NLD 48 - Now Panda-licious

Donaldson (2e22) has 17 errors and only 21 x outs from 39 chances in 68 games played (84 team games).

So, you're saying he's only allowed one hit??? That's pretty lucky, you'd expect 4 or 5 in 39 chances.

Seriously however, you would expect maybe 9-10 errors to go with that 4-5 hits so, he *should* be around 13-15 runners instead of 18. That is worse than what you would expect, but maybe not by as much as you thought......

We've been playing well, but some of that luck ran out tonight. Rizzo got hurt again and again for three games. That's four injuries for 10 games. Glad he's got 600 PA!

And speaking of errors Spider, with two on and two out, holding a one run lead, a SSx to my 1e7 SS who boots it. Rivera against Giles, hits a granny (BP 1-14) for a walk-off. Ouch. That's Galvis' 5th error of the season, he should make 7 so he's on pace for 9.

Giles has been awful, 1.41 whip and a 5+ ERA all season. BUT, he does have 10 saves in 12 chances sooooo, there's that.

And, go figure, we've been playing really well and barely gaining on either Semper or Smokey and tonight, we lose two, but gain a game on Smokey because he got swept. Go figure.

SOM can be pretty crazy.

And speaking of errors Spider, with two on and two out, holding a one run lead, a SSx to my 1e7 SS who boots it. Rivera against Giles, hits a granny (BP 1-14) for a walk-off. Ouch. That's Galvis' 5th error of the season, he should make 7 so he's on pace for 9.

Yeah, Galvis must have taken his eye off the ball with Rojas (only SPD 13) chugging down to first! An error from Galvis was the last thing I expected to keep me in the game.

And speaking of errors Spider, with two on and two out, holding a one run lead, a SSx to my 1e7 SS who boots it. Rivera against Giles, hits a granny (BP 1-14) for a walk-off. Ouch. That's Galvis' 5th error of the season, he should make 7 so he's on pace for 9.

Yeah, Galvis must have taken his eye off the ball with Rojas (only SPD 13) chugging down to first! An error from Galvis was the last thing I expected to keep me in the game.

Yeah, that was a bummer for me. Almost as bad as the game Rizzo (1e2) cost me, in a similar situation, earlier in the season.

Ratings.

Ok, 100 mil teams are generally good across the board and I think the ratings reflect that.

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Team...   O...   P...   F..   P+F.   Ovrl   Div
Smokey.   8705   4847   276   5123   3582   C
Stoney.   8677   5057   255   5312   3364   W
JoeTJet   8639   4979   300   5279   3360   C
SemperG   8052   4723   -18   4705   3347   C
Doug...   8443   4644   518   5162   3281   E
AKIndn.   8270   4525   521   5046   3224   W
Spider.   8587   4849   516   5365   3222   E
Gbrooke   7619   4364   255   4619   3000   W
BigAlrc   7730   4701   119   4821   2909   C
Jeep...   8358   5058   453   5511   2846   E
Dale...   8043   5018   231   5250   2794   E
Falcon.   8172   5130   367   5497   2675   W


Here is the division breakdown

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Divi   Offn   Ptch   Fld   P+F   Overall
East   8358   4892   430   5322   3036
Cent   8282   4812   169   4982   3300
West   8185   4769   349   5119   3066


The Central has the best overall, fielding, and P/F ratings. And they aren't that far behind in hitting.

Ratings
East - lowest rating division. Doug and Spider have the best ratings, but Jeep and Dale aren't *that* far behind. That said, the ratings would expect a two team race between doug and Spider.

Central - Three of the top four rated teams are in the Central. Smokey on the strength of his hitting, Semper on his fielding and JTJ sort of across the board. Big A's rating is the lowest but good enough in a different division. Ratings suggest a three team race with the losers great chances for the WC as long as they don't beat each other up too much.

West - Stoney's ratings are easily the class of this division. AK Should hang around the WC race with Falcon out of it and GB not a likely candidate.

