Change in bullpen setting

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MARCPELLETIER

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Change in bullpen setting

PostFri Mar 11, 2016 6:04 pm

Late last year, in 20XX, I had the feeling that something was not working as before with my bullpen settings. Very regularly, I used to buy a SP/RP as a spot 6th starter and manage "mop-up" situations. Whenever I was running short of relievers, the system would use that SP/RP even in non-mopup situations---which is something I appreciated---I prefer having this weak reliever rather than having a F0 reliever. At the end of last year, though, I sensed that the mop-up would never come to pitch other than to mop-up. I would have relievers going down to F2-F1 and the mop-up would come only when the game was out of hand. But you know, I wasn't sure, maybe HAL in all his logic thought that this F2-F1 reliever was better than my mop-up guy.

This game happened, which showed without a doubt what's going on. It's from ATG, but since Super-advance bullpen is used in both (except for closer role), I would suspect that the example holds also for 20XX.

What's interesting about this game is that it followed two games that went overtime, and so I had pretty much all my relievers depleted already.

http://365.strat-o-matic.com/game/playb ... 28826/1845

Just like I needed that, Ken Hill yields 5 runs in the first inning and it's 5-0. Trailing by 5 runs is NOT a situation that calls for the "mop-up"---the rule says that the game must be lead or lost by 7 runs to have the mop up get into the game. So the computer goes for a fresh reliever. At 7-3, Hal calls my second fresh reliever, but I'm running out of fresh relievers. Other than my SP/RP, these two relievers were my only fresh relievers (they pitched only two innings since they were pinched hit).

At 7-4, I expect to see the only fresh reliever left, my very own SP/RP Gil Heredia, but instead Hal calls for Jeff Shaw who had pitched extensively in the two previous games. As expected, he gets in the game at F4. Shaw gets two innings while allowing one run and is pinched hit too. Top to the 8th, losing 8-4, Hal calls for a starting pitcher who had thrown the game before---he gets in the game as F0---allows two rapid runs, and at the very FIRST occasion that the game becomes a mop-up situation, Hal suddenly removes my starting pitcher and throws in Gil Heredia who is perfectly fresh at F9, and who had no assigned role whatsover to start the next games.

As can be seen: SUBSTITUTION at P: Gil Heredia (role: Mopup), Hal clearly references to the Mopup role when he gets Heredia in.

Another note of information, contrary to what the wiki said, the Mop-up situation didn't come when I was trailing 7 runs, as I was only trailing 10-4---but the 7th potential run was on the basepath.

Note to myself: I won't use the mopup role anymore.

Note to SOM: it would have been fun to get notified of this reinforcement of the mop-up role before changing it.
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Knerrpool

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Re: Change in bullpen setting

PostMon Mar 14, 2016 1:12 pm

That's good to know. Thanks, Marc.
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Knerrpool

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Re: Change in bullpen setting

PostMon Mar 14, 2016 3:37 pm

I wonder if this applies to any of the other bullpen settings. If you've got a guy set to "Behind and Late" as his only role, would he never pitch any other times except in that situation?
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paul8210

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Re: Change in bullpen setting

PostMon Mar 14, 2016 10:06 pm

If that were true and Gil Heredia was 'behind and late", which he appears to have had that role assigned a few games earlier, then, 8-4 in the top of the eighth inning qualifies as "'behind and late." He definitely should have been picked over Clay to start the inning if he was 'behind and late'. If, on the other hand, Heredia was not 'behind and late', but, was assigned some other role, such as middle man, then, might that explain Clay coming in to start the eighth instead of Heredia?

Another thing to point out is that Shaw was F0 after giving up a hit to the first batter in an earlier inning, but, we can't be sure of his rating before he gave up the hit, although, it was quite possibly 'F0' based on appearances in previous two games.

