NLD 61 - The Asterisk Season

He's got 7 eligible SPs.

Had the same relief/start sequence with Sampson in one series. He's had 17 starts and 6 relief appearances - - but nothing like Rasmussen.

Ratings are done now that we passed the 81 game mark. There are some big differentials this time around, but it's really marked by how close the ratings are overall.

There are two outliers at the top and at the bottom, six teams that are super close and two that the ratings would expect to be also-rans. We'll get to that in a minute

In terms of how the divisions shape up, the West has the best overall rating, but it's not an extreme difference. It is also the best offensive team and the wortst pitching. The Central is the best on P+F, but the East isn't far behind. The East has actually better pitchers, but the D in the East leaves somthing to be desired.

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Team...   O...   P...   F..   P+F.   Ovrl   Div
SemperG   7856   4966   295   5261   2639   C
JoeTJet   7885   4911   497   5408   2552   C
Jeep...   7492   4451   651   5102   2442   E
Millerm   8363   5056   947   6003   2430   W
KLX....   8111   5110   659   5768   2396   E
Stoney.   7838   4941   613   5553   2345   W
BigAlrc   8000   5335   386   5721   2339   W
Spider.   7757   4867   605   5472   2326   W
hawk...   7306   4696   387   5082   2270   C
Randal.   7290   4589   532   5121   2244   E
stevep.   7550   4723   866   5590   2031   E
Dale...   7162   5419   80   5499   1714   C


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Divi   Offn   Ptch   Fld   P+F   Overall
East   7611   4718   677   5395   2278
Cent   7552   4998   314   5313   2294
West   7990   5050   638   5687   2360


Overall Ratings would expect the races to shape up like this:
East - Two race between Jeep and KLX. Randal and Steve at the bottom with Steve out of the race.
Central - Another two team race with the best two ratings (Semp, JTJ) in this division and two teams not so great. Dale is working with $5 mil less than everyone else so the bottom rating is expected.
West - All four teams tightly bunched with Miller having the best rating by enough to make them the favorite
WC - The loser of the Central would be expected to have the upper hand here especially with two weaker teams. However, the loser in the East would also have high expectations for the same reason. The West looks close enough to keep anyone from taking the WC.

The reality:
East - Four team race. Steve continues to flaunt the ratings. Three teams with + run difs and Jeep surprisingly with a big deficit.
Central - Other than Dale 8 games up on Hawk it's pretty right on. Of course Dale's ratings on his current team, not the one that played earlier.
West - Pretty much as advertised, but I wouldn't expect only 1 positive run dif.
WC - JTJ up two on Randal, klx Spider and Big A. Three other teams are within five games. With a lot of divisonal games left to be played, Ratings would expect that the West teams may drop back in the WC race.

Overall

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Team Ov   Ovrl   Rtg   Rec   Dif   
SemperG   2639   2   2   0   C
JoeTJet   2552   3   4   -1   C
Jeep...   2442   4   6   -2   E
Millerm   2430   4   4   0   W
KLX....   2396   4   5   -1   E
Stoney.   2345   4   6   -2   W
BigAlrc   2339   4   5   -1   W
Spider.   2326   4   5   -1   W
hawk...   2270   6   10   -4   C
Randal.   2244   6   5   1   E
stevep.   2031   8   4   4   E
Dale...   1714   11   6   5   C


Hawk is well below and Steve and Dale well above. Dale can be explained a bit by the moves, Steve is out performing offensively by a big amount. Hawk's pitching has struggled. Given that there are so many teams close is ratings, I'm not surprised that the races are so close.

Offense

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Team Of   O   Rtg   Run   Dif
Millerm   8363   1   2   -1
KLX....   8111   3   4   -1
BigAlrc   8000   4   6   -2
JoeTJet   7885   5   5   0
SemperG   7856   5   3   2
Stoney.   7838   5   10   -5
Spider.   7757   6   5   1
stevep.   7550   9   3   6
Jeep...   7492   9   9   0
hawk...   7306   11   12   -1
Randal.   7290   11   9   2
Dale...   7162   12   9   3


As stated Steve is well over expectations. Stoney is well below. The rest are close.

P+F

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Team PF   P+F   Rtg   Run   Dif
hawk...   5082   2   7   -5
Jeep...   5102   2   8   -6
Randal.   5121   2   3   -1
SemperG   5261   4   4   0
JoeTJet   5408   6   5   1
Spider.   5472   7   8   -1
Dale...   5499   7   5   2
Stoney.   5553   8   4   4
stevep.   5590   8   5   3
BigAlrc   5721   10   9   1
KLX....   5768   10   9   1
Millerm   6003   12   12   0


Hawk and Jeep's pitching+fielding have not met expectations. Stones unexpected offense is mitigated by an unexpectedly good rating here. Steve is also a bit high.

Fielding - I haven't done the luck ratings so I'll just post the order for now. Things to note is that Dale is REALLY good and Miller is REALLY bad.

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Fieldng   FRt
Dale...   80
SemperG   295
BigAlrc   386
hawk...   387
JoeTJet   497
Randal.   532
Spider.   605
Stoney.   613
Jeep...   651
KLX....   659
stevep.   866
Millerm   947


I'm pretty happy with my team. I would have expected to be doing better, but competition in this league is tough.

Perhaps I'm a very lucky person - particularly when it comes to stratomatic?
(Very unlikely.)

Or perhaps Joe doesn't understand how I am using the players on my team in his assessment?
(Likely.)

Or maybe Joe's ratings system needs updating?
(Highly likely.)

Cheers,
SP

I'm not surprised at being 1st rated hitting team or last rated fielding team--but 4th overall surprises me. I expected a much lower overall rating.

I'm pretty happy with my team. I would have expected to be doing better, but competition in this league is tough.

