NLD 51 - The Ichiro Suzushi Han

My team is very dependent on injuries, or should I say "non-injuries." If we're healthy we usually play well, if a couple of players are injured, we struggle. Trout and Cruz are both out right now. We'll probably struggle until these two guys get back.

And a 4 game lead in the WC is anything but a lock.

Yeah, I guess when you're out 4 it seems insurmountable and when you're up 4 it seems infinitesimal.

We will see. I'll try to get to the luck factors this weekend.

Lost a couple of close ones in the bottom of the 9th against Doug tonight.

Hopefully we'll be better tomorrow. Getting late....

Luck Factors

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Mgr .. .   W   SI   HR   1-R   Pyt   Rolls   UE/E   Inj   Luck Fctr
JFrost.   63   +7%   -4%   +11   +6   -0.1%   48%   -39   3.5
KLX....   68   -3%   -5%   +2   +5   +1.5%   55%   -64   2
Semper.   66   -5%   +12%   -3   -4   -0.3%   52%   -33   1.5
Smokey.   68   -2%   +3%   +1   +2   -1.7%   40%   +17   1.5
BigA...   64   +7%   +10%   -5   -1   +1.5%   75%   -45   1
Spider.   62   -7%   +3%   0    +2   +1.4%   83%   +24   1
Doug...   59   -7%   -1%   +9   0    +0.1%   70%   +7   -0.5
Millerm   58   +9%   -2%   +8   -8   -0.1%   55%   -66   -1
JTJ....   62   +2%   -1%   +5   -5   +0.9%   58%   -31   -1
Jeep...   70   -3%   -6%   +3   -3   -0.2%   58%   +5   -2
dale...   61   +5%   -6%   -14   +1   +0.4%   54%   -48   -2.5
Falcon.   55   -3%   -12%   -5   +5   -3.0%   59%   -49   -3


JF is at the top of the chart. So far he's been lucky with singles, one run games and win diff. He's also really close on the Unearned runs to errors ratio. KLX is also been a bit "lucky" on injuries, card rolling and win diff, but down in bphrs.

At the other end, Falcon, dale, and Jeep have been unlucky. Falcon has been hurt bigly by BPHR rolls and rolling on his card. Surprisingly however, he has a better w/l than the pythag would suggest. Dale is also a bit surprising in that his very poor one run record isn't reflected by the pythag difference, but his poor hrs also hurt despite having an advantage on bpsi. Jeep is also hurt by HRs, but also by injuries.

Most everyone else is close enough.

Here are the fielding numbers

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Fieldng   FRt   Rtg   F%   Dif
Doug...   151   2   4   -2
JFrost.   181   2   3   -1
SemperG   234   3   4   -1
KLX....   311   4   6   -2
Jeep...   320   4   4   0
JoeTJet   325   4   2   2
Spider.   557   7   7   0
Falcon.   568   7   8   -1
Dale...   576   7   8   -1
BigAlrc   604   8   5   3
Smokey.   631   9   8   1
Millerm   783   11   11   0


Surprisingly JTJ is at the top, slighty over expected while Big A is even more over expected. Doug and KLX and under performing expectations.

As for the races, only 15 games remain.
The East is a three team race with only 2 games separating the top three. Dale has a chance to play the spoiler
Central is down to klx and Semper with klx up by three right now.
West is still a two team race with both teams struggling down the stretch. Jeep has struggled a bit more than JF however.

WC - Jeep sits 2 up on Doug and three on Smokey. He holds the tie breaker with both Doug and JTJ, but is tied with Smokey. Not sure who has the run dif there. Semper has an outside shot six back but with three teams to catch.

Another crazy NLD race with 7 teams holding playoff aspirations.

Jet, thanks for the numbers! Interesting! I have one factor that I tried to emphasize while drafting this season that I think I have succeeded with....Double Plays. I tried to pick a line-up that avoided them, while my pitching staff and defense was geared to turning them. I missed out on a d-1 ss, but the strategy has still been rewarded as I am +75 on DP's (140-65). That's a factor in your UE/E cat. as well.

Thanks Jay. Glad you like them.

Well, the ratings *do* take into account DPs. Not sure that would make a difference in the UE/E rating other than it erases errors the same as it erases singles.

My contention with the X-chart is that a lot of the damage (or not) is random. I've played enough FTF to see that errors can sometimes KILL you and at other times be irrelevant. (e.g. bases loaded two outs, 2 base error versus the same error with no one on and two out)

If you're not hitting into DPs, I would guess (without looking) that you strikeout or make outs that don't advance runners instead. Sometimes a GBA is a good thing to have. (e.g. runner on third with one out, infield back)

But, sure, DPs are a good thing to have (or avoid) no doubt about it.

Jay's comment made me curious about the relationship between double plays executed and errors vs. unearned runs and errors. I ran a regression for three PC leagues (sample size 36) to see the relationship between DP/E and UE/E (ie. do teams with high DPs per Error have lower UEs per error?).

The R-square of .003 indicates no significant relationship. Average DP / E = 1.66 Average UE /E = 0.60

I think the UE / E is one of the very interesting "luck" factors. Of the 36 teams in my model, one had 100 UEs with only 86 errors, while another had only 33 UEs with 86 errors (these were the extremes).

Jay's comment made me curious about the relationship between double plays executed and errors vs. unearned runs and errors. I ran a regression for three PC leagues (sample size 36) to see the relationship between DP/E and UE/E (ie. do teams with high DPs per Error have lower UEs per error?).

The R-square of .003 indicates no significant relationship. Average DP / E = 1.66 Average UE /E = 0.60

I think the UE / E is one of the very interesting "luck" factors. Of the 36 teams in my model, one had 100 UEs with only 86 errors, while another had only 33 UEs with 86 errors (these were the extremes).

Wow... you guys really get into the "math" of this. I'm impressed! I was just figuring that if an error is negated by a double play, then the unearned run has NO chance of scoring.

On a different note: If you avoid a double play offensively (even if you have an unproductive out), at least an additional batter gets to hit. (Of course, the converse happens defensively, one LESS batter to face).
Btw, the name is Jim, not Jay...
I really have enjoyed my chance to pinch-hit in the league this season....thanks!

Double play fun (continued):
This is from the 2018 teams I have fielded this year, just thought it to be interesting:
Comparing pct of total DPs me vs Opp to winning pct:
Team #1 Dp%: .449 W% .469
Team #2 .507 .524
Team #3 .645 .535 Won Champ
Team #4 .689 .593 (This league, current numbers)
Team #5 .534 .578 (Only 45 games played so far)

Ugh, Smokey is friggin' HOT. He's 10-1 and 12-2 over his past games. We're now tied and he owns the tiebreaker.

At least I have the tie breaker with Doug, but not Jeep. However, if one of the Central guys slip into a tie with me, I do have the advantage there.

Of course, things are so tight, who knows what's going to happen, but as it sits right now, despite the best run dif, I would be out and Smokey and Jeep would be in.

Hoping we can finish strong here.