nlD 53 - The "Big D" League

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joethejet

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Re: nlD 53 - The "Big D" League

PostWed Apr 29, 2020 1:46 pm

I hear ya! I've gotten through five games so far with my entire roster! Seems like a lot of teams have had injuries.

Semper and Big A are the only ones to avoid the injury bug so far.
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Spider 67

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Re: nlD 53 - The "Big D" League

PostFri May 01, 2020 9:18 am

I knew I was taking on injury risk with Stanton, but 3 injuries for 15 games is a bit much.

I'm still waiting for Ryu to start pitching. He's at the bottom of the league, so far.
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joethejet

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Re: nlD 53 - The "Big D" League

PostFri May 01, 2020 5:36 pm

Spider 67 wrote:I knew I was taking on injury risk with Stanton, but 3 injuries for 15 games is a bit much.



Wow! :shock: That's a tough break to be sure. Let's see 5% * 5% * %5. Carry the one and.... that's a small number! Ouch :o
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milleram

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Re: nlD 53 - The "Big D" League

PostFri May 01, 2020 8:16 pm

It is 15 games total in 3 injuries, not 45 games--so 5 games an injury, and that is really average on the injury list since no injury or remainder of game (4 of the 20 possibilities) shows on injury list. 80/16 = 5...actual average of injury length is 4 or 80/20, but as I said the injury list never shows the injury unless he actually misses a whole game.

A 6 injury should take an injury every 9 games played or so--he's dead on average for a 6 injury.
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joethejet

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Re: nlD 53 - The "Big D" League

PostSat May 02, 2020 2:16 am

milleram wrote:It is 15 games total in 3 injuries, not 45 games--so 5 games an injury, and that is really average on the injury list since no injury or remainder of game (4 of the 20 possibilities) shows on injury list. 80/16 = 5...actual average of injury length is 4 or 80/20, but as I said the injury list never shows the injury unless he actually misses a whole game.

A 6 injury should take an injury every 9 games played or so--he's dead on average for a 6 injury.


Oh, yeah, that's not all that unexpected I guess. You figure a 6 injury will miss about 1/3 of the games.
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joethejet

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Re: nlD 53 - The "Big D" League

PostSat May 02, 2020 2:47 am

Well, that sucked. Got swept by Miller at home. :(
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Spider 67

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Re: nlD 53 - The "Big D" League

PostSat May 02, 2020 9:36 am

milleram wrote:It is 15 games total in 3 injuries, not 45 games--so 5 games an injury, and that is really average on the injury list since no injury or remainder of game (4 of the 20 possibilities) shows on injury list. 80/16 = 5...actual average of injury length is 4 or 80/20, but as I said the injury list never shows the injury unless he actually misses a whole game.

A 6 injury should take an injury every 9 games played or so--he's dead on average for a 6 injury.



I usually plug 68% usage into my calc for a 6-injury player. Stanton was unavailable for 16.5 (count .5 per injury) for the first 32 games. He was injured 3 times in his first 18 games played. That's worse than the expected miss - but not way out. I'm counting on him to defy the odds. 8-)
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milleram

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Re: nlD 53 - The "Big D" League

PostSat May 02, 2020 3:25 pm

That calculation is probably closer than mine---I simplify by assuming 648 Plate appearances a year (which is a bit low unless batting down in lineup)

648 is simple because it is 3 times the 216 possible rolls, 6(injury)* 3 = 18 injuries a year. 162/18 = 9 games played per average injury---but he will miss 4 on average injury, so 9/13 = 69.2% games played--or 112 games played on average.

He won't get injured 18 times because he is missing 4 of every 13 games--so he really takes 12 or 13 injuries in a season.

680PA is what a lot of people assume.

In that case 680/216 = 3.14 so 6 * 3.14 = 18.84, 162/18.84 = 8.6, and 8.6/12.6 = 68.25% games played or 110 games played.

With 648 PA assumed this is my chart, not counting the green injury guys. This is in games worth of innings played in a way. Usually a 4 injury guy gets in 130 or so games--but some of them will be half games the day he got hurt.

1 = 150 games played on average
2 = 141
3 = 132.5
4 = 125
5 = 118
6 = 112

648 seems to work well for me as I often have my high injury guys remove for defense with a lead, which does knock their PA down just enough.
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Jeepdriver

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Re: nlD 53 - The "Big D" League

PostSun May 03, 2020 8:47 am

Interesting tidbit in the middle game last night with Smoke's squad, in a pretty wild 15 inning game we had only 3 LOB for the entire game. 7 HRs was a contributing factor, but nevertheless hard to do that.

Another tidbit I find interesting is that I've played only '12' Home Games compared to '27' Away Games.
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joethejet

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Re: nlD 53 - The "Big D" League

PostMon May 04, 2020 1:49 am

Jeep, those are some crazy numbers for sure. The fact that you're in first despite being on the road all the time doesn't bode well for the rest of your division!
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