Strategy Forum/Newbie Advice Thread

Discuss different strategies for any of our player sets

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Ninersphan

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Re: Strategy Forum/Newbie Advice Thread

PostTue Feb 26, 2013 1:05 pm

Saw this at SOMworld .com and thought it applied, especially the adivice on Fantasy vs Strat vis-a-vis Hallady and Weaver. Please note that the specific examples are referencing the upcoming cards but the theories apply overall.

Ultimate Strat Strategy
February 19, 2013

Forget the theories on winning with great hitting or winning with pitching and defense. Everyone wants to win with maximum card value.
Get the best OB*TB units for hitters, have 1 and 2 range in the field, and get great pitching cards. That’s not really strategy anymore. Everyone is chasing the exact same thing.
To be honest, card value dictates the type of team you have in a given set. Some years you may have great pitching. You may have the mega lineup in other sets. You always have to maximize whatever card value is on the roster.
What you want to do is go beyond what everyone else is doing.

Size Matters
Players that can start in a 24-team league may end up as reserves in a 16-team league. Players that are reserves in a 24-team league might be better left in the free agent pool in a 16-team league.
Zack Cozart has the number 18 SS card in the 2012 set going by the RC-RA measurement. That means he’s a starter in a 24-team league.
Cozart is not really good enough to start in a 16-team league. There are 17 better card options. Starting Cozart means you need to upgrade at the position.


Unproductive Outs
The lineup is a hamster on a wheel in a cage. You want to cycle through your lineup as many times as possible in a game. You need more than hits and walks from the lineup to win the game. You have to advance baserunners and score runs.
Player cards with high K and groundball A units do not advance runners. Several of these cards in your lineup will kill innings and cause you to lose draft league games.
Low average MLB hitters with high K percentages equals low Strat card hit units and high groundball A units. You don't want too many of these cards on your team.
This is one area where you can add 3 to 5 wins over a draft league season. That could be the difference between the playoffs and missing out on a wild card.

SP Split Differentials
The opposing manager tailors his lineup to take advantage of your SP card. Those cards with high split differentials are an open invitation for the opposing manager to load up the lineup. Max Scherzer, Johnny Cueto, even Matt Cain, have a high probability of underperforming in draft leagues, especially in the 16 and 20-team leagues. The cards are not balanced and will see a ratio or distribution of L/R that is exaggerated in comparison to the actual or real season.
Scherzer and Cueto in the playoffs against the wrong playoff opponent could easily equal an early exit from the post-season chase.


Fantasy Baseball Is Not Strat Baseball
Fantasy baseball analysis is not geared for the Strat game engine.
SP and RP cards may look good on the OB units or by a OB*TB unit measurement but they can still have issues because of 2 points.
Roy Halladay is never as good in Strat as in real life because he always has high 1B unit totals. High 1B unit totals means the opponents will nickel and dime you with base runners. Sooner or later, there will be a big hit or roll off the hitter cards.
Jered Weaver has high RH BP HR units. Sooner or later that will come into play and cost you games. The home ballpark is only good 50 percent of the time. You can try to minimize the damage but Weaver will still pitch in tougher environments.
Weaver and Halladay are great for fantasy. They may or may not be as good in a given Strat set because of 1B or HR unit issues.
Carl Crawford may have been fantasy gold in some seasons. He has never had great RH OB units in his Strat history. He has been above average in sets but never great. The same is true with Ichiro and Jose Reyes.
All three of these hitters have produced good Strat cards in the past. This is not to diminish them as Strat players but they are not as good in Strat as they have been in fantasy baseball.


Heavy Hitter vs. Slick Fielder is False
This is not a good dichotomy or distinction for Strat baseball. It promotes false choices and fails to account for the differences between the hitting columns and the X-Chart results.
Miguel Cabrera is a horrible fielder but his bat is so much better than most other hitters that the defense doesn't matter. Brendan Ryan may have the SS-1 but his bat is so horrible that it diminishes your lineup and run-scoring efficiency.
What you want is a hitter card where the offensive contribution exceeds the defensive "give back," for want of a better term. You get that with Cabrera. You get that with Derek Jeter, even if he is a SS-3. You don't get that with Brendan Ryan or Freddy Galvis. Why? There is no offensive contribution.
What you want are hitter cards with big RC-RA, where runs created far outpaces runs allowed. And if you're still worried about it, then that's what the defensive replacements are for.
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Palmtana

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Re: Strategy Forum/Newbie Advice Thread

PostFri Mar 08, 2013 10:05 pm

marcus wilby with an explanation of how to "count the cards"

Great rotation but....
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gbrookes

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Re: Strategy Forum/Newbie Advice Thread

PostFri Mar 15, 2013 12:24 pm

DeanTSC's excellent paper on offense vs. defense, and the run production model:

http://www.mfooz.com/bblog/wp-content/u ... efense.pdf
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STEVE F

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Re: Strategy Forum/Newbie Advice Thread

PostFri Mar 22, 2013 3:19 pm

Thanks for the good reading. Are these strategies best for 12 or 24 team league? Or does it matter? Which do you guys prefer playing in and why?
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bertolett

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Re: Strategy Forum/Newbie Advice Thread

PostSat Mar 23, 2013 8:54 pm

Any advice on what parts of the pitcher preferences to use?

Seems like you can enter too many roles and Hal just gives up and uses the worst pitchers.
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geekor

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Re: Strategy Forum/Newbie Advice Thread

PostTue Mar 26, 2013 12:16 pm

bertolett wrote:Any advice on what parts of the pitcher preferences to use?

Seems like you can enter too many roles and Hal just gives up and uses the worst pitchers.


Post a link to a team and I will tell you how I would have it set.

you have to use some logic that is easy for the computer to follow, otherwise it will just fail. You have to give it enough options, otherwise things will fall apart quickly.

For instance if you have only 1 RP set and mopup and middle man, and he is knocked around or used 2 days in a row, who will pitch? You really have to give enough settings to cover all your bases. That's why I always have at least 5 RP, sometimes more, to give the computer enough options that they can be used right.
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bertolett

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Re: Strategy Forum/Newbie Advice Thread

PostTue Mar 26, 2013 9:23 pm

^

http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/team/822393

You'll also notice Chris Sale ain't burning it up...
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Palmtana

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Re: Strategy Forum/Newbie Advice Thread

PostMon Apr 01, 2013 10:15 pm

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jmlopp

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Re: Strategy Forum/Newbie Advice Thread

PostFri Apr 05, 2013 5:55 am

HI!

I have a happy delimma. I am in a 24 team keeper league. We play in Seattle. This is my pitching staff:

1. Bumgarner
2.Cueto
3. Lee
4. Buehrle
5. Medlin
6. Kimbrel
7. Tazawa
8. Lecure
9. Cishek
10. Lyles
What do I do with Medlin? Is he a bigger weapon in the starting rotation or the bullpen?
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STEVE F

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Re: Strategy Forum/Newbie Advice Thread

PostFri Apr 05, 2013 6:27 pm

I would start him for 2 reasons: 1 your bullpen is insane as it is 2. Your rotation is lefty heavy without him


jmlopp wrote:HI!

I have a happy delimma. I am in a 24 team keeper league. We play in Seattle. This is my pitching staff:

1. Bumgarner
2.Cueto
3. Lee
4. Buehrle
5. Medlin
6. Kimbrel
7. Tazawa
8. Lecure
9. Cishek
10. Lyles
What do I do with Medlin? Is he a bigger weapon in the starting rotation or the bullpen?
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