- Posts: 1706
- Joined: Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:10 pm
Let's see how well this worked.
I've listed all 24 teams in descending order of predicted "goodness." Preseason predicted ranks expressed as percentile under the normal curve, with ACTUAL 2008 record in parentheses:
BEST GROUP (average wins: 101)
BOOMERS - 97.38% (113-49)
THE RANCH - 94.06% (113-49)
ASTARTES - 82.64% (100-62)
CLUB 62 - 80.51% (94-68)
KNIGHTS - 79.95% (97-65)
TORNADOES - 74.86% (88-74)
GOOD GROUP (average wins: 88)
VORTEX - 73.57% (91-71)
BREWERS - 73.24% (88-74)
SWAMPERS - 72.24% (93-69)
DUDES - 72.24% (79-83)
MONKEYS - 57.53% (104-58)
SKIPPED - 56.36% (70-92)
MEDIOCRE GROUP (average wins: 76)
JOES - 51.99% (90-72)
ISLANDERS - 51.99% (82-80)
REWIND - 48.01% (77-85)
HOMERS - 31.92% (55-107)
BRNSTRMRS - 25.46% (86-76)
INQUISITORS - 24.51% (68-94)
BOTTOM GROUP (average wins: 59)
MACAROONS - 19.49% (48-114)
CLOWNS - 16.85% (57-105)
LONG RUN - 13.79% (65-97)
VISITORS - 12.10% (79-83)
BALLS FIRE - 3.75% (66-96)
50W 112L - 2.28% (41-121)
The biggest outliers were the Visitors, who won 79 games with the third-worst roster, and the Monkeys, who won 104 games with a barely above-average roster.
Confounding variables:
- GM/Manager skill
- tanking vs. contending approaches late in season
- trades
- strength of division opponents
Conclusion: Team salary was highly correlated with team wins.
I've listed all 24 teams in descending order of predicted "goodness." Preseason predicted ranks expressed as percentile under the normal curve, with ACTUAL 2008 record in parentheses:
BEST GROUP (average wins: 101)
BOOMERS - 97.38% (113-49)
THE RANCH - 94.06% (113-49)
ASTARTES - 82.64% (100-62)
CLUB 62 - 80.51% (94-68)
KNIGHTS - 79.95% (97-65)
TORNADOES - 74.86% (88-74)
GOOD GROUP (average wins: 88)
VORTEX - 73.57% (91-71)
BREWERS - 73.24% (88-74)
SWAMPERS - 72.24% (93-69)
DUDES - 72.24% (79-83)
MONKEYS - 57.53% (104-58)
SKIPPED - 56.36% (70-92)
MEDIOCRE GROUP (average wins: 76)
JOES - 51.99% (90-72)
ISLANDERS - 51.99% (82-80)
REWIND - 48.01% (77-85)
HOMERS - 31.92% (55-107)
BRNSTRMRS - 25.46% (86-76)
INQUISITORS - 24.51% (68-94)
BOTTOM GROUP (average wins: 59)
MACAROONS - 19.49% (48-114)
CLOWNS - 16.85% (57-105)
LONG RUN - 13.79% (65-97)
VISITORS - 12.10% (79-83)
BALLS FIRE - 3.75% (66-96)
50W 112L - 2.28% (41-121)
The biggest outliers were the Visitors, who won 79 games with the third-worst roster, and the Monkeys, who won 104 games with a barely above-average roster.
Confounding variables:
- GM/Manager skill
- tanking vs. contending approaches late in season
- trades
- strength of division opponents
Conclusion: Team salary was highly correlated with team wins.