Auto League 442029 - Let's have a chat

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joethejet

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Re: Auto League 442029 - Let's have a chat

PostMon Jan 13, 2020 3:15 pm

J-Pav wrote:Thx for the great post! :D

Is your FTF league just among friends, or is it a sanctioned thing like Strat TPC?


Glad you liked it! You write this stuff and you never know if anyone will/wants to read it. :)

Yeah, it's a bunch of guys who get together and we draft teams and play a 25 game season and then have the playoffs. As you can see by the finish in January, sometimes it's hard to get certain guys together to get the games in.

We've been doing this since 1989. Don't suppose you live in the SF Bay Area? We're looking for a replacement player for this year. ;)

Started on the ratings, maybe I'll finish tonight.
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joethejet

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Re: Auto League 442029 - Let's have a chat

PostMon Jan 13, 2020 4:44 pm

LOL, only won one game last night. A game in which Shoemaker out pitched deGrom. Go figure.

Well, "out pitched" might be stretching it a bit. He only went 5 and allowed 9 runners. Stammen came in for the last 4.

Sometimes it's *such* a dice game.
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joethejet

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Re: Auto League 442029 - Let's have a chat

PostTue Jan 14, 2020 4:44 pm

Ok, first post, basic info about the league.

Salary usage. Winning spend a lot more on the starting lineup than anyone else and it has showed. Froggy's and Crusaders at the bottom in hitting and at the top in pitching.

Probably the most interesting number is the $12 mil the Chinooks spent on the bench.

Code: Select all
.......   Linup   Pit.   Bch   SPs..   RPs..   Tot
Cheweni   35.6   39.6   4.7   29.51   10.09   79.92
Winning   52.5   23.1   4.5   12.45   10.60   80.00
killers   41.0   28.1   3.1   15.57   12.52   72.17
Rrunner   44.8   29.8   4.6   19.33   10.46   79.17
Crusade   29.2   42.4   8.1   31.69   10.72   79.67
Gobbler   42.3   33.2   3.0   22.65   10.54   78.54
froggys   26.2   49.7   3.0   24.85   24.83   78.80
Cynics.   35.5   37.5   7.1   25.33   12.12   80.00
Mahoots   38.9   34.3   6.8   21.80   12.46   79.96
Badgers   43.1   33.9   3.0   24.70   9.19    79.99
Epic...   40.9   33.2   3.6   17.48   15.71   77.69
Chinook   34.7   31.9   12.1   20.98   10.91   78.68
                  
Average   38.71   34.71   5.30   22.20   12.51   78.72


Ratings by Division

You can see the rating averages for the overall are balanced pretty good across the divisions.

The best O is in the West and best Pitching + Fielding is in the East. All of the ratings are adjusted for the parks the teams play in so that impacts the ratings too. So, the East has two pitcher's parks and that could be the reason, but it also has the best fielding which the parks don't affect.



Code: Select all
Divi   Offn   Ptch   Fld   P+F   Overall
East   7433   4794   462   5256   2176
Cent   7628   4830   618   5448   2180
West   7770   5109   547   5656   2114


Ok so a few words about the ratings. They are a form of WOBA, but the weightings are different and these ratings included running and stealing which wOBA does not. (More info here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WOBA)
You can get more information on the ratings at the link in my signature at the bottom of my posts.

So for hitters bigger is better, for pitching and fielding, lower is better.
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joethejet

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Re: Auto League 442029 - Let's have a chat

PostTue Jan 14, 2020 4:59 pm

Second Post. The ratings for each team.

The overall ratings take into consideration hitting/pitching and fielding. it was tough for a few teams as 2-3 have six man rotations which I'm not used to seeing and there is one team that changes its lineup all the time and plays guys at less than optimal positions frequently so they were tough to put into the formula. I will also add that teams that made a lot of moves all had higher ratings earlier in the season so, they may have more wins than the team I rated (the one they have now)

Also, I picked up the stats a couple of nights ago.

In these numbers, most are pretty close. The Cynics are much higher than the ratings would predict while the froggys and Winning are also a bit high. J, you' have the third best rating so it's not too surprising you have the best record, it's just that the Badgers have by far the highest rating and that skews things a bit. Skewed one run records often indicate a difference from the ratings and I think that's the case for the Cynics who are 22-12 although, this isn't always the case as Epic is +9 and is close to the expected and the froggys are -9 and have over performed their ratings. That's really odd.

On the other side of the equation the Gobbler's have underperformed their rating.

Code: Select all
Team Ov   Ovrl   Rtg   Rec   Dif   
Badgers   2713   1   1   0   C
JoeTJet   2522   3   3   0   E
Winning   2428   4   1   3   W
Statist   2373   4   5   -1   W
Gobbler   2364   4   8   -4   E
Mahoots   2250   5   6   -1   C
Crusadr   2208   5   6   -1   C
Cynics.   1986   8   3   5   W
Chiweni   1973   8   10   -2   E
Froggys   1847   9   6   3   E
Killers   1669   11   12   -1   W
Chinook   1549   12   11   1   C


Offense

This area had the most inconsistencies with the ratings, but only a few teams way off. the Froggys should have a terrible offense, but they haven't been half bad. Epic and Chinook OTOH, have under performed.

