NLD 58 Papelbon Closes 2021

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joethejet

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Re: NLD 58 Papelbon Closes 2021

PostSat Oct 30, 2021 1:07 am

Ratings

Wife is out of town so I had time tonight.

Code: Select all
Team...   O...   P...   F..   P+F.   Ovrl   Div
toshiro   8117   4508   564   5072   3044   C
JoeTJet   8399   4958   483   5440   2959   W
Stoney.   8056   4693   483   5175   2881   W
hawk...   8223   4700   663   5364   2859   C
SemperG   8261   5302   240   5543   2719   C
Jeep...   8260   5030   626   5656   2604   W
Randal.   7795   4407   818   5225   2569   C
KLX....   8258   5158   543   5700   2557   W
Millerm   8070   4838   703   5540   2530   E
Spider.   8032   4948   621   5570   2462   E
BigAlrc   7213   4750   210   4960   2254   E
Dale...   7648   5191   747   5939   1709   E

Code: Select all
Divi   Offn   Ptch   Fld   P+F   Overall
East   7741   4932   570   5502   2239
Cent   8099   4729   572   5301   2798
West   8243   4960   533   5493   2750


Overall things are close. Biggest surprise is Hawk. The East is the weakest Division. The Central and West are similar overall.

Overall

Code: Select all
Team Ov   Ovrl   Rtg   Rec   Dif   
toshiro   3044   1   2   -1   C
JoeTJet   2959   2   1   1   W
Stoney.   2881   3   4   -1   W
hawk...   2859   3   10   -7   C
SemperG   2719   4   6   -2   C
Jeep...   2604   5   6   -1   W
Randal.   2569   5   7   -2   C
KLX....   2557   5   8   -3   W
Millerm   2530   5   6   -1   E
Spider.   2462   7   7   0   E
BigAlrc   2254   9   6   3   E
Dale...   1709   11   9   2   E


Biggest difference is that Hawk is woefully underperforming his rating. His pen just hasn't performed. KLX is a bit low, and Big A is a bit high. The rest are pretty close.


Offense
Code: Select all
Team Of   O   Rtg   Run   Dif   
JoeTJet   8399   3   2   1   W
SemperG   8261   4   6   -2   C
Jeep...   8260   4   6   -2   W
KLX....   8258   4   4   0   W
hawk...   8223   4   6   -2   C
toshiro   8117   5   4   1   C
Millerm   8070   5   6   -1   E
Stoney.   8056   5   6   -1   W
Spider.   8032   5   7   -2   E
Randal.   7795   7   7   0   C
Dale...   7648   8   7   1   E
BigAlrc   7213   10   10   0   E

Offense ratings, overall, are really close.

Code: Select all
Team PF   P+F   Rtg   Run   Dif   
BigAlrc   4960   2   4   -2   E
toshiro   5072   3   5   -2   C
Stoney.   5175   4   2   2   W
Randal.   5225   4   7   -3   C
hawk...   5364   6   10   -4   C
JoeTJet   5440   7   6   1   W
Millerm   5540   8   8   0   E
SemperG   5543   8   9   -1   C
Spider.   5570   8   6   2   E
Jeep...   5656   9   8   1   W
KLX....   5700   9   7   2   W
Dale...   5939   11   9   2   E


Hawk, is pretty off, Randall a bit off. The rest are close.
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klx22

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Re: NLD 58 Papelbon Closes 2021

PostSat Oct 30, 2021 8:08 am

Our team can't catch a break.
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Spider 67

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Re: NLD 58 Papelbon Closes 2021

PostSat Oct 30, 2021 8:37 am

Rating for my team confirms what I've felt from the start. This team just wasn't put together very well. I don't think I ever had a feel for this set.
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RandyW64

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Re: NLD 58 Papelbon Closes 2021

PostSat Oct 30, 2021 10:39 am

Spider 67 wrote:Rating for my team confirms what I've felt from the start. This team just wasn't put together very well. I don't think I ever had a feel for this set.


I’m with you there, Spider. It’s largely been hit or miss with me as well. Teams I thought would be good are sucking, and teams I wasn’t confident in have done okay. Rough going!
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joethejet

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Re: NLD 58 Papelbon Closes 2021

PostSun Oct 31, 2021 1:26 am

OMG, Stoney has lost 7 in a row. That's a tough stretch for such a good team.
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joethejet

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Re: NLD 58 Papelbon Closes 2021

PostSun Oct 31, 2021 2:03 am

I neglected to mention the rating expected results for each division.

Ratings would expect

East
Well, the four worst ratings are in the East. That doesn't happen much, but given that only one team is barely above .500 and no team has a positive run dif... it checks out. Milleram has the highest ratings and that would be the expected playoff team according to the ratings.

