FORMULA #18: PITCHER'S DOUBLE
sompD = (( D * 216 ) / (TBF - IW )) - 90

FORMULA #19: PITCHER'S TRIPLE
sompT = (( T * 216 ) / (TBF - IW )) - 15

PRE 1990 FORMULA #19
sompT = sompHR * .4
FORMULA #20: PITCHER'S HOMERUN
sompHR = (( HR * 216 ) / (TBF - IW)) - 50

FORMULA #21: PITCHER'S STRIKEOUT
sompK = (( K * 216 ) / ( TBF - IW ))

FORMULA #22: PITCHER'S HOLD
sompHOLD = (( SB / ( SB + CS )) - .6666 ) * 20

FORMULA #23: PITCHER'S POINT OF WEAKNESS
sompPOW = IP / APP

FORMULA #24: PITCHER'S ERROR
sompERROR = ( E * 1458 ) / IP

FORMULA #25: PITCHER'S BALK
sompBALK = ( BALK * 290 ) / IP

FORMULA #26: PITCHER'S WILDPITCH
sompWILDPITCH = ( WP * 200 ) / IP

FORMULA #27: PITCHER'S CLOSER RATINGS
sompCLOSE =0=N; 1-3=0; 4-6=1; 7-9=2; 10-14=3; 15-19=4; 20-29=5; >30=6

FORMULAS #28:W POWER HR ADJUSTMENT
somHR = (((leagueHR/leaguePA)*20)*(108-somHBP-somW))+somHR(under 10)
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NMILSTEIN

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Re: Picking Pitchers

PostWed Sep 20, 2017 10:58 pm

Wow, that's a lot of great info. Thanks for sharing it

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