Reality -

East - Doug has underperformed his ratings while Jeep (with a +9 one run) has over performed.

Central - Pretty much as predicted. Although Smokey with that rating and one run record would be expected to be in first. Given that he's a coors team maybe that's not a surprise. Total hitter park teams will underperform oftentimes.

West - Stones has not lived up to his rating leaving AK with first place. GB's .500 record isn't too far off his rating. Falcon is where he would be expected by the ratings.

All for now. Details later.

Falcon is where he would be expected by the ratings.

Translation: I just suck. And I don't disagree.

When does season 49 start? Redemption time can't come soon enough.

Falcon is where he would be expected by the ratings.

Translation: I just suck. And I don't disagree.

When does season 49 start? Redemption time can't come soon enough.

Yeah, sorry Falcon, it's not really me, it's just what the ratings say.

Overall ratings, Stones is way under, Jeep is way over. I can explain Jeep based on the one run record. Stones O has been less than expected. Everyone else is reasonably OK.

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Team Ov   Ovrl   Rtg   Rec   Dif   
Smokey.   3582   1   3   -2   C
Stoney.   3364   3   7   -4   W
JoeTJet   3360   3   3   0   C
SemperG   3347   3   2   1   C
Doug...   3281   4   6   -2   E
AKIndn.   3224   4   3   1   W
Spider.   3222   4   2   2   E
Gbrooke   3000   6   5   1   W
BigAlrc   2909   8   8   0   C
Jeep...   2846   8   4   4   E
Dale...   2794   8   9   -1   E
Falcon.   2675   10   8   2   W


Offense

The biggest differences are here. I haven't looked to see what's really going on, maybe you guys can check it out.

Stones and Doug are waaay below what the ratings think. Smper is way above. everyone else is close.

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Team Of   O   Rtg   Run   Dif   
Smokey.   8705   2   3   -1   C
Stoney.   8677   2   7   -5   W
JoeTJet   8639   2   4   -2   C
Spider.   8587   3   2   1   E
Doug...   8443   4   9   -5   E
Jeep...   8358   5   4   1   E
AKIndn.   8270   6   9   -3   W
Falcon.   8172   7   8   -1   W
SemperG   8052   8   4   4   C
Dale...   8043   8   8   0   E
BigAlrc   7730   11   12   -1   C
Gbrooke   7619   12   10   2   W

P+F

Dale has been a bit low as are Smoke (park?), Semper (over reliance on D?)

Only Spider and JTJ are over what you would expect.

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Team PF   P+F   Rtg   Run   Dif   
Gbrooke   4619   1   2   -1   W
SemperG   4705   2   5   -3   C
BigAlrc   4821   3   1   2   C
AKIndn.   5046   6   5   1   W
Smokey.   5123   7   10   -3   C
Doug...   5162   7   7   0   E
Dale...   5250   8   12   -4   E
JoeTJet   5279   8   5   3   C
Stoney.   5312   8   8   0   W
Spider.   5365   9   6   3   E
Falcon.   5497   11   9   2   W
Jeep...   5511   12   10   2   E

I started late drafting pitching and even then didn't get ideal pitchers for my park in time so I expected to give up runs but thought the offense would be better. I know Citizen's will suppress batting average a little but,

Votto .244
Cano .258
Arenado .223
Kiermaier .223
Winker .232

are all under what I expected. Only one player with slugging above .500 is unexpected as well.

I think luck factors have been a bit in my favor to date - injuries could have been much worse and BPSIs have been kind to my team. I'm not sure why pitching / fielding have been better than expected -unearned runs should be a bit worse than my 65 errors would indicate. I dropped Betances, Rodney and Loup for some less volatile relievers, but only Kelly has made a difference, so far. Trade-off of Avila for Rivera has worked well - Avila wasn't used much and Rivera has provided better defense while giving some hitting.