nld 47 - Jack Makes the Hall Edition

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joethejet

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Re: nld 47 - Jack Makes the Hall Edition

PostSat Apr 21, 2018 2:20 pm

Stoney18 wrote:Three days ago a was thinking about posting how my team was top in runs scored and runs against. Then I lose 9 in a row. I may never post again or even think about it.


Ha! You had the reverse jinx! You didn't post so you tanked, but IF you would have posted you wouldn't have! :lol:

Thanks for that, I REALLY needed a sweep. :P Especially given that I'm facing the RED HOT GB with 8 in a row and 9 of 10.
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Spider 67

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Re: nld 47 - Jack Makes the Hall Edition

PostSat Apr 21, 2018 5:54 pm

Well, my guys finally decided to play last night - finishing with a 19-0 win vs. Jeep. :shock:
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BigAlric

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Re: nld 47 - Jack Makes the Hall Edition

PostSun Apr 22, 2018 5:44 am

The Braumeisters season already is over. :oops:
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joethejet

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Re: nld 47 - Jack Makes the Hall Edition

PostMon Apr 23, 2018 5:25 pm

Ouch, a 1-2 bpsi leads to Petit's 12th (!) BS of the season. He's been a bust for us for sure. The biggest reason we're not doing well is tied to his dismal performance so far 4.48 ERA in a pitcher's park. Miller is somewhat close with 9 BS and colome has 7, but he's got twice (or more) what anyone else in the league has.

Hard to believe our pitching staff is dead last in runs allowed playing in Oakland behind a decent D. :? Haven't done the full ratings last, but I'm pretty sure I'll be way off on O and D.
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Spider 67

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Re: nld 47 - Jack Makes the Hall Edition

PostMon Apr 23, 2018 10:17 pm

joethejet wrote:Ouch, a 1-2 bpsi leads to Petit's 12th (!) BS of the season. He's been a bust for us for sure. The biggest reason we're not doing well is tied to his dismal performance so far 4.48 ERA in a pitcher's park. Miller is somewhat close with 9 BS and colome has 7, but he's got twice (or more) what anyone else in the league has.

Hard to believe our pitching staff is dead last in runs allowed playing in Oakland behind a decent D. :? Haven't done the full ratings last, but I'm pretty sure I'll be way off on O and D.



I hate reading this, since I picked up Petit in my PC Event 1 league which begins tonight. "Say it ain't so, Joe!"

Sidebar: I now have guys sitting out for 150 games. I know I planned injury risk, but sheesh.

I may be overreacting things, but have wild pitches become much more frequent? Maybe I'm just picking guys with higher WP ratings, but I'm sometimes getting 2 and three in an inning this set. I suspect I'm undervaluing the effect in my player ratings.

I'll be interested in JTJ's ratings. I think I'm close on Defense at .981 and 62 errors, but 39 unearned runs seems a bit high.
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joethejet

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Re: nld 47 - Jack Makes the Hall Edition

PostThu Apr 26, 2018 7:53 pm

I have the raw calcs for the ratings done, and hope to get it out tonight.

Probably won't get to the "luck factors" right away however. Takes a fair amount of time to go through each time and copy/paste the info into a spreadsheet.

A quick look showed me why my team is so underperforming its rating. Our pitching is the worst in the league and should not be this bad.
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joethejet

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Re: nld 47 - Jack Makes the Hall Edition

PostFri Apr 27, 2018 12:19 am

Yikes! This is an ugly injury report.

Your Current Injuries
Carrera, Ezequiel, through Game 97
Hernandez, Cesar, through Game 97
Goldschmidt, Paul, through Game 98
Petit, Yusmeiro, through Game 104

Recently Off the Injured List
Anderson, Chase, healthy for Game 93
Alexander, Scott, healthy for Game 96
Murphy, Daniel, healthy for Game 97

This is the fourth time Goldschmidt has gone out. Also note that I have lost three pitchers in the last few days including Petit for the next 8! :( Ouch

Did I mention we're playing the mighty Falcon next?
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FALCON29

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Re: nld 47 - Jack Makes the Hall Edition

PostFri Apr 27, 2018 12:12 pm

joethejet wrote:Did I mention we're playing the mighty Falcon next?

You mean you're playing the team you're 6-3 against this season? yes, that's them.
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joethejet

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Re: nld 47 - Jack Makes the Hall Edition

PostFri Apr 27, 2018 5:57 pm

Heck, you might be the only team I've gotten lucky against! Given that you have the best record in the league and by far the best record in one run games and I'm without three starters in game one and without Petit for the entire series (plus 5) I'm definitely the underdog! ;) :lol:
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Re: nld 47 - Jack Makes the Hall Edition