Code: Select all
Team Of   O   Rtg   Run   Dif   
Winning   8436   1   1   0   W
Badgers   7854   4   6   -2   C
JoeTJet   7836   4   4   0   E
Chinook   7812   4   7   -3   C
Gobbler   7646   6   8   -2   E
Mahoots   7625   6   7   -1   C
Killers   7610   6   8   -2   W
Statist   7600   6   10   -4   W
Cynics.   7434   8   7   1   W
Chiwenie   7284   9   11   -2   E
Crusadr   7223   9   9   0   C
Froggys   6966   12   7   5   E


Pitching + Fielding was close in general. The outliers were the Gobblers who be better and JTJ/Road Runners who should also be better. Most of the rest were pretty close.

Code: Select all
Team PF   P+F   Rtg   Run   Dif
Crusadr   5015   1   2   -1
Froggys   5119   2   1   1
Badgers   5142   2   2   0
Statist   5227   3   1   2
Gobbler   5282   4   7   -3
Chiwenie   5311   4   3   1
JoeTJet   5314   4   8   -4
Mahoots   5375   5   7   -2
Cynics.   5448   6   5   1
Killers   5941   10   9   1
Winning   6008   10   11   -1
Chinook   6262   12   12   0


Here are the fielding numbers. It takes a bit more work to get the comparison together so I doubt I will do it. Here are the raw numbers. You can see that Gobbler, JTJ and Epic are the best while the Chinooks are crazy bad. J, even though you weren't trying for D, you still ended up higher than some of these guys. I will say that fielding's impact on ratings is the biggest variables. For example, JTJ's lower than expected pitching could be due to the fact that his really good D hasn't had the expected impact. In other words when they do make a misplay, it ends up costing them. The X-Chart can be pretty random with its impact

Code: Select all
Fieldng   FRt
Gobbler   361
JoeTJet   388
Statist   388
Badgers   432
Mahoots   464
Chiwenie   482
Cynics.   485
Winning   568
Froggys   618
Crusadr   649
Killers   746
Chinook   928
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joethejet

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Re: Auto League 442029 - Let's have a chat

PostThu Jan 16, 2020 2:21 am

No Comments from anyone?

One reason I hate posting the ratings is my team always seems to tank after I do. Gave up 20 runs to the worst offense in the league tonight including a grand slam to Jon Jay. :mad: :cry:

Injuries are hurting us right now. Losing Rivera and then Wendle for 15 are tough blows for our squad.
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J-Pav

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Re: Auto League 442029 - Let's have a chat

PostThu Jan 16, 2020 11:02 am

I guess if I have a thought it’s regarding pitching and usage. I’ve seen a crazy number of low budget staffs outperform a lot of money spent by fellow competitors.
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J-Pav

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Re: Auto League 442029 - Let's have a chat

PostThu Jan 16, 2020 11:19 am

Although my team is performing well, it hasn’t kept pace with my homage to Axelrod.

His team is here:

https://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1512664

First in offense, second in pitching (by ERA), despite a low budget staff.

So while I get the “rankings” based on the salaries, there is a HUGE disconnect on the actual performances. And this is NOT an outlier. There are plenty of teams that followed this model just as successfully. Cristano’s tour finals team is loaded with sub $1 SPs.

So if salaries generally equate to performance, and rankings are based on salary (ie, more points for Nola and deGrom), why can a team with $20 mil spent on pitching so outperform $40 mil spent on pitching? It can’t all be defense, although the first clues can definitely be found there.
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freeman

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Re: Auto League 442029 - Let's have a chat

PostThu Jan 16, 2020 4:07 pm

Well, I think the difference is due to three factors: (1) the introduction of the S4 now allows teams to have relievers pitch two thirds of the game (the starter will go out after 3 innings) instead of coming in the 5th inning when there is trouble, (2) Some R3s like Strahm and Nuno that cost much less than aces can give you a massive number of innings (similar to a high-level *starter)at performance similar to an 8 or 9 million dollar starter for a cost of less than 4 million (Nuno costs 3 million), (3) and defense in low runner parks seems to have multiplier effects not reflected in salaries. So you go into Citizens/Great American, get good defense that allows your sub-1 million to survive three innings...come in with an R3 equal to ace starter...and you have a 60-65 million offense. Tough to beat. I had a 13 million dollar staff in Great American which had an ERA well under four. I have also noticed great defensive teams being very powerful in low baserunner parks.

I guess Strat might think about the unintended effects they caused with having the R4 and if theyre going to allow R3 to pitch 300 innings with a .99 WHIP and not much power given up...how to accurately price them.
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freeman

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Re: Auto League 442029 - Let's have a chat

PostThu Jan 16, 2020 4:32 pm

And, yeah, differences in player valuations are going to be small potatoes compared to the above strategies. Here is an example from Great American . The pitching staff costs 16.42. Nuno and Strahm combined for 600 innings and about a 3 era. What dollar value in performance would that be...15 million? Or more? For 7 million?

https://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1529289
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J-Pav

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Re: Auto League 442029 - Let's have a chat

PostThu Jan 16, 2020 4:50 pm

Thank you sir - great take! 8-)
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