nld 47 - Jack Makes the Hall Edition

Don't have time to comment, but I did this last night so I'll leave this here for your viewing. Feel free to comment.

Luck Factors

Code: Select all

Mgr .. .   W   SI   HR   1-R   Pyt   Rolls   UE/E   Inj   Luck Fctr
Stoney.   63   +4%   -1%   +7   0    +0.3%   42%   -57   3
BigA...   64   +4%   +9%   -4   -3   +0.9%   68%   +45   1.5
Falcon.   55   -3%   +1%   +5   +5   -0.1%   51%   -47   1.5
JTJ....   62   -1%   -3%   +3   0    +2.1%   51%   -20   1.5
Gbrooke   68   -1%   -3%   +5   +8   +0.6%   76%   -35   0.5
dale...   61   +5%   -11%   -1   +6   -0.3%   55%   -38   -0.5
AKIndin   58   +6%   -8%   -2   -1   -0.8%   53%   -20   -0.5
Smokey.   68   -4%   -2%   -4   -2   -0.5%   54%   -14   -0.5
Semper.   66   +1%   +1%   +2   0    -0.9%   46%   -3   -1
Doug...   59   +1%   -13%   0    -5   -0.4%   37%   -2   -2
Jeep...   70   -11%   -3%   -11   0    -0.9%   52%   -91   -3
Spider.   62   -4%   +4%   -6   -10   -0.2%   60%   +52   -4


Fielding

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Fieldng   FRt Rtg   F%   Dif
SemperG   27   1   1   0
Smokey.   191   3   2   1
Dale...   238   4   3   1
AKIndn.   253   4   2   2
BigAlrc   311   5   7   -2
Stoney.   419   7   3   4
Falcon.   432   7   5   2
JoeTJet   470   7   6   1
Jeep...   581   9   7   2
Gbrooke   595   9   8   1
Doug...   713   11   9   2
Spider.   862   12   12   0


Wow, you guys must have had a busy weekend, not a single comment?

So, Stoney has, apparently, been the luckiest team with one run games, bpsi and lack of unearned runs. That rating should probably 2.5 instead of 3 however. Falcon's luck is mustly tied to his one run record and Big A with both his BP ratings plus rolling on his card. JTJ has been lucky with card rolling.

For unlucky look no further than Spider. Singles, one run, run diff and injuries have not treated him well. Jeep has also been farily unlucky with large different in bpsi plus a poor card rolling, one run record. He's been lucky with injuries however.

None of the rest are far off really and even the 1.5 ratings aren't really a big deal.

As for fielding, Stoney's has been much better than expected and Big A lower, but the rest are generally close enough.

Added some comments above.

The races are coming down to the wire. Falcon had a big series win with Semper who has been very hot and has closed the gap. Our playoff chances hinge on beating Semper which we have been terrible at so far. We're four back of the WC spot and have six games left with him. We have to at least win four of those games and we'd still have to figure out a way to gain three more games as we wouldn't have the tie breaker. Really, we'll have to go 5-1 unless Semp just tanks against other teams or we can actually sweep someone. We've been playing well for the most part, taking series mostly, but haven't been able to sweep to really make a move. Semper, in the mean time has swept 4 times in the last 10 while losing only 3 series.

Our odds aren't great, but we'll see how the dice roll. We're 5-13 with him so maybe we can flip that script.

Oh and we'd still have to beat out GB at the same time as we also trail him by a game, but we hold the tie breaker there.

As for the other races, Stoney has it all but wrapped up, Smokey and AK will likely go down to the wire, but the loser, probably, won't be in the WC race. Falcon needs to hold of Semper, but even if he doesn't, it's unlikely that GB or JTJ can catch him for the WC.

I've been too bummed out with this team to comment.

Poor luck hasn't really made much difference. I took a lot of risk with injuries and fielding and a poor staff - getting what I deserve.

The Lucky Pylons are just trying to hang on for dear life, and no doing a very good job of it.

Why does this always happen to me?

If I talk about ratings or my team then my luck will run out.

The Lucky Pylons are just trying to hang on for dear life, and no doing a very good job of it.

Why does this always happen to me?

First 103 games: 65-38 .631
Record since: 22-25 .468

Opposition Batters hitting off their own cards:
First 103 games: .277 / .354 / .509 / .863
Game 104 to now: .300 / .381 / .544 / .925

What's up with that?

Luck?

Why should I even try to talk about something NOBODY on my team has EVER seen??? Why? We don't know that stuff.

Well, I gotta say that 1.5 of "luck" factors isn't much.

Falcon you stopped the bleeding a bit tonight with the help of Petit's 17th BS against 28 saves. 62% isn't what you expect for almost $5 mil in salary and he's a big reason that we're on the outside looking in for the playoffs.

Pretty much have to sweep Semper in this next series and hope that GB cools off too. Not looking good for the Mighty Oaks.

Welp, we're done. lost 2 of 3. Our record against Semper (8-16) is all the difference in the season. We have a positive record against most teams and the one we dont' are 5-7. Semp just kicked our butt and that's why we'll almost certainly miss the postseason. Oh well.

Well, it's probably too little too late, but we managed to sweep Falcon including a couple of one run wins. The first one was a crazy extra inning game in which we had 3 BS (yes, including one by Petit) but still won.

10th inning, Murphy hits HR for us, but Falcon answers with a single to score a run and leaves the bases loaded
11th Gentry doubles in one for us, but Narvaez is gunned at the plate (1-12) to end the inning. Bottom of the inning Jay hits a bphr off of the pitchers card, but,oh yeah, he's weak so it's a single! A run scores but no walk-off. Reddick follows with a 2b,BUT Jay is thrown out at the plate (also 1-12) Moustakas grounds out on a SSx with two on to end the inning.
12th - Goldschmidt hits a bphr (1-11) and, finally, Hughes gets a 1-2-3 inning for the win. Crazy game.

The second game featured ANOTHER BS by Petit (#19) Goldschmidt wins again, this time in the 10th with a 1-8 HR off of Sale's card.

Game three was pretty boring by comparison, a 6-3 win for us.

So, two back of Semper and 3 back of GB.

So, I just need to sweep Jeep and have Falcon sweep Semper and Stoney sweep GB. Easy right?

Guess here's to hoping!