Central
toshiro has the best rating so, that would be the expected winner. They're up by 13 so this should be a cakewalk especially given the tough luck Hawk has run into

West
Ratings say that jtj and stones are the best teams with jtj being the expected winner. Stones is definitely a threat to win the division says the ratings.

WC
Stones or Hawk are the hands down favorites here with Semper being a dark horse.

Reality
The East is close between Miler and Big A, but Spider has a chance.
The central is over, toshiro has it all but wrapped up
West: JTJ has pulled away from Stones due to a tough stretch from the latter, but the ratins would say this will tighten up.
WC: Unless Stoney continues his freefall, the WC will likely be his or JTJ.

Luck factors

Big A, and jeep are the "lucky" team this time with miller pretty lucky.
Big A with singles, on card, one run and pythag
Jeep BIG HR roll differences and injury luck offset a little by bad rolls with bpsi

Unlucky
Stones and Hawk with Randal and KLX pretty unlucky
Stones - HUGE gap on HRs plus pythag
Hawk - Another bit HR gap with also not rolling on his card.


Code: Select all
Mgr .. .   SI   HR   1-R   Pyt   Rolls   UE/E   Inj   Luck Fctr
BigA...   +5%   -0%   +7   +7   +1.5%   71%   -3   3
Jeep...   -6%   +19%   -1   +2   -0.5%   71%   -105   3
Millerm   +11%   -7%   +5   +3   +0.9%   55%   -19   2
JTJ....   -4%   +3%   +4   +1   +1.2%   54%   +2   1
dale...   -2%   +1%   +1   +1   +1.1%   74%   -58   0
Semper.   +6%   +5%   +1   +1   -0.1%   80%   -33   -0.5
toshiro   -6%   +6%   +5   +1   -1.3%   58%   -26   -0.5
Spider.   -7%   +3%   -6   -1   +0.9%   23%   +16   -1.5
Randal.   +3%   -11%   -1   +1   -1.2%   58%   -16   -2
KLX....   -10%   -6%   -9   -10   -0.3%   59%   -33   -2
Hawk...   +1%   -15%   -2   0    -1.7%   56%   -42   -3
Stoney.   -2%   -23%   -4   -5   -0.3%   50%   -17   -3.5
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Stoney18

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Re: NLD 58 Papelbon Closes 2021

PostMon Nov 01, 2021 9:08 am

Help me! I've fallen and I can't get up.
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joethejet

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Re: NLD 58 Papelbon Closes 2021

PostMon Nov 01, 2021 4:56 pm

Hey Stones, Yeah, I'm shocked by your bad stretch. Looks like a LOT of close losses. Hang in there bud. You're still in playoff position and there's quite a bit of the season remaining.
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joethejet

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Re: NLD 58 Papelbon Closes 2021

PostThu Nov 04, 2021 12:44 am

Stoney18 wrote:Help me! I've fallen and I can't get up.


Good little run there Stoney. More like what I think your team should be doing!
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joethejet

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Re: NLD 58 Papelbon Closes 2021

PostFri Nov 05, 2021 2:11 am

Ok, ok, that's quite enough Stoney. Nine straight! You have a streaky team it appears.

Only divisional play from here on out, so let's see how things are shaping up.

This is an unusual NLD as the races are not as close as they usually are. Two of the divisions have 9 game leads and even the WC lead is 5 games. Only the East is tight and only four teams have positive run difs and one of those (the snakebit KLX) is 23 games out.

East
Apparently a 2 team race with Spider having an outside shot if he can get hot. Milleram has a great record in the division while Big A does not. That would *seem* to favor Milleram, but it's a dice game so who knows?

Central
The only team that has a positive run differential is up by 9 games. Semper will be hard pressed to make a real run at toshiro. It will have to be in the form of dominating the remaining games between the two teams. Randal just shed another $3 mil in cap so doesn't seem likely he can get back in it.

West
JTJ has a similar 9 game lead, BUT Stoney has won 9 straight after an awful stretch (note to those that panic, Stoney did not panic and cut salary cap) STones also has the second best run dif in the league so it's not over in the West, but similar to Semper, he will likely have to do well in the H2H games to catch JTJ. JTJ is up 14 games on the WC race so it's likely he'll make the playoffs even if Stones catches him.

WC
Stones has a 5 game lead over Semper, 7 over Big A, and 8 over Jeep. Semper has been making a move of late so it's not quite over. He's .500 in his division so far, but so is Stoney. The odds definitely favor Stones, but a hot streak by one of the other teams *could* make the WC race interesting.
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