How Long do you stick with an underperforming card?

Discuss different strategies for any of our player sets

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Verbal Warrior

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How Long do you stick with an underperforming card?

PostTue Mar 07, 2017 8:53 pm

That's a big one right? You look at the card and probabilities and say 'No way this guy shouldn't at least be above .250 and have 10-15 more dingers and yet every game...nothing. You keep him at the 3 4 or 5 hole and...bubkes.

How long until you say, it's literally 'just not in the cards'? 40, 50 games, 80?

You look at some FAs and think 'This card is waaay worse than my guy' but do you make a move for the sake of making it or stick it out figuring it'll alllll balance out?
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coyote303

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Re: How Long do you stick with an underperforming card?

PostTue Mar 07, 2017 11:15 pm

Verbal Warrior wrote:That's a big one right? You look at the card and probabilities and say 'No way this guy shouldn't at least be above .250 and have 10-15 more dingers and yet every game...nothing. You keep him at the 3 4 or 5 hole and...bubkes.

How long until you say, it's literally 'just not in the cards'? 40, 50 games, 80?

You look at some FAs and think 'This card is waaay worse than my guy' but do you make a move for the sake of making it or stick it out figuring it'll alllll balance out?


If you know you have a good card, keep it. I don't care how badly your player is doing. Never drop a good card just because it is "in a slump." This is one of those things that separates a good manager from one who...underperforms!

Now if you're talking about a mystery card league and you don't know which year your player has, that's a more complicated topic.
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ScumbyJr

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Re: How Long do you stick with an underperforming card?

PostFri Mar 10, 2017 2:43 pm

Verbal Warrior wrote:That's a big one right? You look at the card and probabilities and say 'No way this guy shouldn't at least be above .250 and have 10-15 more dingers and yet every game...nothing. You keep him at the 3 4 or 5 hole and...bubkes.

How long until you say, it's literally 'just not in the cards'? 40, 50 games, 80?

You look at some FAs and think 'This card is waaay worse than my guy' but do you make a move for the sake of making it or stick it out figuring it'll alllll balance out?


The first thing to do is look at the dice roll distribution to see if it is biased towards the pitcher. Then look at the left/right stats to see if that is part of it. But generally I will stick with a under performer since the card is better than what the replacement would be. Here is a 70's mystery league where Yaz ( turned out to be '69) tanked in the regular season. A few times I check the Fa Pool, but stuck with him He finished with a pitiful .199 avg .288. obp .389 slg 27 hrs and only 69 RBI.
http://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1438164
However, he went nuts in the playoffs leading me to a title .363, .375, .636 4 Hr 13 RBI
http://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/postseason/1438164
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Jerlins

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Re: How Long do you stick with an underperforming card?

PostFri Mar 10, 2017 10:41 pm

Unless the card is not viable to the ballpark you play in such as a rh'd hitter in an extreme lh'd park, or a card filled with ballpark hr's in a pitchers park, never!! This is a statistics game, not real life baseball. A card can underperform over the course of the whole season, but a hitter's card with a single on a 7 roll does not become a strikeout on that same roll because the card is tired or slightly nicked up. :)
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tmfw30

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Re: How Long do you stick with an underperforming card?

PostMon Mar 13, 2017 8:00 pm

We naturally anthropomorphize the cards but, to emphasize the previous post, the cards don't slump and don't have feelings. Any underperformance is a statistical quirk and can not be remedied by switching one card for another. In a standard league with a drop penalty, I can only see 2 reasons ever to replace a player in-season, one of which is rational and one of which is not.

1 (rational): Given the configuration of your ballpark, your opponents' ballparks, or your opponents' rosters, replacing a current card with one of lesser value actually increases your team's efficiency. This is entirely possible, but if so it essentially means that you made a mistake during the draft and waivers which you are now spending money to correct.

2 (irrational, but fine with me): It's more fun to treat your roster as one composed of real players whose performance is variable for intangible reasons other than strict rolls of the dice. It's human nature to feel this way given the cards have names on them that correspond to actual humans (despite myself there are cards I feel genuine affection and irritation towards due to their historical performance on my teams, and I surely have a bias when drafting them). But from a strict win probability perspective, this will only hurt you in the long run.

happy rolls everyone!
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Mumford

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Re: How Long do you stick with an underperforming card?

PostTue Mar 14, 2017 2:33 pm

tmfw30 wrote:We naturally anthropomorphize the cards but, to emphasize the previous post, the cards don't slump and don't have feelings. Any underperformance is a statistical quirk and can not be remedied by switching one card for another. In a standard league with a drop penalty, I can only see 2 reasons ever to replace a player in-season, one of which is rational and one of which is not.

1 (rational): Given the configuration of your ballpark, your opponents' ballparks, or your opponents' rosters, replacing a current card with one of lesser value actually increases your team's efficiency. This is entirely possible, but if so it essentially means that you made a mistake during the draft and waivers which you are now spending money to correct.

2 (irrational, but fine with me): It's more fun to treat your roster as one composed of real players whose performance is variable for intangible reasons other than strict rolls of the dice. It's human nature to feel this way given the cards have names on them that correspond to actual humans (despite myself there are cards I feel genuine affection and irritation towards due to their historical performance on my teams, and I surely have a bias when drafting them). But from a strict win probability perspective, this will only hurt you in the long run.

happy rolls everyone!


3)At or near the 141 game mark you may tweak your pitching staff or hitters to get better matchups a) within the division 2) or if you have a huge lead, with likely playoff opponents.
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rudys raiders

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Re: How Long do you stick with an underperforming card?

PostWed Mar 15, 2017 10:24 am

Far to long
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TomSiebert

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Re: How Long do you stick with an underperforming card?

PostWed Mar 29, 2017 10:41 pm

I usually wait at least half a season. Even then, I know it usually doesn't make logical sense, but I hate the guy and want to do something new.
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YettieJohnston

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Re: How Long do you stick with an underperforming card?

PostSat Apr 01, 2017 1:42 pm

Ahoy,

Yes - these cards are human!!!!

They will respond to my Billy Martin-like tirades!!!!

My favorite myth is trying to alter my batting order to try and light a fire under my under performing lead off or number 3/4 batters. And if I do alter then I forget to put them back in the order that made the most sense to me at the start of the season.

Yettie
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coolhandlewke

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Re: How Long do you stick with an underperforming card?

PostWed Apr 12, 2017 6:35 pm

why bother? if your card(s) under perform its clear you haven't bought enough credits, and strat has pre-ordained that you will lose. :arrow: :roll: :lol:
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