Perhaps I'm a very lucky person - particularly when it comes to stratomatic?
(Very unlikely.)

Or perhaps Joe doesn't understand how I am using the players on my team in his assessment?
(Likely.)

Or maybe Joe's ratings system needs updating?
(Highly likely.)

Cheers,
SP

Hi Steve,

Yeah, the ratings don't figure mix and match lineups perfectly and since you have 15 players, I assume you're doing that. You also have a lot of injury players and I don't know that has penalized you as much as the ratings assume. Probably the biggest reason for your low rating is your poor defense particularly in the OF and Grandal's arm as your infield D is decent. Again, the injuries play into that also as backups, generally, aren't as good of fielders as the starters. For example, you're playing Odor at 2b when Mondesi goes out.

So, to answer your questions:

I'll do the luck factors next so I'll let you know what they say.

As I said, the ratings are setup to deal with relatively set lineups v RH and LH and you may not have that.

Not sure What you think the ratings are getting wrong, but would love to get your thoughts. Primarily your offense is rated low, especially v RHP becuase your OB is so low. Your offense at home and in high HR parks is obviously much better but I would still expect a lot of solo HRs. Your pitching is actually in the top 4, but the fielding is expected to bring that down. Perhaps it hasn't. Fielding is always the biggest wild card in the ratings.

The more I look at it, the more it appears that injuries and OB are the reasons why the ratings think you're O is over-performing.

Please don't take the ratings personally, they are just numbers that the spreadsheet spits out. There are definite weak spots when in comes to mix/match lineups and RP usage.

I'm not surprised at being 1st rated hitting team or last rated fielding team--but 4th overall surprises me. I expected a much lower overall rating.

Well, you're in 4th, but it's effectively a six-way tie for third with Jeep, you, Millerm, KLX, Stoney within 100 points of each other. Big A and Spider aren't much farther back.

aaaaand, on cue, I get swept after posting the ratings. Seems like this happens every time.

My offense versus RHP for the hitters I have is ridiculously off. Hoping it will balance out sooner or later or I will fall right out of contention.

# Name Pos BA OBP SLG
1 Guerrero Jr., V. (R) 1B .232 .308 .515
2 Flores, W. (R) 3B .232 .302 .564
3 Baez, J. (R) SS .251 .286 .527
4 Castellanos, N. (R) DH .253 .292 .489
5 Peters, D. (R) CF .180 .229 .514
6 Jansen, D. (R) C .220 .262 .535
7 Altuve, J. (R) 2B .184 .277 .353
8 De La Cruz, B. (R) RF .223 .281 .327
9 Canha, M. (R) LF .138 .275 .239

Leading the league with injuries with 166 days. Next closest are 130 & 107.

Bellinger with 188 ab's and Robertson with 117 isn't going to win many games.

Luck Factors below. KLX, they don't address rolling the wrong columns, only rolling on the wrong card. Stoney, you are indeed unlucky in that manner.

Steve, you haven't been lucky overall, but you have in terms of injuries which affect the ratings for your team vis-a-vis actually performance.

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Mgr .. .   SI   HR   1-R   Pyt   Rolls   UE/E   Inj   Luck Fctr
KLX....   +12%   +25%   0    0    +2.2%   67%   -52   5.5
Millerm   +2%   +2%   +11   +4   -0.2%   68%   -43    3
Jeep...   -4%   -7%   +9   +6   -1.7%   56%    +9     1
BigA...   +2%   -1%   +2   +3   -0.1%   47%      -6   1
dale...   -3%   +5%   +1   0    +3.4%   39%   -37     1
Hawk...   -3%   +5%   -4   0    +3.4%   100%   -63    1
Randal.   +3%   -8%   -4   -2   -1.3%   40%   -13     0
Spider.   -0%   -3%   +3   0    -0.1%   58%    +4     0
stevep.   -6%   -4%   -5   -4   +0.2%   60%   -52    -1
Semper.   -1%   -9%   -5   -1   -2.5%   27%   -49    -2
Stoney.   -8%   -2%   -3   -1   +0.2%   52%   +32    -2
JTJ....   +1%   -26%   -5   -3   +0.9%   63%   +26   -5.5


KLX, sorry to say, despite what you say above, you've been very lucky in many ways. I'm sure it doesn't feel that way, but you've been very, very luck in both bp singles and bphr. 25% more bphrs is a HUGE difference. In addition, you've rolled 2.2% more on your own card which is, again, a significant difference and to top it off, you've had fewer injuries than expected.

Millerm has also been somewhat lucky, but it's confined to 11 one run victories and the corresponding difference in pythag.

Turning to the other side of the coin, JTJ has been very unlucky (I had a feeling, but didn't think it was this bad) He's been brutalized in the bphr situation to the tune of a 26% deficit and is down in one run and pythag. Then there are the injuries which are much higher than expected.

Stones, as you point out, your injuries are high and, on top of that, you've been unlucky in bpsi. Semper is also -2 in luck factors with -9% in bphrs, 2.5 in rolling on his card and down in one runners too. That is balanced somewhat by an extremely low ratio of errors to unearned runs.

Interesting to note that Randal and Spider have no pluses or minuses in the luck factors.

Fielding ratings - Only Hawk has much of a variance with his fielding being better than the ratings would expect.

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Fieldng   FRt Rtg   F%   Dif
Dale...   80     1   2   -1
SemperG   295   4   3   1
BigAlrc   386   5   6   -1
hawk...   387   5   2   3
JoeTJet   497   6   7   -1
Randal.   532   6   5   1
Spider.   605   7   7   0
Stoney.   613   7   5   2
Jeep...   651   7   8   -1
KLX....   659   7   8   -1
stevep.   866   10   10   0
Millerm   947   11   11   0