PostFri Apr 27, 2018 11:55 pm

Overall Ratings

Code: Select all
Team...   O...   P...   F..   P+F.   Ovrl   Div
SemperG   7899   4999   27   5026   2873   W
JoeTJet   8044   4983   470   5453   2591   W
Smokey.   8039   5339   191   5529   2510   C
Stoney.   7774   4856   419   5275   2499   E
BigAlrc   7773   5020   311   5331   2442   C
Falcon.   7965   5097   432   5530   2435   W
AKIndn.   8046   5406   253   5659   2387   C
Doug...   8061   5029   713   5743   2318   E
Spider.   8210   5113   862   5974   2235   E
Gbrooke   7970   5146   595   5741   2229   E
Jeep...   8121   5458   581   6039   2083   W
Dale...   7135   5452   238   5691   1444   C

Totals

Code: Select all
Divi   Offn   Ptch   Fld   P+F   Overall
East   8004   5036   647   5683   2320
Cent   7748   5304   248   5553   2196
West   8007   5134   378   5512   2495


Overall

Code: Select all
Team Ov   Ovrl   Rtg   Rec   Dif   
SemperG   2873   1   6   -5   W
JoeTJet   2591   3   5   -2   W
Smokey.   2510   4   4   0   C
Stoney.   2499   4   3   1   E
BigAlrc   2442   5   8   -3   C
Falcon.   2435   5   2   3   W
AKIndn.   2387   5   7   -2   C
Doug...   2318   6   7   -1   E
Spider.   2235   7   9   -2   E
Gbrooke   2229   7   3   4   E
Jeep...   2083   9   10   -1   W
Dale...   1444   12   11   1   C


Offense

Code: Select all
Team Of   O   Rtg   Run   Dif   
Spider.   8210   1   4   -3   E
Jeep...   8121   3   8   -5   W
Doug...   8061   4   4   0   E
AKIndn.   8046   4   6   -2   C
JoeTJet   8044   4   4   0   W
Smokey.   8039   4   4   0   C
Gbrooke   7970   5   5   0   E
Falcon.   7965   5   2   3   W
SemperG   7899   6   4   2   W
Stoney.   7774   9   5   4   E
BigAlrc   7773   9   4   5   C
Dale...   7135   12   11   1   C


Defense
Code: Select all
Team PF   P+F   Rtg   Run   Dif   
SemperG   5026   1   5   -4   W
Stoney.   5275   4   1   3   E
BigAlrc   5331   4   9   -5   C
JoeTJet   5453   5   9   -4   W
Smokey.   5529   6   4   2   C
Falcon.   5530   6   5   1   W
AKIndn.   5659   7   5   2   C
Dale...   5691   7   7   0   C
Gbrooke   5741   8   5   3   E
Doug...   5743   8   6   2   E
Spider.   5974   11   8   3   E
Jeep...   6039   12   9   3   W


Lots of differences this time around.

The West is the best in the ratings with an average rating of 2495. Part of that is because of Semper's off the chart rating of 2873. Of course, that's balanced by Jeep's not so good rating. The Central isn't as bad as the combined rating would indicate because Dale is just so bad, working with a LOT less salary cap than everyone else. The West has the best hitting and P/F.

East
Stoney is the class of this division. GB is over performing. The other two are about right.

Stoney - Rating and results are about the same, but he is way over in offense and is also over in p/f. Go figure. Way the best team in the East. Ratings say he should win it fairly easily.
Doug - Is pretty close to ratings across the board. The East's other three teams are bunched a little, but Doug is the second best by a little.
Spider - Should be better offensively, but pretty close in terms of ratings because his pitching has been the same amount better.
GB - Completely fooling the ratings. The +5 in one run games help. The pythag says he should be around .500. Has a lot of match up players so that helps fool the ratings. His pitching has over performed a good bit and that is probably a large reason why he's been better than expected.

Central
Ratings say that Smoke is the best here with a decent gap to Big A. Ak is close to Big A and Dale is not good. The others should pad their records with their games against him.

Smokey - Dead on in ratings and hitting a bit high in pitching.
Big A - Should be better according to the ratings. Interesting team in that his O is +5 and his pitching is -5. Not sure what to make of that. Pythag is only off by three games.
AK - a little below according to the ratings, butnot much. hitting a little low, pitching a little up.
Dale - When you're working with a 68 mil Salary "cap" it's hard to be good in the ratings.

West
Semper's rating is completely skewed by his fielding BUT he actually has a decent offense and pitching to go with it. Extreme teams are always dicey with the ratings. JTJ should compete with Semper for first. Falcon is a decent team that should be a dark horse and Jeep is aways back.

Semper - Way behind in rating (but we covered that) His O is a tad high, but his p/f is below. Fielding is always a crap shoot to depend on.
JTJ - Below in terms of rating. Dead on in run scored, but HORRIBLE in p/f. Shouldn't be the worst p/f team.
Falcon - Above in ratings, mostly due to a +10 in one run games. His pythag would put him closer to where he should be. His O has been better than expected but his p/f is about what you'd expect.
Jeep - Rating lags quite a bit. BUT his O has been much worse than expected. OTOH, his pitching has been a bit better.

Given the current situation, the ratings would expect:

Stones to pull away from GB and GB fall short in the WC race.
Smokey to hold onto his lead and Ak to hang in on the WC race
Falcon has such a big lead it's hard to see him not winning the division. The ratings expect both Semper and JTJ to close the gap and get into the WC race.

Thoughts?
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