NLD 52 - See See CC League

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joethejet

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Re: NLD 52 - See See CC League

PostThu Oct 24, 2019 1:21 am

It's a sign of the apocalypse! We won our first series after losing 8 straight! I guess even a blind squirrel finds a nut from time-to-time.
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joethejet

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Re: NLD 52 - See See CC League

PostFri Oct 25, 2019 1:24 am

Just realized that I still had LIndor and Mejia for KLX v LHP. I will have to redo the ratings. He dropped a fair amount (duh) due to that.

Luck factors coming out tomorrow....
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joethejet

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Re: NLD 52 - See See CC League

PostSat Oct 26, 2019 3:15 am

Luck Factors

Jeep is the luckiest wit plus numbers in bpsi and big plus in bphrs, plus a good ratio of being on his own card. Falcon is a tiny bit luck with bp singles and one runners.

JTJ is one of the unluckiest teams the factors have seen at an amazing -6.5. He's down big in singles and HRs, plus big in one runs and pythg plus more injuries than would be expected. I *thought* we had been unlucky, but this totally confirmed it. Team is snakebit so far and not much hope of it changing being so far back. After winning 2 series, got swept tonight. Pathetic.

Miller and Semp are -2, so a little unlucky . Semp in both BP numbers and Miler with rolls (big time) and unearn runes being offset a bit by the pythag win diff of +3.

Code: Select all
Mgr .. .   W   SI   HR   1-R   Pyt   Rolls   UE/E   Inj   Luck Fctr
Jeep...   70   +9%   +17%   +4   0    +1.5%   58%   -6   3.5
Falcon.   55   +8%   -6%   +6   +2   -0.2%   55%   -29   1.5
KLX....   68   +1%   +5%   -2   0    +1.2%   50%   -3   1
BigA...   64   +8%   +8%   -3   +1   -0.3%   68%   -38   0.5
Doug...   59   -7%   +2%   +4   0    -0.4%   48%   -47   0.5
Smokey.   68   -0%   +4%   +1   0    +1.2%   59%   +11   0
dale...   61   -8%   -5%   -1   +1   -0.7%   61%   -31   -0.5
Spider.   62   +10%   -12%   -4   -1   -0.2%   82%   -43   -1
Stoney.   63   -2%   -20%   +1   -2   -0.2%   38%   -40   -1
Millerm   58   -5%   +2%   +3   +3   -2.1%   79%   -27   -2
Semper.   66   -11%   -14%   +2   0    +0.6%   62%   -28   -2
JTJ....   62   -7%   -18%   -11   -5   -0.4%   54%   +15   -6.5

Last edited by joethejet on Tue Oct 29, 2019 1:21 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Spider 67

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Re: NLD 52 - See See CC League

PostSat Oct 26, 2019 8:16 am

Joe, I think I understand most of the luck factors(which are always interesting to see) except for my injury rating - where both my team and yours have similar injury days (actually the same after last night), but my rating is -47 and yours is +15. Do you consider "expected" injury levels - which would be high for my team?
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joethejet

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Re: NLD 52 - See See CC League

PostSat Oct 26, 2019 2:22 pm

Spider 67 wrote:Joe, I think I understand most of the luck factors(which are always interesting to see) except for my injury rating - where both my team and yours have similar injury days (actually the same after last night), but my rating is -47 and yours is +15. Do you consider "expected" injury levels - which would be high for my team?


Yes, that's the comparison, expected injuries versus actual. I think there is something a little off in my calculation because most teams end up with fewer than I expect so I compare to the average and teams that are outside one Std Deviation get a + or - for their luck factor.

Spider, you have only 2 guys who have 600 PA and one 5 injury and a 6 injury in your starters v RHP. Then your two platoon players are 6 and 4 injuries.

I have 4 600 PA with one that won't miss a game at all. Plus only 2, 2 injury guys. That's a big difference.
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Spider 67

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Re: NLD 52 - See See CC League

PostSat Oct 26, 2019 4:08 pm

Nice work with these ratings, Joe!

I took a big risk with injuries with this team. The bad luck angle is that Trout (28 games) is already above a full-season rate. Cordero is also above his 99-game expected injury rate. Flip side is that Wieters/Rivera only have 9 injury-games (with 30+ expected). I've had good luck with most of my other starters.
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milleram

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Re: NLD 52 - See See CC League

PostSat Oct 26, 2019 6:21 pm

With injury ratings--do you take into account a guy can't be injured when he is injured --so to speak.

If a guy goes down--he can't be hurt again till he comes off the injury list--so this tends to drive injury games down some overall--the effect gets larger the higher the injury rating---there was a whole big article about that a few years ago when I asked about injuries--Clowntime provided some nice math down the post..

viewtopic.php?f=5&t=632610
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Spider 67

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Re: NLD 52 - See See CC League

PostMon Oct 28, 2019 7:55 am

milleram wrote:With injury ratings--do you take into account a guy can't be injured when he is injured --so to speak.

If a guy goes down--he can't be hurt again till he comes off the injury list--so this tends to drive injury games down some overall--the effect gets larger the higher the injury rating---there was a whole big article about that a few years ago when I asked about injuries--Clowntime provided some nice math down the post..

viewtopic.php?f=5&t=632610


Thanks for that link. I think I must have seen that discussion. My ratings use very similar %s when evaluating players (rounded to nearest %).
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Jeepdriver

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Re: NLD 52 - See See CC League

PostMon Oct 28, 2019 8:05 am

Thanks Joe for the ratings. I don't think I'm using my pitching anomalously though.
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dalekeener

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Re: NLD 52 - See See CC League

PostMon Oct 28, 2019 11:47 am

I think a couple of subtle changes may be needed with my team. I have tried fielding practice and still to no avail. I think we may need to upgrade....there is bad defense and there is beyond stupid defense. :cry:
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