Anyway, based on this example and one other I've seen posted in which an able pitcher would not come into the game and the team gave up 30 runs, I agree that this looks like a bad glitch no matter what the explanation might be.
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MARCPELLETIER

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Re: Change in bullpen setting

PostWed Mar 16, 2016 12:17 am

Will respond to both your comments later, but as a side note, I said that I was using "avoid using during blowouts" on my better relievers (with the hope that my SP/RP is used in blowouts) instead of assigning mop-up roles to SP/RP. It didn't work out in this game.

http://365.strat-o-matic.com/game/429314/99

Givens gets the call despite he was clicked to not being used in blowout.
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chris.sied@yahoo.com

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Re: Change in bullpen setting

PostMon Mar 21, 2016 12:13 pm

I have found my mopup guys being used when down by 5 or more, not 7.

I also tend to have my mopup guy listed in another role too with the strategies I use for my pen.

That all said, I have noticed HAL behaving very oddly when it comes to using the pen lately, often going to fatigued players or specialists against their opposite side (so letting my lefty specialist pitch to a righty) even when I have perfectly fresh relievers with roles left on the bench.

I have always attributed it to HAL drinking during the games. A change in the bullpen management algorithms might be another explanation.
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MARCPELLETIER

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Re: Change in bullpen setting

PostTue Mar 22, 2016 1:22 am

chris.sied, do you mind putting a link to your team, and point out who you are using as a mop-up? I would appreciate.

I have my second 2015 team starting tonight. My third game saw another sequence of bullpen. I had a SP/RP not set to start any game. Back 5-0 early and then 9-0. I don't have anyone set as mop-up. I wish I had a few relievers set as "avoid using when blowouts" to see how Hal would have reacted, but didn't. Still, I find it interesting that Hal, with basically a full free ride to choose any reliever he wants in this 9-0 deficit, decides to use all my available "only reliever", including two specialists, bringing one (Romo) set specifically as "avoid lh" to face a left-handed hitter, WHILE leaving my available R3 on the bench.

http://365.strat-o-matic.com/game/playbyplay/429327/34

In another team, I have a few SP/RP, but except for Narveson (who costs 0.50M and whom I set as specialist vs lh), the other relievers seem to stay on the bench too---but since I have been employing them as spot starters, maybe Hal didn't have the occasion.

Still I wonder if my first impression that my SP/RP "mop-up" guy was incomprehensively staying on the bench is not ultimately related to the fact that Hal has become cold in using expensive SP/RP unless he doesn't have any other choice.
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MARCPELLETIER

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Re: Change in bullpen setting

PostTue Mar 22, 2016 1:37 am

Knerrpool,

I wonder if this applies to any of the other bullpen settings. If you've got a guy set to "Behind and Late" as his only role, would he never pitch any other times except in that situation?


I don't think this is the case for the other roles. I have a pitcher assigned to "Behind and Late" and as 2nd closer, and he came in to pitch in other "non-assigned" roles too. I have a pitcher, Naverson, only assigned as specialist vs lhp, and he came in plenty of games not in that role, but only to take innings.

Paul,
It could be possible that Heredia had been assigned to "behind and late"...somtimes I gave him that role, sometimes not...can't recall now. But he was definitely never a middle inning man.

Would be cool if you could retrieve that 30-run deficit....I was under the impression that Hal had a rule to let a pitcher in a far removed useless game up until he allows 10 runs, after which Hal will do anything to replace him with an available pitcher.
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paul8210

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Re: Change in bullpen setting

PostSun Mar 27, 2016 12:40 pm

http://365.strat-o-matic.com/game/429033/70

Here's a similar example of an able-bodied pitcher, Jeff Weaver (S/R), not getting into the game (game 12). Tired pitchers get hammered, instead, and the team loses 33-1. I suspect that he wasn't assigned a role or was assigned a role that didn't match the situation, thus, his chances of coming into the game under any circumstances were greatly diminished. His only appearances were in games 24 and 25, in which he was assigned a role(s), but, it's unknown if he was assigned a role in game 12. 144 games have been played and Jeff Weaver has still not pitched, except for games 24 and 25. Starter/Relievers seem to be real black box when it comes to figuring out what HAL does to utilize them. Pure relievers aren't as confounding.

http://365.strat-o-matic.com/game/playbyplay/429026/965
To confuse the issue even more, here's a link to a 36-1 loss, but, note that, unlike Heredia and Weaver from the other two examples, S/R Vandeberg got into the game without a role assignment.

So, in summary, it appears possible that S/R pitchers are managed by HAL so that they only get to relieve if 1)they have no assigned role (e.g. Vandeberg) or 2)in the examples featuring Weaver and Heredia, they have an assigned role that meets the situation (such as mopup) and that situation only.

And, yes, the mopup role described in Wiki doesn't conform to the "Heredia" situation in which he came in as a "mopup" without a seven-run deficit.
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MARCPELLETIER

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Re: Change in bullpen setting

PostTue Mar 29, 2016 9:22 pm

Thanks so much, Paul. Looking at those games is so helpful, like having an english manual for building an IKEA desk!!

Looking at the first game, here was the situation for the team called Lala before the game starts

Kuo RP NOT available (has pitched more than one inning in each then the two preceding games)
Lindbloom RP NOT available (has pitched in three consecutives games before game

Weaver SP/RP fresh and available
Jansen RP fresh and available
Choate RP fresh and available

Lala has Lilly as a starter. As soon as the 5th run scores, Lilly gets immediately pulled for a reliever. This process is exactly as expected, no surprise there.

Lala then brings a fresh Choate. Choate allows 3 hits/walks in his first inning, and henceforth his rating gets down to F-3 and then spirals down to F0. At that point, the game is 8-0, so what we are seeing is HAL taking the decision that Choate will be the punching bag for his team. While, as a GM, I would have preferred to see Weaver coming in, I can understand that the coach decides at that point to extend Choate as long as possible with a score 8-0.

As I wrote in an earlier post, HAL has an unwritten rule to remove any pitcher that allows 10 earned runs or more. I have seen so many relievers being replaced precisely at that magic number to doubt that. Therefore, as expected, when Choate hits the 10 earned runs mark, HAL removes him. And this is were it gets SO interesting.

The score is 18-1, and who gets the call? The fatigued superstar Kuo!!! Weaver sits on the bench, and Kuo gets the call!! So poor Kuo gets in the game at F0, and allows 10 earned runs before you can spell "fatigue"...and at 28-1, instead of calling Weaver, HAL calls for unavailable Lindblom for a 4th consecutive game. So of course Lindblom enters the game at F0 and allows another 5 runs to finish the game

First question: why is it that Weaver didn't get the call? The best move is CLEARLY to use Weaver instead of tiring Kuo and Lindblom and have them unavailable for the next game.

The obvious comment I must say for now is that I must backtrack what I wrote earlier....the problem is NOT with the use of the "mopup role", as I previously thought. The problem clearly lies with SP/RP. I thought initially that Heredia was NOT getting the call (when Hal was instead using unavailable relievers) because he was assigned to a "mopup" role...in other words, I criticized that HAL was restricting Heredia's use to mopup situations only. But what the Weaver example clearly shows is that the "mopup" role in fact allowed Heredia to get into a game which otherwise he would have never got into (since Weaver never got the call, we can deduce that the lack of any assignment role prevents Hal to use a SP/RP at all).

What's even more intriguing is that Heredia and Weaver are right-handed SP/RP and we have plenty of examples where HAL doesn't seem to hesitate a second when using a LEFTY SP/RP to relieve in "out of control" game. Your second example showed Vandeberg come in a game with no assigned role with the score 14-0, and I have plenty of examples on my own where Narveson is used in no assigned role in similar situations (to give one example, Naverson gets in the game with his team trailing 11-1, and Narveson is NOT assigned as mop-up):

http://365.strat-o-matic.com/game/playbyplay/429314/204

This said, on that very team that has Narveson on, I have two cheap right-handed SP which I used in a kinda platoon. I have Collmenter and Marcum both SP/RP, and while Marcum has been used extensively in relief without any role assignment, Collmenter has never been used so far in relief despite plenty opportunities (he did not start a game for 17 straight games but never got the call to relieve...)

The second interesting point is that Jansen never gets the call....just like Wetteland never got the call to come in the game (Hal preferred to use a F0 starting pitcher). Looking at lala games, I can sense that Jansen is set at closer/setup man, whereas Kuo was not (he was assigned only as middle man). So there seems to be some programming that prevents HAL to use an assigned set-up/closer somehow...

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